bowl stuff.....

good man UP thanks!
 *on the surface a big edge to GS...but if MJ can throw the wet ball ....the (likely) edge to BGreen.....as WR's have the advantage vs DB's on the wet field.........I would think an option based (vs power running game) attack might struggle as well but tough to tell
  ** just a QB's hand size wtf.....can be a deciding factor..........

Really like Bowling Green tonight ....

instincts were way off on USF and Temple...
 *USF just pissed me off....with this 'just happy to be there'.... crap
 while WKU was there to WIN the f'in game....played HARDER
  *didn't realize that Temple's OL was THAT bad.........

thanks buddy BOL..................... 

A few ideas....

  instead of whining about ...what's looking like ....a LOSS
  *GET THAT MONEY BACK.........or some of anyway

2 resources that are great for quarter....or half betting

stat previews from SBNation....breaking down off/def efficiency by quarter (here)
  *numbers are his efficiency ratings....in () are national rankings

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/12/9/9878870/2015-college-football-bowl-previews-advanced-stats

eg.   I'm looking at CMichigan vs Minny......liking C Michigan.....their D ain't THAT bad.....has it's moments
  *OL is TERRIBLE tho.....can't RUN at all

Category            C Mich O       Minn D         Minn O        C Mich D

Q1 S&P+ (Rk)    99.3 (81)     98.4 (69)     102.1 (72)    82.2 (122)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)    94.4 (94)     111.1 (39)     115.7 (31)    88.9 (103)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)    115.1 (30)     107.6 (46)     101.2 (75)    128.3 (11)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)    87.7 (111)     110.7 (35)     110.4 (37)    120.2 (15)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


for numbers on O/D scoring by quarters....
  *1H / 2H too

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opp-3rd-quarter-points-per-game


eg.     3rd qtr scoring D

                             pts allowed
1    Pittsburgh             2.0
2    Florida St              2.2
3    Central Mich         2.2
4    Ohio State            2.2
5    Temple                 2.3
6    Wisconsin             2.3
7    Middle Tenn          2.7
8    Florida                   2.8
9    Toledo                   3.1
10    Buffalo                 3.1

Like.....

It was apparent (very) early that Temple OL was gonna struggle with Toledo DL....<   a handful when they come to play
  *but I knew that Temple was tough 3rd qtr.....outscoring opponents 130-20 or so....it set up perfectly for a smaller play / and didn't hurt me if Temple somehow came back.......meaning better than a panic 2H play on Toledo

Did the same thing with USF / WKU.....>> bet USF +3 early
  *getting nervous as WKU / polished QB....looking like they probably win here > tough for USF to cover the 3 points
  *got to work > dug up a solid 1H under.....and possible 2H over as well .....doesn't always work out sure but seems like a fairly high % play if you're patient................ 

Perfectly said!  

agree ?.....

Bowling Green is gonna kick GS's azz.....................

gonna hit that 2H hard I think.........I didn't know Breida was < 100% ............

just a small 'value' play man.....Aggs midway thru season would be favored by 8-9' or so......
  *SO... losing 2 half-azz QB's + NOW backs against the wall....and we get a 14 point swing.........????

maybe I'm just looking to fade Bobby P.........
  *love the sorry basterd ....as a coach....but he has pissed me off TY

I'll probably dig into it further......I would think the Aggie QB is probably as good as the Card QB.....?
  *maybe best to determine if Aggs have locker room issues or not...if kids REALLY like Sumlin...... or not ....................

here's 2H efficiency ratings for BG / GS....
  *note drop off for GS D......2nd qtr best for D....and O

Category                GS O           BG D            BG O          GS D

Q1 S&P+ (Rk)     96.3 (90)       97.5 (71)     127.2 (11)     108.7 (38)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)     119.4 (24)     109.4 (49)     131.0 (7)     118.7 (19)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)     98.9 (81)       107.2 (50)     129.4 (8)     90.0 (103)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)     101.6 (76)     91.5 (105)     114.0 (25)    93.0 (99)

*note GS 2nd qtr O.....#24 in nation

scoring 2H
BG O #3 ....at 20.5 pts
GS O #33...at 16 pts

BG D 13.2 pts allowed
GS D 13.1 pts

good man UW BOL..................

checked in on your boy Big Daddy....looks like the 'pro gambler' / CARTEL player.....  is making all ML plays + .38 cent poker bets........ 

