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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:

Thanks for all the stuff, man.

Agree on Oregon.  I rode them for several games in the second half of the season.  Impressive turnaround.  I figure UO is looking forward to a strong finish, while TCU limps into this thing.

Hadn't really thought about Ole Miss, but it looks like I need to.  I think I'm pretty sure which team is physically tougher. 

Really like USF.  Man, they looked good to finish the season.




yep Love Ole Miss...
  *but a little less with their best player doing a 60's style LSD failed flying attempt thing............only negative is their best players looking at huge deals.....as Thorpe mentioned
  *my hunch is Okie St isn't good enough to really threaten them here.....and off a horrific bowl LY....they will choose the other route........use the bowl to IMPRESS scouts

Ironically...Frogs off same type of season Ole Miss had LY
 *top of the world > injuries > season screwed > regroup / finish strong > season OVER whew..........wait you say we gotta play again WTF...........

I take it you gotcha some of that Kan St vs Kansas gravy.....
  *kinda funny every year I point it out.....but don't bet it myself
    guess I don't like to come in on the tail end of a run....but this      run maybe has no end ....until Snyder retires ...........
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

BA is the James Brown of Covers- by far the hardest work man in handicapping.


The key one for me is when too many guys on a team are thinking NFL - Saban blamed this for Bama losing last year.  I can see Ohio St falling into this trap this year.

A lot of these situations are very difficult to read.  If a coach leaves for another job, do the players quit?  Or do they rally behind the interim coach?




THANKS......but I think your boi Double Up and that machine Megalocks get that title.........

Yep lately the interim HC seems to be a positive thing....what covering 9/12 or so....?
  *which is why many guys that study this stuff (like me) haven't done as well recently.....a team with all coaches (lame ducks) looking for jobs while practicing....can travel across the country with no fans....and play great wtf
  *this year take Arizona....an OBVIOUS fade with a ton of injuries plus RR looking to get the helll out......do they lose / or regroup and KILL a weak New Mexico?.....if Scooby and a few other LB's are back maybe >they stop NMexico running game + that Lobo secondary doesn't match up well vs Zona WR's
  *Ohio St (seems) to be one of the top teams to fade you bet...but any shocker if Urban get's 'em ready somehow and they simply crush the Irish?....not for me.....AND I wouldn't be surprised at all if OSU  no-shows.....and lose either......(I lean Irish for sure)

BOL and Happy Holidays Thorpe...........  
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by yomh1964:



  wowwwwwwwwwww  quelle  classe  !!! tu te souviens  que je parle français  !! ta  grand -maman  a été un bon professeur  !!  joyeuses fêtes  à  toi   et à  tout ceux que tu aimes,tu es de loin le plus professionel  sur cover,tout le monde  te respecte ,bravo et un gros merci pour ces  gentils mots en français,


Vous êtes trop gentil .... anglais me donne toujours des problèmes ..............

Je sais juste assez espagnol, français et thaïlandais pour obtenir giflé ... ou peut-être jeté en prison! ..... Merci et joyeux Noël!....

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Posted: #54
Sorry missed you boys ................

lordzud....thanks man....I'll do that next...best way ?....rather than doing what most do...is to ask where did they want to be when the season began?.....were their goals met?..etc...............

2dawg....being a TERRIBLE typist....40 odd previews a bit daunting ha...hopefully I'll have time to whip up short ones at least.......

jeepnjake....I could be over hyping the Ducks here...given their BAD D and TCU great QB/ HC...but I think the Frogs are a solid fade here....BOL man...........

Bridge1.....yep Ole Miss with edges on all fronts...match-up big...situational huge...technical (SEC vs B12) very nice as well ....thanks and BOL!............

Skipster.....who do YOU like is what I wanna know.......
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:





THANKS......but I think your boi Double Up and that machine Megalocks get that title.........

