bowl stuff.....

well, i'm not arguing with you. no disrespect intended, obviously.

It just seems to me that when we make a statement like, "if Arkansas shows up then..."

...we should in this day and age (or in this season perhaps?) assume that teams will show up as coaches' jobs are on the line (an addition to all the points that Michfan15 brought up). perhaps this year is an anamoly. the matchups sucked across the board so the favorites covered at a very high rate. The only real play i talked about here was auburn which i considered a slam dunk. I also mentioned indiana as every single player in my pool was on duke which is historically a sign that we (as a group) have missed something. as that game turned it, it was as the line suggested basically a pick-em that came down to special teams play. i suppose one could argue motivation there, but i wouldn't. both teams were trying to win.

for the record, i don't listen to anything on espn. i read, i look at numbers. i make plays. and i steal from you and Mega.

happy new year, man.

toujours  le fun de te lire  ''tueur  de  livre  ''  !!!  ce  que je  retien  est le respect  que  tu obtiens  des gens,de la classe,bonne  année  et de la santée ,le reste  est  du  surplus  !!!

But that doesn't support your contention.  Most teams showed up?  The trick is to find the games where there's a disparity in focus/motivation.  All four Power Five conference championship game losers lost straight up and ATS.  Is that a coincidence?  BA nailed the motivational advantages for Ole Miss and -- most notably -- Baylor.  Come on, man.

And Duke -- another great call by BA. 

Skipster......i KNOW what you're doing.........................
  *we ALL do it.....looking for a short-cut
      "SO....Hogs don't wanna be here...Kan St does > so bet Kan St?"................NO?.......there MUST be a better way wtf ?
  *PLUS....Hogs won so that proves it right?

Way too much info....theories...what to do?
  *very few have the TIME to spend a few hours on each game...so no crime at all....even in this thread ha

Gotta go thru the ENTIRE PROCESS.......to get it right
  *If you do.....you always win............................PERIOD
      speaking long term of course......

IF......you jump off too early.....you simply REDUCE your chances of winning LONG TERM........
  *forums like Covers dumb down the process...any high school kid can show up and pick winners from time to time.....so do it like they do it?......why not they win right?..............

line correct?.....wanna be here?.....goals met?.....HC prep for bowls/ record? .....match-up edge?.....ST / turnovers....how did the season unfold? (won early....faded > came on strong at end......or terrible start.....injuries screwed season...now injured guys back) etc,,,,then all the other stuff.....crowd / travel / team play well on road....as favorite or dog......+++++++

IF.....you think Indiana was simply unlucky.....well you got some work to do....as the stuff you seem to want to ELIMINATE...is EGGZACTLY what got their azz beat.........
   Duke -   the WILL to WIN a bowl (1st under Cutcliffe)....one of the finest football coaches in the nation....superseded any match-up edge the Hoosiers had........ as I explained in great detail before the game

The Fact that the game was close.....now tells us that this wasn't IMPORTANT?......SAY WHAT?
  *NEXT year....unless playing a tough overachiever like Duke....Indiana (should) be ready to win.....as their SIMPLE GOAL....of just making a bowl.....was achieved THIS YEAR............................

wassup mws........

WOW.....huge week for you man....

A Clemson lean only for me so far.....if just for the line value
  *I think they can move the ball....rest D a bit...but I'm not sure...

BOL.............. 

actually, no. what i'm trying to do is to have an adult discussion about what I see as a shift in the paradigm when it comes to bowl betting over the past few years with this year being the most extreme example.

used to be you could, without looking at the games mostly, play the underdogs in the first 10 bowls and play the faves the last 10 bowls and win some money. this year, you could have bet all the favorites especially in the post xmas day bowls and done pretty well.

i see that as a shift in the way to look at the bowl games. it's ok to disagree about it. and, again, I intend no disrespect. I read your stuff every week. have for 3 years. i follow you on many games.

i used to hunt for compelling reasons to play the favorites and, absent one, would always bet the dog. this year, I looked for compelling reasons to bet the dog and, absent one, I bet the faves. I had a very good bowl season. Got fooled on a few. Sure. Gonna happen, but what I'm talking about is simply a matter of approach.

we definitely disagree about duke (whom I also bet upon btw). two missed FGs and PR TD are what separated them. there is most definitely an element of luck in games that have a 3 pt line and are settled by, let me see, 3 pts. I cashed my ticket but certainly thought about buying out of it when I saw ALL 12 PLAYERS in my pool on Duke. That's usually not a good sign as most of the players can't pick their own azz. this time it worked out. I was also on Arkansas which was just about the easiest pick on the board (bama, auburn). they showed up. they were happy enough to be there that they whipped ksu as they should have. but back in the day, teams like arkansas would show up less than half the time. easy money. hasn't worked that way the last few. the good teams are showing up. so a lean towards the favorites seems to be in the cards at least for now. I hope I'm making myself clear.

WELL......you either ACCEPT / REJECT....my ideas

answer :  NO.....NO......NO
WHY ?:   each game / match-up is different
AND:       it has ALWAYS been this way > 'nuther words
                it was the wrong interpretation to begin with
BUT:        more parity these days.....wide open O's
                narrow the gap along with scholarship limits etc....
                    *so teams are more evenly matched yes

eg:  S Miss doesn't run a hurry-up / wide open O....they lose to Huskies by 40
              

Arkansas vs Kan St ....?
*KSU obviously more motivated ....Hogs maybe / maybe not
      SO > simply play Cats?  >>> NO

KEY:  Hogs a team BUILDING for future > still hungry
            * so they (really) need this more than Kan St
              off huge bowl win LY notwithstanding

IF THEY HAD LOST ....last year to Texas....this would have been one of my largest plays

Now....AX yourself can Kan St stop / slow down what Ark does (RUN).....and can their O take advantage of Ark D weakness? (pass D)
  *answer :  NO  > they compete by great ST / field position

KEY:  if Hogs were playing a team that could stop the run.....and/or had a solid / accurate passer...it changes everything
  *maybe Penn St.....USF .....TOLEDO....etc.....

$  I knew that Kan St plays high scoring games often on the road
    (32/52 over)......and felt Hog D would slack up a bit here so I played OVER
    

ok. see you next year.