BG -2' 2H looks good..............BOL boys see you manana......

Tailing this pick. GL BA  

Got it with the hook GL 

....looks like BGreen did not share my enthusiasm...



RESET...............................

*goal is to find games in which ONE team is motivated > other is not....
 $  IF..... NEITHER motivated or unsure  > maybe play total only


BAHAMAS BOWL

 MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. (7-5/8-4/5-7) vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5/7-5/6-5-1)
 
 * 12:00p E    Nassau, Bahamas (Grass Field)  low 80's / 5-10 winds / cloudy/ no rain tho

MTS- last bowl 2013...lost to Navy 24-6 < 2011 L to Mia,O 35-21
     HC Stockstill 1-3 SU / ATS...1-2 ATS as dog
  
On road?  - L 45-16 to La Tech...L 58-28 to WKU...L 27-25 to Illinois..L 37-10 Bama

WM - LY lost 38-24 to AF in Potato....2011 L to Purdue....never won a bowl
    PJ 0-1 SU / ATS

 On road -  W at Toledo 35-30...L 43-17 Ga Sou....W 49-14 Ohio...L 38-12 Ohio St
       *played Mich St tough at home...L 37-24

BOTH....explosive O's / WEAK D's....MTS D overrated because they shut down several WEAK O's....
  *note W Mich (stats wise) the top O in the MAC....av 7.2/play...5.4/rush(#1)...10.0 /att (#1)

Halftime / Quarter stuff
  *MTS- O much better 1H...1st best...D same / 3rd best
   WM-  O better 2H...4th best by far...D same / 1st the worst

*WM with a huge ST edge....#14 > #113
*MTS plays faster #19 pace > #58 for WM 

$  I played WM earlier at 2'...at 4ish not bad...OVER..probably still works at 65....but since I watched it climb from 60 so I have to pass...instead looking at a 2H over if 1H low scoring < very possible.....weird environment / no crowd at all
     *bottom line WM should win...so they likely cover as well

Thank you for the excellent analysis. WMU closed it out nicely. Was nervous in Bahamas Bowl after last year's WKY wager. Good work.

HAWAII BOWL

CINCINNATI (7-5) vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (10-3)
8:00p E   Honolulu, Hawaii (Artificial Turf)
  *70's....clear....12-15 winds...

Hawaii Bowl-  Dogs are 9-3 ATS...UNDER 6-1
  *MTW teams have lost 8/row SU (1-7 ATS)
   $$  MISSED the cover by 200 pts or so (those 8 games)

CINN-  Kiel is out
       lost their last 2 bowls
       TT 7-5/6-6 ATS
SDSU- QB Smith will try to play with torn ACL (probably)
      Rocky terrible bowl coach 2-7 / 2-7...2-4 as fav

$  SMART play?.....stay far away
    *gimme small Cinn ML +105....SDSU is on vacation...as MTW teams have been... Cinn / TT needs a win here......

My friend I tailed your western Michigan play this morning and want to say thank you. I also appreciate your wrote up's. Very informative and good info. I really like you Missisipi, orgon, and Oklahoma picks!!!