Yep lately the interim HC seems to be a positive thing....what covering 9/12 or so....?
  *which is why many guys that study this stuff (like me) haven't done as well recently.....a team with all coaches (lame ducks) looking for jobs while practicing....can travel across the country with no fans....and play great wtf
  *this year take Arizona....an OBVIOUS fade with a ton of injuries plus RR looking to get the helll out......do they lose / or regroup and KILL a weak New Mexico?.....if Scooby and a few other LB's are back maybe >they stop NMexico running game + that Lobo secondary doesn't match up well vs Zona WR's
  *Ohio St (seems) to be one of the top teams to fade you bet...but any shocker if Urban get's 'em ready somehow and they simply crush the Irish?....not for me.....AND I wouldn't be surprised at all if OSU  no-shows.....and lose either......(I lean Irish for sure)

BOL and Happy Holidays Thorpe...........  


YEAH RIGHT it's NOT EVEN CLOSE 


Posts 28-41 45-49   alone should have PHIL STEELE BEGGING and sending you envelopes $$$ to join his staff ....''


YOU ARE IN A LEAGUE OF YOUR OWN BROTHER 



Happy Holidays and a HUGE THANKS FOR YOUR WORK 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:





.

Yep lately the interim HC seems to be a positive thing....what covering 9/12 or so....?
  *which is why many guys that study this stuff (like me) haven't done as well recently.....a team with all coaches (lame ducks) looking for jobs while practicing....can travel across the country with no fans....and play great wtf
 


Makes you wonder if less coaching is better.  With all these extra practises, some coaches may try to get too sophisticated.  But without trying the new stuff in game situations, they may fall flat in the bowl.  

 And how much gameplan can some of these players handle?  Especially when its their last game, the coach can't threaten the player with anything, the player is not going to be disciplined, of course every team/coach/situation is different.
 
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Posted: #57
Skipster.....who do YOU like is what I wanna know.......


For one, Malzahn with extra time to prepare over Memphis.
 
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Posted: #58
Great stuff BA.  I was about to make Indiana one of my top plays, and then saw you had a unit on them.  Any insight TIA
 
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Posted: #59
Should have read a unit on Duke
 
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Posted: #60
Great reading as usual and priceless info, BA. BOL on the Bowls and playoff games 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner18:

Great stuff BA.  I was about to make Indiana one of my top plays, and then saw you had a unit on them.  Any insight TIA



BIG PICTURE handicapping man..........................
  *BAD road team laying points to a GREAT road team with the MUCH better coach....
  *historically.....fading the average team that maybe finished strong.....and shading the good team that maybe faded down the stretch .....has been a winner come bowl season

*BUT.....sure Hoosier RB / QB may be the deciding factor here....esp. with (by far) Dukes's  best player S Cash out (ACC Def POY)
  * I DO like that although Duke OC Montgomery is leaving (ECaro).....he's staying to coach bowl


Duke no doubt faded big time down the stretch......WHY?
  *couldn't recover from the fiasco vs Miami....for some reason

Is the REASON they stink?...or was it because.....
  *next game (after Miami) was NORTH CAROLINA....arguably the nation's hottest team....then a really tough Pitt (off 2 losses)...then at Virginia (pretty tough at home > seeking bowl)

IMO...........could be wrong (unlikely but possible......)
  *Hoosiers have met their goal.....just making a bowl (pressure is off)...... DUKE  is 3 years ahead.....their goal here is to finally WIN  a bowl under Cutcliffe...
       LY lost to Arizona St 36-31 (+7)
       2013 lost to Aggies (John Football) 52-48 (+14)
       2012 lost to Cinn 48-34 (+8)

Indiana played a tougher schedule.....
  *but Duke with the much better D
      #40 TD - 5.2/play...372/g  > UI #112 - 6.4/507
      #13 rush D - 3.4/143  >  UI #102 - 4.9/180
  *Hoosiers with the clear offensive edge....but Duke ran for over 300 vs N Caro (533 TO)...ran well vs Hokies.....so they will move it here as well
  *Duke also with one of nation's top ST / use of field position (#4 / #10)......UI not bad tho at #23 / #55

Technical edges not bad as well....
  *as stated before Duke is one of nation's top road teams (13-3 SU / 12-4 ATS)......Hoosiers one of worst (4-11 / 6-19)
  *ACC vs B10 bowls.....dog is 12-1-1 ATS
  *Pinstripe - dog is 4-1 ATS

Not a strong play by any means......but I look for Duke to win this one..............

