LuDawg's ECU @ UCF Saturday

So if I click on the matchups and look at the ranks, I see that UCF should absolutely dominate ECU in every phase of the game.  And I only have to lay ONE measly TD!  AT HOME! 

Makes me think the oddsmakers know something more than what is on that chart...like the fact that UCF has played the 119th hardest schedule, and ECU has played the 56th. (per sagarin ratings) That is a huge difference.  Imagine what ECU's raw numbers would be if they had only played high school teams as well.

Might UCF actually have a really really good defense - maybe.  But we can't say that for sure.  In a game for the conference title (most likely) there will be no lack of motivation for either team. 

For me, I like the battle tested squad, getting more than a TD, against a rather one dimensional UCF team.

GL with all your wagers - and thanks again to Lu for the excellent writeup!

 Im with you Lu, Lets go ECU......

LuDawg

im liking the ECU ML, looks very tempting...im from orlando and follow ucf and im not sold on me...think ECU wins tyhis pretty east

LuDawg....you and I went head to head on this matchup last year and you LOST and UCF had no problem covering.  Now I know you follow them and side with them but this contest on the road at UCF goes to the home team....I follow and have won alot on UCF ( just don't post it ) just look at their ATS and this years group will will win Conf USA....the difference.  DEFENSE.  UCF has it and ECU doesn't.  don't let the last 2 games fool you.  ECU lost 9 starters on Defense and they never expected to where they are at 5-2.  UCF can play defense and if not for very late scores on the road should have had K State and NCSt.  Not to mention all the new wrinkles with Godfrey running the offense behind that MASSIVE Offensive Line.  UCF will control the ball and the clock and the score and will force ECU to play from behind and limit them into throwing almost every down ( they can't run ) .  Spells interceptions and an a couple of easy UCF scores.  I wish you good luck but for those who follow you blindly they should look into this one.  I bet 2 of those loses in your 38-8 record were to UCF.  I know the one last year was.  Ain't gonna happen.  

   Riding the Pirate train once again, LuDawg.  Think we have another winner.  BOL 

Final score UCF 38    ECU 23   Don't follow this one blindly.

Thank you LuDawg.

Thank you to FIREandICE as well. I def appreciate great insight like that.

this will be tough as it looks like 2 knowledgable guys on opposite sides. what to do .... as a degenerate gambler, I will have to flip a coin and we'll see how that goes.

Lu is on ECU..... again.  Who would of thunk it?

Sagarin has ECU with as higher rated and higher SOS....about 70% of the time higher rated and SOS win on Sagarin

 

52  East Carolina        A  =  73.06    5   2   68.67(  56)    0   0  |    0   0  |   74.69   46 |   70.78   62
  56  Central Florida      A  =  72.48    5   2   61.06( 119)    0   0  |    0   0  |   68.33   74 |   76.84   40

 Noticed that you're from Florida.  That didn't cloud your judgement on this game now, did it?   BOL

like ECU LuDawg, best of luck

LU you the man keep up the great work bud BOL

your thoughts are always appreciated LU

What to Look For.....

The UCF kicking game. Three of ECU’s wins this season have come in games that were decided by six points or less. That brings the UCF kicking game into focus and so far the results have been lacking. Nick Cattoi and Jamie Boyle have combined to go 4-9, with no field goals made longer than 40 yards.

ECU is an interesting team because the stats are not those of a team with a 5-2 record. They are more in line with a team that would be hovering around .500 (-0.6 yards per pass differential, -1 turnover margin, +1.6 points per game differential ). This squad reminds me a lot of the 2005 Knights (+0.2 yards per pass differential, +12 turnover differential, even point per game differential), who had seven games decided by 10 points or fewer out of the eight wins.

UCF defensive substitutions. UCF has an eight man rotation on the defensive line, but subbing in defenders can get tricky against teams like ECU that run a no huddle, especially near the goal lines which are a long way from where the team is on the sideline

Good luck ECU

This should be a good game and very important for both teams chances for the Conf. title.  Really appreciate your insite LuDawg and GL but I just think UCF will force a few breaks and those turnovers will give the home team all it needs to cover.

222Bad  the fact that I live in Fla. doesn't cloud my judgement.  I'm from NY and just see an advantage to the home team in this series...suprised no one has mentioned the Over.  I expect some points in this one.  GL to all 

i cant get off the train while its moving...ECU to the finish...thanks LU

How the fck do you come into someones thread and  bash someone who is 38-8 = 82%.People never cease to amaze me!!!


What's your record Mr. Great capper Jesuss LMAO?



Keep it going LU Dawg great job!!

BOL this week Lu Thanks for the play

I'm with you Lu!!