NCAA week 10

Temple 12.5 SMU (54.5)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 20

This is the classic game we want no part of - Temple off the big ND game AND they have a 2 game lead in their division with Houston Navy and Memphis all on the other side.....They figure to be home and cooled out no sure what the apathy/letdown scale is on this one but it is high.....Also keep this in mind - they put up 458Y against Umass - their next higher Y total was 361 vs UCF....SMU has a nice QB and when we contacted our AAC INSIDERS who are really INSIDE....they noted that the Y differentials in SMU games have been pretty good lately.....Last 3 games - were outgained 457-399 at Houston not bad at all - next week they OUTGAINED a nice USF team but somehow lost 38-14 - last wk they were only outgained 419-406 by Tulsa....Now all of this means a hill of beans probably BUT - we REALLY like SMU for next yr and it may not show up this yr - but we already see some strides and like what HC Morris is doing here already even with so little talent on D......This is not a "fade" of Temple per say - but the guys are human and this just might be a little more of a battle than you expect especially early.

Summary - will not make final card but do lean SMU at 13+ if it gets there maybe even 14 ?

mega

mbiddy  

partles

Adogg - you got it ! added you as a friend let me know what you want to know

urban too funny I am gonna hate that guy now too will probably watch him extra closely

vankiep

doc

sharpshooter - nice work on the temple game ....I cannot disagree on anything you say buddy....If I am dying for a small degen play and IF it hits 14 I might look at smu but you make good points - GL

dntn  thanks man - just remember - anything can happen any given week so play safe

SCC -  sorry about nfl bro - I tell ya - if I bet on those games I would have thrown my dining room set through the window after week 1....so crazy and i feel for ya - just so tough to beat those games; i prefer in game for nfl and nba once football is done......NIU is a tough lean for me because i know the teams are closer than you think in talent but somehow something also tells me Toledo may really get em good??? just gonna watch as a fan tonight - GL....and you still have your avatar !  

I know you said you liked nill at 8 or better, week my guy has 8 today, still a go?

I was leaning NIU prior to reading your analysis. Your analysis just some what helped me convince myself to play the bet. It's all about money management anyways.

Really like Blue this weekend at -22 ... Hope to see your write-up .. 

guys - ya i think NIU is the right side at +8  ....Just my 2 cents boys - I'm not man enough to play it - but go get that paper

upside - hope to get to that one tomorrow

*Request Line*

Mega

ok buddy  will not get to it until Thursday probably

 

BYU 12.5 San Jose St (56.5)

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 14.5

BYU has a pretty good looking resume only losing to Michigan when they were white hot and lost by 1 pt at ucla - Have beat Boise Neb EC and Cincy.....SJ St only has the following wins over FBS teams - unlv (ot) fresno and new mexico....What we really have is an average MW team going way up in class.....Now SJ St does have the #3 rusher in the entire NCAA and will have to ride him LONG TIME and mix up some short passes to keep BYU offense off the field...SJ St turns it over but does a lot of little things right to make it annoying if you are laying a bunch of points and trying to beat them....#18 time of poss....#1 net punting....#2 in fewest penalty yards.....BYU is gonna have to fight to cover and think their biggest asset will be the passing game - SJ St is ranked #1 in pass Y but we look at Pass Eff D - still #12 but the set of QBs they have faced is a horror show of brutality .....new ham....af....oreg st....fresno...aub...unlv....sd st....new mex....on avg SJ St has only FACED 21 ATTEMPTS per game and this BYU team brings a very nice passing game to the table.

Leaned BYU originally but in addition to the above - not sure how motivated they will be and they are probably missing 3 starting OL - although 2 are doubtful 1 is questionable...RB Hine will probably go but they will be fine regardless in the run game - which is where they should make SJ St pay....#115 run D - but have played Auburn New Mex AF. Jeez this game is tougher than i thought.

Megalocks MWC INSIDERS tell us that not only does this game start super late BUT you do not want to miss the GOLD OUT that the fans have planned. If you are going to the game make sure to bring your gold sweater.

Summary. So tempted but we can see both sides as you cvan tell from the write-up at 12.5.  Going to sniff around the total and see what we find there.

mega

Johnny  GL pal. Ya that stat of NO sacks is pretty remarkable.

THREAD SUMMARY

picks

NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)

Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)

 

ORDER of appearance for write-ups

NC State / BC (post 38)

Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)

Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)

Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)

Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)

Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)

Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)

Friday - UTEP/Rice (post 125) Temple/SMU (post 126)

Friday - BYU / SJ St (post 134)

 

NEXT UP - Big 10 / SEC

3 starting OL men could be a nice angle for the SJST @ home + PTS as well as  mojo for cougs

 i think so buddy. Need to do some more reading - My usual sources that i go to do not have much on the game yet the fans are REALLY bored with this one not sure about the players....My guess is they probably got some rotation going in the Wagner game and then had a bye....Game action different obviously - but i would be more concerned if i was a BYU fan if SJ had a good DL which i do not think is the case. TOUGH game !

Been burned 3 x times now on NC ST under my own accord. Actually took Clem saturday because I know and have said before how overrated I think Brissett is and how weak the OL is vs a decent pass rush and quicker LBs shooting the gaps.

 It certainly has its risks playing NC St. That is why i put those parameters on it for you guys. The reason why it is so low IMO is that the BC run D for real is outstanding. And the NC St D is the weakest they have faced in a while. Sooooooo....as bad as the BC offense is - if NC St is -2 or worse in turnovers they probably lose. GL

MEGA- 

Just looking at the Clemson/Fla. St. Spread. Here is a Crack pipe theory. Did Jimbo Fisher play the backup qb because he new he could win? Did he do it to make Clemson take time this week prepare for 2 QB's? I still don't know why Golson was benched, he has been playing well. Any thoughts?

over in the clemson/fla st game should hit.  clemson is scoring at a ridiculous rate.  florida st can score as well.

18 fukking leans I have right now.....     

Mega Bucks!!!  Long time reader first time caller, I see that Alabama has now dropped to ALA -6, when do we start pounding Alabama?  JimmyDaFreak is on the Under and historically the epic battles between these two teams comes down to the home team pulling off the win by a FG.  Wanted to see at what point do you feel comfortable playing BAMA?  The way I see it they are hungrier for they have much more to lose since a 2nd loss may take them out of the playoffs.  Plus I can still see Alabama and LSU making the playoffs with one loss a piece and wouldn't it be a dream scenerio for both these teams to make the playoffs and face each other for the national championship. 

Anyways I enjoy reading the thread and thank for all the winners!  My bankroll and wagers are a lot smaller than most of the handicappers in this forum but by using this forum, using money management, information in your threads, and some listening to my gut I have been on the right side of a lot games.  I want to thank you and all the handicappers on this forum that invest countless hours researching and digging into these teams and lines to help give us an advantage or at least to make a more educated guess.

Continued success!!!

At what point does Ohio become a play?  Your line has them at 17-18 but the line is now at 21.  Would they be at play at 25? 30?

I know you didn't play NIU but...

Mega can see into the future