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MEMPHIS @ SMU: It is the one and only College Football PLAY OF THE YEAR!

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:

Fitting that you are on Memphis. Because your college football picks have been doing bad lately and Memphis has looked really bad in their last two games.

SMU has talent and a good coach. Program on the rise. No surprise they are starting to play better.

Two teams going in opposite directions. I know you like attention, so you labeled it as your "play of the year", but I hope you don't plan on going too big here! It's really a coin flip game, but the momentum is clearly on SMU's side. 


lol, yes because the team that is looking better usually covers against the team that looks bad right??

please stop gambling
 
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Posted: #102

Scal, big fan-big fan!!.

However, for some reason I see you talking a lot more than usual about already winning a game before it's even played and letting those trolls get under your skin.....I have been on here a long time and have NEVER seen you guarantee a win like you have been doing.

Just doesn't seem like the old scal.....weird!

 
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Posted: #103
Good luck bro
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by Randog123:

Scal, big fan-big fan!!.

However, for some reason I see you talking a lot more than usual about already winning a game before it's even played and letting those trolls get under your skin.....I have been on here a long time and have NEVER seen you guarantee a win like you have been doing.

Just doesn't seem like the old scal.....weird!


Well, we have won. 

If you think I'm posting a play of the year to lose and worse, spread it around the gambling world so Vegas can rape us, you are out of your mind.

This is a winner. Take it or leave it. But at a minimum, don't take SMU.
 
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Posted: #105
Play of the Year...from the man of the year. Memphis it is..


 
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Posted: #106
This is one of the 5 games I had circled this week.  I locked it in at -3 today as well.  Haters can hate all they want, but they are just pissed they blew their bank roll in the first few weeks of the season.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Hicks will not get you there. Too youn. Too inexperienced. A gunner but he'll make mistakes. You even admit as much. If SMU's run game doesn't back up Hicks here to open the passing game, Memphis will win and cover. And that is what I expect to happen. And if SMU want to get in a shootout it will be like Diaz-McGregor and the superior team memphis will win and cover (and push at the absolute worst).

WANTING a bowl is not the same as being a legitimate 


Both teams want to go to a bowl, why not just leave it at that? That's not any kind of capping angle in this game and the semantics of it are getting way overblown in this discussion. And of course Coach Morris isn't going to be centering his media sessions talking about bowl games. He wants his kids to stay focused week to week and play hard every time.

And yes, as stated already, Hicks can be erratic and so can Ferguson. And both can rack up passing yards and play with confidence.

The small edges here are home field and the better pass defense, both things which belong to SMU. SMU's total defense also plays a good notch or two better at home vs. the road. We're taking about a handful or two of defensive plays which can make a difference. Both teams should have success running the ball in their uptempo spread formations.

Again, I don't feel this game merits any kind of big play on either side and the best options are SMU or pass with this line and subsequent movement. GL

 
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Posted: #108
Other people are seeing what I'm seeing folks, just look at the posts coming in.

If you watch these teams you will see there shortcomings and know how to exploit them at the right time by betting against them.

Sleepy butta
 
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Posted: #109
"Both teams want to go to a bowl, why not just leave it at that? That's not any kind of capping angle in this game and the semantics of it are getting way overblown in this discussion. And of course Coach Morris isn't going to be centering his media sessions talking about bowl games. He wants his kids to stay focused week to week and play hard every time."


Why don't you admit that's leads to different types of motivation and leave it at that. That is what you are trying to exploit in this line. Virtually everything else is already in the spread.
 
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Posted: #110
Again, and for the final time, both teams want to go to a bowl and both want to win this game. You can file those two desires under the "what every college team wants to do" category. Thus, there is simply zero capping edge in "bowl hopes" talk. Zero. None.

But for some reason you keep belaboring that point when it comes to Memphis only, whereas I'd much rather talk about how to cap the game itself from a technical standpoint. And I've already laid out all those key points.

If anything, if one wanted to get into any kind of non-technical (or "intangibles" angle) type of discussion, the most meaningful fact would be how poorly Memphis has played coming into this one while SMU has been winning and gaining confidence.

In conclusion, this discussion simply isn't going anywhere any longer. And most importantly, this game does not merit any kind of super duper wager whatsoever.

 
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Posted: #111
Motowner if Scal says that bowl game motivation only applies to Memphis then it only applies to Memphis. His posts are always 1 sided to try to hypnotize his followers and lately lead them to the wolves. SMU doesn't care about a bowl game they won 4 games that's all they wanted from this season. They probably won't even show up tomorrow why bother? 
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:

Again, and for the final time, both teams want to go to a bowl and both want to win this game. You can file those two desires under the "what every college team wants to do" category. Thus, there is simply zero capping edge in "bowl hopes" talk. Zero. None.

But for some reason you keep belaboring that point when it comes to Memphis only, whereas I'd much rather talk about how to cap the game itself from a technical standpoint. And I've already laid out all those key points.

If anything, if one wanted to get into any kind of non-technical (or "intangibles" angle) type of discussion, the most meaningful fact would be how poorly Memphis has played coming into this one while SMU has been winning and gaining confidence.

