Posted:
#276
I know you're Canadian, Mega, but Happy Thanksgiving from your neighbors to the South!d :)
NCAA wk 13
Posted:
#279
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
next pick
next pick
FLORIDA ST -2.5
(write-up next)
1. Florida St will be able to do much more on offense in this game and at the end of the day - barring a bunch of turnovers - actually moving the ball and scoring points wins more games than not. And Florida St has only turned it over 10 times all year so do not think that will be a huge problem. Obviously Cook is fantastic - almost 1500Y 16 TD 8 yds a pop....Nice receiving targets and Whitfield is developing nicely. Of course Florida's D is fantastic - no argument there - but there are banged up quite a bit on the DL and even with their depth - AND the injuries on the Fla St OL - in a game we expect to be low scoring - Florida St is the team more likely to make the big play IMO whether it is running or MATRICULATING in the passing game.
2. Florida offense is a mess. Stats Cruncher Averages Guy will not realize how much more dangerous Florida was with Grier under center. As we all know Florida has barely escaped Vandy and Florida Atlantic WTFFFFF - and in particular last game vs FAU they had to go to OT and gave up 5 sacks.....In fact - Florida is now dead LAST in the SEC in sacks allowed and 11th in TFL allowed. Florida St D is not what it has been but they must be licking their chops waiting to go against that Florida OL.
3. Good offenses can score on Florida. EC got 24. Tenn 27. LSU 35. Last 4 games Fla got the offenses of GA, SC FAU Vandy this is a bit of a step up in class.
4. Stats Cruncher Averages Guy will also be missing the fact that Florida St is a much more dangerous team with Maguire under center at least teams need to respect the medium to deep pass now.
5. If it comes down to FG - ummm - we will take Aguayo. Not as deadly as last yr but a better option that Florida has at PK.
6. We like Jimbo a lot has been in a bunch of big games - yes he had Winston - but this is McElwain's biggest game yet - only to be surpassed next game vs Bama.
7. The Swamp. Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy should note Florida St has won the last 2 here....yes with a slightly better QB. Also - while they were day games - Florida at home this year was life and death to beat Vandy and FAU and probably should have lost to the Vols. We are just saying for real like for real - Florida St will be able to handle it IMO.
GL mega
Posted:
#282
 THREAD SUMMARYPicks Texas Tech +1.5 (would play down to pk em) Marshall +10.5 (would play down to +10) Florida St -2.5 (would play up to -3) Write-ups Tuesday - BGreen/Ball (6) NIU/Ohio(23) Thursday - UCF/SF (36) TT/Texas (53) Friday - Kent/Akron(88) Toledo/WM (97) Friday - TCU/Baylor(100) Neb/Iowa (128) Friday - Chips/EM (141) Pitt/Mia(170) Friday - Buff/UMass(171) Ga St/Troy (178) Friday - Oregon/Ore St (189) Ark/Mizz (191) Friday - Wash/Wash St (199) Tulane/Tulsa(201) Friday - Boise/SJ (204) Marshall/WKU (207) Sat - SC / Clemson (252) GT/Georgia (254) Friday - Navy/Houston (267) Sat - Tenn/SC (268) Florida/Fla St (279) next up - rest of SEC |
Posted:
#284
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
next pickFLORIDA ST -2.5(write-up next)
1. Florida St will be able to do much more on offense in this game and at the end of the day - barring a bunch of turnovers - actually moving the ball and scoring points wins more games than not. And Florida St has only turned it over 10 times all year so do not think that will be a huge problem. Obviously Cook is fantastic - almost 1500Y 16 TD 8 yds a pop....Nice receiving targets and Whitfield is developing nicely. Of course Florida's D is fantastic - no argument there - but there are banged up quite a bit on the DL and even with their depth - AND the injuries on the Fla St OL - in a game we expect to be low scoring - Florida St is the team more likely to make the big play IMO whether it is running or MATRICULATING in the passing game.2. Florida offense is a mess. Stats Cruncher Averages Guy will not realize how much more dangerous Florida was with Grier under center. As we all know Florida has barely escaped Vandy and Florida Atlantic WTFFFFF - and in particular last game vs FAU they had to go to OT and gave up 5 sacks.....In fact - Florida is now dead LAST in the SEC in sacks allowed and 11th in TFL allowed. Florida St D is not what it has been but they must be licking their chops waiting to go against that Florida OL.3. Good offenses can score on Florida. EC got 24. Tenn 27. LSU 35. Last 4 games Fla got the offenses of GA, SC FAU Vandy this is a bit of a step up in class.4. Stats Cruncher Averages Guy will also be missing the fact that Florida St is a much more dangerous team with Maguire under center at least teams need to respect the medium to deep pass now.5. If it comes down to FG - ummm - we will take Aguayo. Not as deadly as last yr but a better option that Florida has at PK.6. We like Jimbo a lot has been in a bunch of big games - yes he had Winston - but this is McElwain's biggest game yet - only to be surpassed next game vs Bama.7. The Swamp. Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy should note Florida St has won the last 2 here....yes with a slightly better QB. Also - while they were day games - Florida at home this year was life and death to beat Vandy and FAU and probably should have lost to the Vols. We are just saying for real like for real - Florida St will be able to handle it IMO.GL meganext pickFLORIDA ST -2.5(write-up next)
I also jumped this line early in the week, so I am glad to see you are on it, Mega. Roll roll seminole wind.