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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Lionmonster:

Great reading as usual and priceless info, BA. BOL on the Bowls and playoff games 


Good man LM....BOL............
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Skipster.....who do YOU like is what I wanna know.......


For one, Malzahn with extra time to prepare over Memphis.


WHAT?........oh helll no man............

yep I had an early strong lean to Memphis ....but that Malzahn vs INTERIM HC thing..... may be the deciding factor here...you're probably right....I would think this is a close / very high scoring / last one with the ball wins....type game
  *Auburn needs this one more than Memphis so they probably win.....and the winner usually covers....a stay away for me most likely.....maybe in-game or halftime.....
BOL............
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



Makes you wonder if less coaching is better.  With all these extra practises, some coaches may try to get too sophisticated.  But without trying the new stuff in game situations, they may fall flat in the bowl.  

 And how much gameplan can some of these players handle?  Especially when its their last game, the coach can't threaten the player with anything, the player is not going to be disciplined, of course every team/coach/situation is different.


I would think the atmosphere / practices are much more relaxed.....players are maybe having FUN....for the 1st time in their college careers.......and their play reflects this.......?
  *to make this even more confusing.....sometimes coaches use the bowl practices to put in a new offense or defense......to get a head start for the spring....so beware if you see a team bringing in an OC / DC that will be coaching the bowl.....the few this year are 'just observing' .....I believe  .............
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:



YEAH RIGHT it's NOT EVEN CLOSE 


Posts 28-41 45-49   alone should have PHIL STEELE BEGGING and sending you envelopes $$$ to join his staff ....''


YOU ARE IN A LEAGUE OF YOUR OWN BROTHER 



Happy Holidays and a HUGE THANKS FOR YOUR WORK 



much appreciated buddy......Happy Holidays...........
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Posted: #66
Here's a site I don't think I've mentioned.....

From big Ed Feng......a Stanford PHD that tries to break it down by numbers.....he (of course) wants cash for his predictions...but has plenty of free stuff that is useful....

 https://thepowerrank.com/

Power Ratings not bad at all.....
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Posted: #67
correction.......1st time looked better I guess ha
Illinois on road...........(4-11 / 6-19)....6-9 of course
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Posted: #68
Nice work Bookie!!! You the man
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




BIG PICTURE handicapping man..........................
  *BAD road team laying points to a GREAT road team with the MUCH better coach....
  *historically.....fading the average team that maybe finished strong.....and shading the good team that maybe faded down the stretch .....has been a winner come bowl season

*BUT.....sure Hoosier RB / QB may be the deciding factor here....esp. with (by far) Dukes's  best player S Cash out (ACC Def POY)
  * I DO like that although Duke OC Montgomery is leaving (ECaro).....he's staying to coach bowl


Duke no doubt faded big time down the stretch......WHY?
  *couldn't recover from the fiasco vs Miami....for some reason

Is the REASON they stink?...or was it because.....
  *next game (after Miami) was NORTH CAROLINA....arguably the nation's hottest team....then a really tough Pitt (off 2 losses)...then at Virginia (pretty tough at home > seeking bowl)

IMO...........could be wrong (unlikely but possible......)
  *Hoosiers have met their goal.....just making a bowl (pressure is off)...... DUKE  is 3 years ahead.....their goal here is to finally WIN  a bowl under Cutcliffe...
       LY lost to Arizona St 36-31 (+7)
       2013 lost to Aggies (John Football) 52-48 (+14)
       2012 lost to Cinn 48-34 (+8)

