MEMPHIS @ SMU: It is the one and only College Football PLAY OF THE YEAR!

2016 Record: 25-11 (~70%)

The Pick:

MEMPHIS -3 over SMU

I apologize but I just lost a 2 page write-up. I will drop in here and there before the game starts to make sure you have everything you need factually to pull the trigger on this one, beyond just trusting the capper. 

I just want to note I have two areas of expertise in CFB: Purdue, and the ACC. Rutgers being so terrible this year has taken a big back seat.

The ACC? Yes, we won wit Temple +3.5 over UCF this year as well as UCF -2.5 over UCONN. 2-0 ATS.

Purdue? Even with last week's loss we are 3-1 ATS.

That's 5-1 overall in the areas I specialize in.

This is a great line opening at -4 and dropping to a line of -3 which carries far less liability.

Last year CFB play of the year? SMU -3 over Tulane.

SMU 49 Tulane 21 Final

This game is in the very same mold as that one in terms of line and structure and I feel great about it. I will say it will not be as easy at last year's game but we are in a great spot here.

I'll be back. No I am NOT releasing a POY just because I lost 2 games last week. Those were POOR picks: A team that can fold any second to any line and team giving up HUGE points on the road. This pick is 180 degrees different and that is to our benefit.

Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.

We will win this one. I don't post a POY's for shi*s and giggles (and we just won one in the NBA forum with the Thunder -5 over Philly, however fortunate).

you'll have at least 4 members (that joined in Oct 2016) waiting in line for you to lose, your man crush in the penalty box will be waiting as well

BOL !!! 

We will win this one Wahoo. It is a great spot in a must-win for Memphis (and why that is I'll get to later) against an overachieving SMU team.

FD

I have a big one circled for next week, it's about as sure as taxes 

Fitting that you are on Memphis. Because your college football picks have been doing bad lately and Memphis has looked really bad in their last two games.

not really but you get the point, nothing is as sure as taxes 

wow, that is quite strong jdr

who am i to deny the POY :) will ride this with ya.

waiting for jfelty to start chirpin on saturday around noon

The only positive think I take from this post is the fact that we only have to read one of them on average once per month.


Please assure us that you are not the true dousche bad you make yourself out to be and say something with some substance

Way better games to bet on and like one poster said...2 teams going in opposite directions...

Interesting pick, and I actually wanted to say thank you, because I took SMU -3 LY because of your write up.  I am curious as to why this falls under GOY status?  Last year Tulane was so bad, that it made it very easy to back SMU.... I might play this game, but so far ive taken Memphis 3 times, and they were 1-2 ATS, but even the game they won was some of the worst football i had ever seen,  Conversely SMU has actually been solid all year, but seems to be playing their best football of the year... They have Back to Back SU wins as an underdog.  Obviously they smoked Houston, and beat Tulane this past week... I could see how the recency bias may have made this line smaller than it should be.  

i thought about the over but ended up not betting it. i wouldn't touch the spread,  gl though. 

Memphis beat SMU 63-0  last year , just saying    

Let's go scal put the bet in win or lose my favorite capper with analysis on picks.

This game is SMU or pass. Memphis is poorly coached now, are uninspired on defense, and rather careless on offense. Memphis' win against Temple was aided by refs - Temple dominated that game at Memphis and should've won by 14+.

SMU started cold, but has gelled as a team after some key injuries. Their defense has been playing much better on the whole and they're running the football pretty well now. QB play is bit erratic, but they're always good for hitting a few big passing plays.

Not sure if I'll be touching this game, but I've had SMU the last 3 weeks as dogs and they've been easy money. This game is critical for SMU's bowl hopes. They would only need to win 1 more game after this one to get a bid. And they still have to play at ECU, home to USF, and Navy, so this one's crucial.

I'm tailing you on this one! GL to us!

Line opened Memphis -6 1/2 (BetOnlone), then opened -3 1/2 a few hours later at most sportsbooks, kind of scary

BOL with the play

"Put your money where your mouth is terd"

terd=turd