In conclusion, this discussion simply isn't going anywhere any longer. And most importantly, this game does not merit any kind of super duper wager whatsoever.


The fact that Memphis is playing poorly is our biggest ADVANTAGE not disadvantage.

That is how you and I differ as cappers.

I catch teams on downswings about to upswing while you rely on teams to continue their downswings and continue upswings.

The second way can work: but you'll pay a heavy price in the spread so there is little value.

I pay almost nothing and get a pure or push line like this one. 


Last year I backed SMU in one of its worst seasons ever with one win and they crushed Tulane, a team on a small upswing, just like SMU this year with the same exact line.

And I can go to that thread and find the same exact quote that this does not merit a big wager or play of the year.

Like last year, you'll STILL be contending the same thing after this hits. I'll just take the winnings and keep capping with the same methodology and angles I always do. Same old story.
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by JFelty:

Motowner if Scal says that bowl game motivation only applies to Memphis then it only applies to Memphis. His posts are always 1 sided to try to hypnotize his followers and lately lead them to the wolves. SMU doesn't care about a bowl game they won 4 games that's all they wanted from this season. They probably won't even show up tomorrow why bother? 

The fact that you and Motowner keep taking this remedial stance that EVERYONE must be playing for a bowl with the same motivation will bear itself out tomorrow.

The fact is SMU has exceeded expectations for their season already and knocked off Houston. They can hold their heads up mighty high if they lose here. In Memphis heads will be near rolling if they lose.

And Felty you really are one of the most irrelevant cappers here so speaking of 'why bother', why are you even bothering to bother with this issue?
 
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Posted: #114
Unfortunately you don't even realize that SMU is not even on a true upswing. They were gifted last weeks win by Fritz. Smoke and mirrors. And that smoke will dissipate tomorrow and reveal their true form with a Memphis cover. 

Had you watched Tulane SMU you'd know this. But you did not do that. That I know. Or else your commentary would be far more tempered in terms of your siding with SMU.
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


The fact that Memphis is playing poorly is our biggest ADVANTAGE not disadvantage.

That is how you and I differ as cappers.

I catch teams on downswings about to upswing while you rely on teams to continue their downswings and continue upswings.

The second way can work: but you'll pay a heavy price in the spread so there is little value.

I pay almost nothing and get a pure or push line like this one. 


Last year I backed SMU in one of its worst seasons ever with one win and they crushed Tulane, a team on a small upswing, just like SMU this year with the same exact line.

And I can go to that thread and find the same exact quote that this does not merit a big wager or play of the year.

Like last year, you'll STILL be contending the same thing after this hits. I'll just take the winnings and keep capping with the same methodology and angles I always do. Same old story.


Wait, what? That's one of the most bizarre things I've ever read on this forum. I'll wait for you to bump some thread from a year ago where I posted anything to contend that SMU game. Bump it and quote where I did that. I'm waiting.

Don't go down this silly road. I read people's posts and respond based on their content only, not on screen names. I have no ill will towards you or anyone else involved in any meaningful discussion.

However, I've laid out the technical and intangible aspects of this game (including opening line and movement) and they favor SMU. That tells me there's no logical reason why Memphis (of all sides) should be any type of "Game of the Year" wager this week. I advise SMU or pass as stated originally. No hard feelings. GL

 
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Posted: #116
AFTER ALL THIS I HOPE YOU WIN.. AT LEAST FOR YOUR SANITY ... THIS IS BORDERLINE CRAZY... REMEMBER THE SAME TYPE WRITEUPS AND ARGUMENTS FEW WEEKS AGO ON THE OTHER WILL NOT LOSE GAME. ALL THIS INFO BRO.. BE A COACH LMAO... BEST OF LUCK .. MY PLAY IS A 3 TEAM BIG TEASE NEBRASKA +27.5 Alabama +3.5 and San Jose St + 41.5. 6k to win 5k. NO PLAYIN WIT IT OVER HERE...
 
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Posted: #117
Very tough reading through all this stuff. 4 to 5 pages on one game all kind of BS.
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by Warlord:

Very tough reading through all this stuff. 4 to 5 pages on one game all kind of BS.

AGREED
 
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Posted: #119

Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



Wait, what? That's one of the most bizarre things I've ever read on this forum. I'll wait for you to bump some thread from a year ago where I posted anything to contend that SMU game. Bump it and quote where I did that. I'm waiting.

Don't go down this silly road. I read people's posts and respond based on their content only, not on screen names. I have no ill will towards you or anyone else involved in any meaningful discussion.

However, I've laid out the technical and intangible aspects of this game (including opening line and movement) and they favor SMU. That tells me there's no logical reason why Memphis (of all sides) should be any type of "Game of the Year" wager this week. I advise SMU or pass as stated originally. No hard feelings. GL


I said I can find the SAME EXACT QUOTE, not from you, from someone else in the CFB POY thread last year, that is, the same rebuke, that the play didn't warrant a POY, and it was said in virtually the exact same manner you just did.

And at the end of the day tomorrow my girl is going to be rolling in the winnings from this bet like Demi Moore in bed full of money from Indecent Proposal.