Let's make a post Christmas Bowl run brother

Merry Christmas boys............
  *back with rest in morning



ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

CONNECTICUT (6-6 SU / 5-7 ATS / 2-10 O/U)
     vs. MARSHALL (9-3 / 7-5 / 4-8)

St. Petersburg, Florida (Grass Field)
  *72 deg / sunny / 10 mph

Fav here 5-2 SU/ATS...under is 4-3...these 2 combined for 18-6 under TY

UConn-1st bowl since 2011 Fiesta (L to OU)....HC Diaco's 1st as HC
  *O - BAD OL > decent runner in Newsome (5-7/180)...can't really move it...or finish.....slow pace (#121)...QB has been hurt 
  *D - average vs run / can't rush passer...prevents big plays > tough in RZ
       
Herd- GREAT bowl team...Doc H 3-0 SU/ATS...Herd has won 9/10 bowls SU
 *O- RB Johnson WILL NOT PLAY...kinda sorta getting ready for Sr Bowl....weak running attack...better passing than UConn...fast pace (#39)
 *D- weak(er) run D...Uconn MIGHT run a bit here?...good pass D (GREAT RZ D) < bad for UConn
     
* Herd with LARGE ST edge (#3 > #69)
* UC slight TO edge (#19 > 39)
*halftime / quarter players
   UC- D solid all 4 / O much better 3rd
   UM- D weak 1st...great 4th /O MUCH better 1H/ terrible 4th

$  PASS....lean UNDER maybe....IF...Herd don't make mistakes...UConn will struggle to stay in this one
   Herd with QB / HC edge...plus they have played well on the ROAD...UConn tough at HOME...not so much on road
    *1H higher scoring > 2H will almost for sure be low scoring  



SUN BOWL

MIAMI- (8-4/7-5/7-5) vs. WASHINGTON STATE (8-4/9-3/5-7)

El Paso, Texas (Artificial Turf)
  *45 / rain / 10-12 mph

8 of last 10 Sun Bowls have gone OVER...
  *Miami coaching situation vs Wazzu's last (only bowl under Leach) bowl embarrassment the story here....so I'll call for Wazzu to be the more 'focused' team
      note: U players like that Larry Scott....so might play hard for awhile...bowls > Leach is 5-5 SU / 3-7 ATS / 2-7 as fav / 1-0 dog

Miami-
  *O - can't run...OL is terrible...big play only
  *D - BAD run D /good pass D...good at stopping BIG plays / weak at stopping efficient ...patient O's....like Wazzu

Wazzu
  *O- can't run (better than before tho) / very efficient...few big plays
        NOTE: top WR Marks is OUT
  *D- ok vs run / ok vs pass...very good at stopping big plays (esp passing)

     NOTE:  match-up favors WAZZU....also very aggressive defensive front that (should) give Cane OL problems > an unexpected edge in the TRENCHES for Wazzu    

TURNOVERS -  BIG edge to Miami (#5 at +11...to #88 -3 for Wazzu)
ST- big edge to Miami here too...#49 > 104
pace- Miami #108 > #35 Wazzu

WARNING:  if you like Wazzu here...prepare to be driven crazy by Leach...several times...best case?... seriously...would be for Wazzu to be BEHIND early...as he doesn't even try and protect a lead....bowls seemingly give him cause to embrace his inner mad scientist ...........

$  with the weather getting worse...from sunny 70ish to rain / windy / even snow later that night (Canes already complaining)
   I'll change my Wazzu strong lean to solid play...if Canes show up (apparent EARLY)...I'll adjust in-game
* so one unit play on Wazzu -2'


plays / leans on remaining games....
  *strong lean Washington
 *solid play Duke +3
 *ditto Tulsa +14
 *ditto Nebraska +7

I like all 3...since plays I liked early have LOST....maybe fade me here....really like Nebraska > then Duke > Tulsa > Wazzu
  *plays I liked just a bit....have won  > so Wazzu should win...rest lose ha..................

updated....

