NCAA wk 13

Megalocks line 9

Sagarin 12 

Another crappy season for Tulane their fans deserve better - and from what our AAC INSIDERS tell us - HC Johnson is on the way out....Lots of bad vibes and disappointment from what we read which is another reason we like the game in addition to seeing some perceived value compared to PRs.

Tulane has had a couple of moments - led Memphis 13-0 before giving up 41 straight - they actually OUTGAINED navy ....lost to an ok UConn team by 4.....But really they are an interesting combo of really bad offense bad defense and bad special teams. 

Tulsa is a definite strong lean. May add to the card. The only thing to lean on and it is a stretch....but as you know - we always look at both sides....Tulsa's D is worse than Tulane's and any team that gives up well over 500/game is hard to trust laying a TD on the road.....they only beat FAU by 3.....UCF by 15 and were lucky to beat ULM by 10 ...all those games at home - so it is not unthinkable that they could be a little tight in this one and come out slow.....Tulsa needs this to be bowl eligible so FWIW that may or may not help. We will also add that Tulsa going with Joseph at QB who we are not impressed with AND plan to use redshirt FR Cuiellette so without any film for Tulsa to watch maybe that helps ?

Summary....Lean Tulsa at -7 or better. May make the final card not sure yet.

mega

I KID YOU NOT i have that exact thing written on my notepad now !

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 10 

Really tough game to get a handle on due to the maddening inconsistency of Boise St......Here are some of their accomplishments........+70 ATS over 2 game stretch....-56 ATS over a 2 game stretch....They turned it over 8 times in one game....Lost a game in which they had 40 first downs while their opponent had 11.....and last week - were +4 in turnover margin at home and still lost SU as a DD fav while giving up 600Y

Last 3 games have given up 27 31 37 so while their D is ranked 19th do not see them as the brick wall we are used to seeing....and there is questionable motivation for them as well.

SJ ? Well they have a 1400Y RB and play very smart football....they also need to get the win for 6 wins and bowl eligibility FWIW.....Lost by 1 at home to BYU.

We lean to SJ but not adding it to the official card b/c they are coming back from Hawaii and have a short week to prepare AND like we said - Boise SO unpredictable....SJ ranked #1 in PY against but have played a wk set of QBs.

Summary. Lean to SJ at 7 or better. Not sure about the total yet. SJ ML would not be the dumbest bet on the board.

mega

Follow for picks every week!

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 8

1. Power ratings. See some perceived value in the line.

2. Matchup - WK has a great offense. Marshall has a very good defense....Now we will get to They Have Played Nobody down below - but both teams play in the same conference - and Marshall is #1 in conf in yds per play D (4.5 !) and #1 in the conf in Opp QB Rating....while allowing only 10 TD vs 14 INT and 5.2 yds per attempt.

3. They have had a weak schedule. Fine. So has WK. Here are the last 7 teams WK has beat.....FIU FAU ODU NTex MTSU Rice Mia Oh .....Now Marshall last 7 wins.....Char NT FAU SMiss ODU Kent ....At least SMiss was a good win. The point? ESPN will tell you Marshall has played nobody but the entire conf other than WK LT and Marshall are TRASH....Soooooooo....what we are saying is that on any given day we put those 3 teams pretty close to one another and for real like for real do not think WK is DD better.

4. Marshall is balanced on offense and WK D is suspect. Marhsall #2 in rushing in the conf and their QB only has 5 int all year.

5. If it means anything. Revenge. Do not put much stock in this but is a nice addition. Last yr Marshall was 11-0 heading for certain glory in the last wk undefeated blah blah - they LOST to WK....as 23 pt favs. All that means is a tiny bit more focus.

GL mega

Tomorrow one more Friday game - Navy / Houston - then a bunch of Sat games to do for you.

MEGA

i know u said you would play down to pickem only but isnt -1.5 about the same thing?

otherwise ML is -125

thoughts?

Hey bro. Well I am very picky with the games I go full throttle and I know it drives people nuts but my rules save me money every year. TT -1.5 I would only go 1/2 size wager. GL man! 

added south fla -22.5 as well, how can you not?  

Happy eats tommorrow Mega, do Canadiens just say fuk it and celebrate with us or what?  not sure what the tradition is in Canada?

supercomputer no.3 shows 99.8% probability of Texas winning by 1 point, you win, followers lose, 3 people jump off buildings, 2 assault their wives, 1 kicks neighbors dog......Happy Thanksgiving for everyone involved 

Hey bro !

1. Ha. I cannot find a real reason to not hammer Tulsa other than I hate playing faves Td + 

2. Yup. I'm going for a middle on so flo hope to see it fly up tomorrow

3.  We had our Thanksgiving but having turkey tomorrow for dinner in honor of USA ! Happy holidays bud

Entirely possible. 

Hope it works out bro !! GL. Enjoy the game. 

now I'm gonna google "Canadien Thanksgiving", I know almost nothing about Canadien traditions 

Happy Holidays my brotha 

When will you post your Locks or can you give a summary of what you already (locked in)?

Love your work sir keep it up!