thx
Posted:
#289
Louisville 4.5 Kentucky (53.5)
Megalocks line 3
Sagarin 7.5
Sagarin and I disagree on more than a few every week - sometimes he gets the better of me - I am just not sure about this one - Now on PRINCIPLE - will not add this to the official play list because like we all have nemesis teams that we have a hard time figuring out - Kentucky and Louisville are both on that list for us especially this year.
Louisville looked a lot better early in the year losing to Aub by 7....Clemson by 3 and houston by 3.....but lately their D has not been as sharp and they have had major problems on the OL....They beat BC by 3 WF by 1 and VA by 7.....last 2 games gave up 76 points....They already have a bowl invite sewn up.
Kentucky will be going for RS FR Barker at QB again - he was 16-29 vs Charlotte but did not need to do much as they ran for over 400Y
in that game....They are 5-6 and Need To Get Bowl Eligible Guy should be looking at the Wildcats this week and they get some SEC relief.....were struggling to score before Charlotte - now they face a struggling Louisville D BUT have a new QB ?? Puzzler.
in that game....They are 5-6 and Need To Get Bowl Eligible Guy should be looking at the Wildcats this week and they get some SEC relief.....were struggling to score before Charlotte - now they face a struggling Louisville D BUT have a new QB ?? Puzzler.Our ACC INSIDERS reminded us that Louisville is DEAD LAST in sacks allowed in the NCAA #128 behind such great teams like Charlotte UTSA and WF.....Sure Kentucky D is not Bama but that OL plus the fact that Louisville will probably use 6 QBs to make sure nobody gets in a rhythm - makes us think Kentucky if anything is the way to go. Odds on Pinnacle are -125 that Petrino bangs a hot biker skank after the game.
Summary. Lean Kentucky at +4 or better. ML would not be the worst idea ever. Not making our official card tho.
mega
Posted:
#290
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Louisville 4.5 Kentucky (53.5)Megalocks line 3Sagarin 7.5 Sagarin and I disagree on more than a few every week - sometimes he gets the better of me - I am just not sure about this one - Now on PRINCIPLE - will not add this to the official play list because like we all have nemesis teams that we have a hard time figuring out - Kentucky and Louisville are both on that list for us especially this year.Louisville looked a lot better early in the year losing to Aub by 7....Clemson by 3 and houston by 3.....but lately their D has not been as sharp and they have had major problems on the OL....They beat BC by 3 WF by 1 and VA by 7.....last 2 games gave up 76 points....They already have a bowl invite sewn up.Kentucky will be going for RS FR Barker at QB again - he was 16-29 vs Charlotte but did not need to do much as they ran for over 400Y in that game....They are 5-6 and Need To Get Bowl Eligible Guy should be looking at the Wildcats this week and they get some SEC relief.....were struggling to score before Charlotte - now they face a struggling Louisville D BUT have a new QB ?? Puzzler.Our ACC INSIDERS reminded us that Louisville is DEAD LAST in sacks allowed in the NCAA #128 behind such great teams like Charlotte UTSA and WF.....Sure Kentucky D is not Bama but that OL plus the fact that Louisville will probably use 6 QBs to make sure nobody gets in a rhythm - makes us think Kentucky if anything is the way to go. Odds on Pinnacle are -125 that Petrino bangs a hot biker skank after the game.Summary. Lean Kentucky at +4 or better. ML would not be the worst idea ever. Not making our official card tho.mega
Louisville 4.5 Kentucky (53.5)Megalocks line 3Sagarin 7.5 Sagarin and I disagree on more than a few every week - sometimes he gets the better of me - I am just not sure about this one - Now on PRINCIPLE - will not add this to the official play list because like we all have nemesis teams that we have a hard time figuring out - Kentucky and Louisville are both on that list for us especially this year.Louisville looked a lot better early in the year losing to Aub by 7....Clemson by 3 and houston by 3.....but lately their D has not been as sharp and they have had major problems on the OL....They beat BC by 3 WF by 1 and VA by 7.....last 2 games gave up 76 points....They already have a bowl invite sewn up.Kentucky will be going for RS FR Barker at QB again - he was 16-29 vs Charlotte but did not need to do much as they ran for over 400Y in that game....They are 5-6 and Need To Get Bowl Eligible Guy should be looking at the Wildcats this week and they get some SEC relief.....were struggling to score before Charlotte - now they face a struggling Louisville D BUT have a new QB ?? Puzzler.Our ACC INSIDERS reminded us that Louisville is DEAD LAST in sacks allowed in the NCAA #128 behind such great teams like Charlotte UTSA and WF.....Sure Kentucky D is not Bama but that OL plus the fact that Louisville will probably use 6 QBs to make sure nobody gets in a rhythm - makes us think Kentucky if anything is the way to go. Odds on Pinnacle are -125 that Petrino bangs a hot biker skank after the game.Summary. Lean Kentucky at +4 or better. ML would not be the worst idea ever. Not making our official card tho.mega
Line jumped to -260
Posted:
#291
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Odds on Pinnacle are -125 that Petrino bangs a hot biker skank after the game.