TOP PLAYS

Ole Miss -4
Oregon +1'

ONE UNIT

Temple +1            L
Duke  +3
Baylor  +3
Tulsa  +14
USF  +3               L
Boise -3               W
Wash -2'/LSU -1
Nebraska +7
WVirg  -1
BGreen -5            L
Wazzu -2'

smaller

USC -3
Memphis +3
Hou +7
Clemson +4
NW +7
WM -2'                              W
Penn St +7
New Mexico  +10             W
Texas A&M +5
La Tech -1'                       W
USF / WKU 1H U 34       W
Akron +4' 1H                    W
Ohio St / ND over 55
WV / ASU 1H under 32
Ga Southern BG over 63'  W
Cinn   ML                            L

*Cinn I actually liked a lot....a small play only due to match-up issues....and TURNOVERS..........yep

thanks man appreciate it..............
  *no OU for me tho.....on Clemson small.....

Maybe bigger tho..... as I'm SO SICK AND TIRED OF HEARING HOW AWESOME OU is.........here....friends.....talking head idiots like Herbstreit.........I would so much love for Clemson to beat the crap outta OU..........< and I like OU /never liked Clemson much (lose every time I bet on / against it seems)

all the best JN thanks!..............

SOUTHERN MISS (9-4/10-3/5-8) vs WASHINGTON  (6-6/7-5/4-8)

Dallas, Texas (Grass Field)
  *75 / 60% rain / 15-20 mph


SMiss-  OC has left...last bowl 2011
  *NOTE:  played a weak schedule yes...but keep in mind they DID beat La Tech there 58-24 .... LT /Dixon had minus 2 yds rushing...played Nebraska close away...ditto vs Miss St at home
          SO....they can stay in this one
  *O- most explosive in nation (gains over 20 yds)...run (5.3/rush) and throw well
  *D- matches up well vs Husky O...not bad on standard downs...def front can disrupt /rush passer...weakness is stopping big play...> not a Husky strength

Wash.- LY's bowl embarrassed by Okie St...Peterson 4-3/4-3...1-3 as a favorite in bowls
  *O- needs to move the ball here on 1st/2nd down...weak in pass protection / RZ... If S Miss can force them into 3rd longs consistently...this one maybe tight
  *D- #1 in efficiency....solid in all situations
      battle hardened team?....wow...
          Utah St > Cal > @ USC > Oregon > @ Tree > Zona > Utah > @ Zona St

TOvers - SM #80 at -2...UW #29 at +6
pace-      SM #46...UW #117
SpTeams -   UW #15...SMiss not bad at #41

$  strong lean only for me on Huskies...I might add a play in-game
     total maybe has dropped too low...should drop further with the bad weather....I might add a small play on OVER
        *Huskies are a very young team..might lose focus here in Dallas before very few fans...> meaning S Miss might score more than they should  otherwise  


INDIANA (6-6/7-5/10-2) vs. DUKE (7-5/6-6/5-7)

Bronx, New York (Grass Field)
  *50 deg / 30% late / 8 mph

ACC vs B10.....dog is 12-1-1 ATS...dog in this bowl is 4-1 ATS

Not gonna spend much time here...
  *on the surface...Hoosiers are the better team...and sure might win/cover

BUT...I like Duke
  *because they have the MUCH better coach...the much better D...and are one of nation's top road teams....and always play great ST / leverage the field in their favor (#10)   
  *plus...have lost all 3 bowls under Cutcliffe ....to much better teams (2-1 ATS)...will be fully focused on WINNING here
  *Hoosiers no bowls under Wilson...have achieved their goal of just making a bowl
 
Duke is 13-3 SU / 12-4 ATS on road...Indiana 4-11 SU / 6-9 ATS on road same period

Duke's best player...ACC DPOY S Cash is out...OC Montgomery is leaving but will stay for bowl

Indiana- QB / RB should be healthy here...really bad pass D is banged up (st FS out..SS and CB ??)....gave up more passing yards than any team in nation....also #102 rush D at 4.9/180

$  I think Duke emerges here a much better team...as they did vs A&M and Ariz St....and wins this one outright 

BA,