Speaking of Indecent Proposal, most of your proposal about this not being a POY and that SMU has an advantage here has been quite indecent.

 
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Posted: #120

Quote Originally Posted by Warlord:

Very tough reading through all this stuff. 4 to 5 pages on one game all kind of BS.


Ok, next time I'll give you white glove service and a martini with an olive on a toothpick while you navigate, just to calm your nerves.

Come on man. This is gambling. Nothing is pretty here.

 
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Posted: #121

Well folks, we're not done with this Motower character, not by a longshot.

He's come in this thread like James Comey throwing shade at Hillary Clinton. The allegation of impropriety without specifics is much more effective than actual impropriety. And what are his actual claims that this pick is not worth a POY. 

Let's look at the specifics. He claims the following:

The small edges here are home field and the better pass defense, both things which belong to SMU.

Let's examine this. Is anyone here amazed that SMU playing at home is an advantage? This is the most basic observation possible and it's already in the line. It's been in every line ever set.  And it actually works out for us. I'm FAR more likely to take this game at -3 in SMU instead of -9 @ Memphis  because the motivation for Memphis to end their season spiraling out of control is just as important home or away.

Now for SMU having a better pass defense.

Let me say simply this, SMU DOES NOT have a better pass defense:

Total Passing Yards allowed:

Memphis Ranked 1,800 yards #66

SMU Ranked 1,983 #88

Opponents Passing TD's:

Memphis - Gave up 9 TD's

SMU - Gave up 13 TD's

Total passing efficiency defense:

Memphis 112.4

SMU 116.2 (which is worse in ranking)

Memphis wins out in virtually every passing defense ranking.

Total passing first downs given up:

Memphis 85

SMU 90

YPG given up through the air:

Memphis 227.1

SMU 247.9

Maybe he means INT's so let's look at that:

Memphis 11

SMU 14

There's one problem here. NET TURNOVERS is a more reliable stat than just INT's. If you are turning the ball over more than you are taking it away, it's a problem.

Net Turnovers

Memphis +4

SMU +3

Well folks, this myth that SMU has a better pass defense is hereby proven FALSE.

Anyone else? I'll take all comers on this one.


 
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Posted: #122
With ya on this play.  Lots of entertainment in this thread, we will cash our tickets tomorrow and thats all that matters
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by bigdude:

AFTER ALL THIS I HOPE YOU WIN.. AT LEAST FOR YOUR SANITY ... THIS IS BORDERLINE CRAZY... REMEMBER THE SAME TYPE WRITEUPS AND ARGUMENTS FEW WEEKS AGO ON THE OTHER WILL NOT LOSE GAME. ALL THIS INFO BRO.. BE A COACH LMAO... BEST OF LUCK .. MY PLAY IS A 3 TEAM BIG TEASE NEBRASKA +27.5 Alabama +3.5 and San Jose St + 41.5. 6k to win 5k. NO PLAYIN WIT IT OVER HERE...



Horrible spot for Nebraka here. Ohio State wins by 31+ one of my fav plays of the weekend
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

2016 Record: 25-11 (~70%)

The Pick:

MEMPHIS -3 over SMU

I apologize but I just lost a 2 page write-up. I will drop in here and there before the game starts to make sure you have everything you need factually to pull the trigger on this one, beyond just trusting the capper. 


I just want to note I have two areas of expertise in CFB: Purdue, and the ACC. Rutgers being so terrible this year has taken a big back seat.

The ACC? Yes, we won wit Temple +3.5 over UCF this year as well as UCF -2.5 over UCONN. 2-0 ATS.

Purdue? Even with last week's loss we are 3-1 ATS.

That's 5-1 overall in the areas I specialize in.

This is a great line opening at -4 and dropping to a line of -3 which carries far less liability.

Last year CFB play of the year? SMU -3 over Tulane.

SMU 49 Tulane 21 Final

This game is in the very same mold as that one in terms of line and structure and I feel great about it. I will say it will not be as easy at last year's game but we are in a great spot here.


I'll be back. No I am NOT releasing a POY just because I lost 2 games last week. Those were POOR picks: A team that can fold any second to any line and team giving up HUGE points on the road. This pick is 180 degrees different and that is to our benefit.

Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.

We will win this one. I don't post a POY's for shi*s and giggles (and we just won one in the NBA forum with the Thunder -5 over Philly, however fortunate).

You strongest football play of 2016? Are you sure about this?
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by JerseySam:

 "The Game of the year "  

 It figures , didn't i tell you your ego would do you in 
after making two horrible bets last week i knew you'd be back quck with more nonsense 

Obviously Memphis is a seriously flawed team,  you have no idea what your going to get from them tommorow 

 Good Luck on your  Wing and a prayer , your going to need it 

"Seriously flawed teams" are what have made me more money in one year could could make in a lifetime at capping.

How many times am I going to repeat this???? I FOLLOW bad teams for a reason (and Memphis isn't even bad!). 

You can find just as much ADVANTAGE in Memphis SMU as you can find in a Bama LSU. In fact there is even MORE ADVANTAGE to be found in a Memphis SMU because it has a low handle, the books give it a hand wave, and hence, the line simply isn't sharp.
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