Odds on Pinnacle are -125 that Petrino bangs a hot biker skank after the game.
Mega- I missed the -125 odds on Petrino and my book is already up to -450.... Should I wait and see if it drops or go after the over/under of the number of escorts at the next L'Ville basketball recruit party which I currently is 9 at -130?
Posted:
#292
CsCollege 
Gatorhater - hammer the -450....I am seeing -500 and -600 starting to pop up - Gonna be a biker-tranny-petrino threesome 
LSU 5.5 Texas AM
Megalocks line 6
Sagarin 5
Tough game to call....LSU has lost the last three games 99-47 combined vs Alabama Ark and Ole Miss...they just HAVE to be beat up after that trilogy and WR Dural gone for the year....Not to mention HC on the hot seat.....line looks about right....but hard to go with LSU here.....AM ?? They are FOR SURE the fresher team and while QB Allen seems to playing on cheap drugs half the time - and playing fantastic the other half - hard to look past the matchup between the LSU run game (#9) and the AM run D (#105).....normally we would be all over this matchup in favor of LSU but due to the spot as mentioned above and no line value - gonna take a pass.
Summary. No leanage. (NOTE - if we find out this is Miles last game - we will be looking to add LSU to the card - say what you want - but the players love him and that would be a big motivational edge IMO - not saying just saying - just keep your eyes and ears open)
mega
Posted:
#293
Ole Miss 1 Miss St (64)
Megalocks line pk
Sagarin 1
Looks to be a tossup to us - HOT TAKE - Ole Miss offense is red hot right now scoring 90 L2G vs LSU and Arkansas.....and yes they will have to do it with the offense and not ESPN's "Landshark Defense".....Worried about Ole Miss pass rush (none) vs QB Dak for Miss St....feels like this game comes down to the last possession - and in a game like this - we always want at least 3 points no matter which team we take - typically 3.5.....Our SEC INSIDERS tell us that the home team has won 14 of the last 16 games in this series....and we really like how scrappy Miss St has been this yr. Puzzler.
Summary. No leanage. For those that need action or will keel over and die - the over is probably the safest bet but we will just watch and enjoy.
mega
Posted:
#298
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Rumor has Jimbo Fisher taking LSU job ... have to wonder how this will effect Florida St. players.
1. Florida St will be able to do much more on offense in this game and at the end of the day - barring a bunch of turnovers - actually moving the ball and scoring points wins more games than not. And Florida St has only turned it over 10 times all year so do not think that will be a huge problem. Obviously Cook is fantastic - almost 1500Y 16 TD 8 yds a pop....Nice receiving targets and Whitfield is developing nicely. Of course Florida's D is fantastic - no argument there - but there are banged up quite a bit on the DL and even with their depth - AND the injuries on the Fla St OL - in a game we expect to be low scoring - Florida St is the team more likely to make the big play IMO whether it is running or MATRICULATING in the passing game.
2. Florida offense is a mess. Stats Cruncher Averages Guy will not realize how much more dangerous Florida was with Grier under center. As we all know Florida has barely escaped Vandy and Florida Atlantic WTFFFFF - and in particular last game vs FAU they had to go to OT and gave up 5 sacks.....In fact - Florida is now dead LAST in the SEC in sacks allowed and 11th in TFL allowed. Florida St D is not what it has been but they must be licking their chops waiting to go against that Florida OL.
3. Good offenses can score on Florida. EC got 24. Tenn 27. LSU 35. Last 4 games Fla got the offenses of GA, SC FAU Vandy this is a bit of a step up in class.
4. Stats Cruncher Averages Guy will also be missing the fact that Florida St is a much more dangerous team with Maguire under center at least teams need to respect the medium to deep pass now.
5. If it comes down to FG - ummm - we will take Aguayo. Not as deadly as last yr but a better option that Florida has at PK.
6. We like Jimbo a lot has been in a bunch of big games - yes he had Winston - but this is McElwain's biggest game yet - only to be surpassed next game vs Bama.
7. The Swamp. Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy should note Florida St has won the last 2 here....yes with a slightly better QB. Also - while they were day games - Florida at home this year was life and death to beat Vandy and FAU and probably should have lost to the Vols. We are just saying for real like for real - Florida St will be able to handle it IMO.
GL mega
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