Indiana played a tougher schedule.....
  *but Duke with the much better D
      #40 TD - 5.2/play...372/g  > UI #112 - 6.4/507
      #13 rush D - 3.4/143  >  UI #102 - 4.9/180
  *Hoosiers with the clear offensive edge....but Duke ran for over 300 vs N Caro (533 TO)...ran well vs Hokies.....so they will move it here as well
  *Duke also with one of nation's top ST / use of field position (#4 / #10)......UI not bad tho at #23 / #55

Technical edges not bad as well....
  *as stated before Duke is one of nation's top road teams (13-3 SU / 12-4 ATS)......Hoosiers one of worst (4-11 / 6-19)
  *ACC vs B10 bowls.....dog is 12-1-1 ATS
  *Pinstripe - dog is 4-1 ATS

Not a strong play by any means......but I look for Duke to win this one..............


Impressive stuff BA
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



WHAT?........oh helll no man............

yep I had an early strong lean to Memphis ....but that Malzahn vs INTERIM HC thing..... may be the deciding factor here...you're probably right....I would think this is a close / very high scoring / last one with the ball wins....type game
  *Auburn needs this one more than Memphis so they probably win.....and the winner usually covers....a stay away for me most likely.....maybe in-game or halftime.....
BOL............


for the record, I've been wrong on every Auburn game since Pat Sullivan was a frat boy. I'll pay to be wrong here if I am. Coaching advantage huge in my opinion.


 
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Posted: #71
Keeping this post at the top of the thread, thanks for all the work you have laid out.  Question about the coaching change angle at BYU vs Utah, and if that will have a major impact in the game.
 
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Posted: #72
 
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Posted: #73
BA,  Had a big win season so thanks.  You helped.

Gl,   Doc
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner18:

Keeping this post at the top of the thread, thanks for all the work you have laid out.  Question about the coaching change angle at BYU vs Utah, and if that will have a major impact in the game.


NOPE.........
 
BRONCO is not leaving for the NFL / top P5 school....it's VIRGINIA......the fact that he's staying...means (something) sure
  *some guys will say "let's win for Bronco!".....some >" the SOB IS leaving ya' know....who gives a F"
  $    worth a half point > point maybe ?.....always best to TRY and QUANTIFY these 'angles'

FAR and AWAY.....the biggest issue here is UTAH.....looking at (kinda sorta) a possible play-off berth at one point
  *now here they are in the stinkin' Vegas Bowl (the 5th-6th slot for P12 teams) < a crime BTW......
  ***here 2 of last 3 bowls....last year whipped Col St 45-10

SO....how excited can they possibly be?
  *so slam dunk BYU then?

WAIT.....guess who prepares his teams (bowls) better than anybody........Utes HC Whittingham 7-1 SU / 6-2 ATS in bowls....vs BYU 6-3 /7-2
  *Bronco not bad 6-4 SU / 5-4-1 ATS......2-3-1 as dog

BOTH will struggle to move it here...
  *BYU shouldn't be able to run AT ALL....Utes only slightly better with RB Booker out
  *both OL's just OK....both DL's the strength / can bring pressure
  *Utes with nice ST edge

I would think Utah gets out early.....as they are the better team....maybe late they lose interest.....Mangum / Mathews stage a comeback to keep it close....maybe strong lean under / slight lean BYU......nothing for me.....maybe halftime on team that's down
  *if 1H is kinda high scoring......2H should be low scoring....(unless both teams are somehow running the ball well)


NOTE:      DEFENSE (done right)........requires a lot of hard work / intensity......OFFENSE is a lot more fun
  *so in these bowls where motivation is a ???.....often we see the defense not play up to their normal levels....this one (reg season) might be a really ugly 17-13 type game....probably not here.....  
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One of the best on here.  Thanks for posting and good luck bowling, ba.



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