bowl stuff.....

SURE..............

BUT......just because I explained in DETAIL....why I like them here...doesn't mean I like them MORE....commensurate with the length of my write-up......know what I mean?.........
  *many get confused...he wrote it up >> must LOVE the play
nope....WV could have 5 TO's...lose by 30 so what....Frogs could (somehow) show up and beat-down Oregon (Briles style)...you bet

I rode hard with both Miss. and with Oregon, and even managed to get 7 on a teaser with Old Miss. before the Boykin suspension.   Don't think If Baylor had won that last game with TX that they would have the success running on Mis.  Also rode with W. Virginia, should be a shoot out.  Thanks for all your hard work in the bowl season.  BOL

Ballsy to take the under in the oregon/TCu game but thats a solid #...BOL

not really....

Oregon bowls often low scoring.....5/7 under or so


last few 1H....

OSU  10-21
FSU  18-13
TX    20-7  Alamo Bowl
Kan St 22-10
Wisky  28-28
Aub  11-16
Ohio St  10-16
Okie St 7-17

The extra prep time for opponent.....takes away the main edge that Oregon / other no-huddle type O's have....very tough to show your D the O....at the PACE they will see game day....in 3-4 days
  *so Duck O seems to struggle early....until opposing D wears down late .....here I would expect Patterson to have a few surprises on D > maybe force a few mistakes early....run the ball ..
  *2H should get wild....as both teams settle in.....I expect Frogs to keep up for awhile....their very thin D wearing down late.....

that WV / Zona St game should be one of the best....hopefully
  *maybe Dana pulls another O game plan like vs Clemson....ha
 OR..maybe he brings back Tavon Austin...slips him in somehow...

dumbazz TCU still in hurry-up O.....
  *getting Vernon/Ducks back on the field FASTER

IF....they don't SLOW down.....huddle up.....chew up clock time....they're gonna get murdered................ 

GUTLESS Frog D.... gonna cost me my under......

With Adams going down the under looks golden.

looks like I called the WRONG team gutless......wow......

adding one unit play OVER 33' 2H........5Dimes
  *think this one get's wild / late night / last game etc.......both O's really attacking...WV  D has a few more hurt too.............

Could not believe the Oregon outcome. 7 pt teaser saved me.  A lot of people are agreeing with you on the over as the line moved to 34.5 in a blink.  That is a huge bet, BA, but then again you have had an outstanding bowl year.  BOL BA

didn't bother me.....I didn't play or coach
  *if I did....that crap wouldn't have happened..........

Plus...it was VERY clear I had the right side.....just didn't work out

Thus the huge one unit play on the over. 2-1 one unit, should be  3-0.  Cannot believe one TD will not be scored, neither of these teams are Oregon.

back in a few days.....
  *lean Clemson....might hit it small while 7 or more....like the Super Bowl....I usually focus on in-game ...prop type bets etc.....

  * Overall 37-14 or so.....ties dropped 


TOP PLAYS

Ole Miss -4       W
Oregon +1'        L

ONE UNIT  
 
Duke  +3               W
Tulsa  +14             W
Wazzu -2'              W
Nebraska +7         W
Temple +1              L
USF  +3                  L
Boise -3                 W
BGreen -5               L
Baylor  +3               W
Wash -2'/LSU -1      W
WVirg  -1                 T
ND +2' 2H               W
WV / Ariz St 2H over  W


smaller   
 
WM -2'                             W
New Mexico  +10            W
La Tech -1'                      W
USF / WKU 1H under 34    W
Akron +4' 1H                    W
Ga Southern BG over 63'  W
Cinn   ML                          L
UW / SMiss  OVER 51'     W
Navy -1 1H                      W
CM +10' / over 42            L
NCSt +3 1H                     L
USC -3                             L
Memphis +3                      L
Hou +7                             W
Texas A&M +5                  L
Clemson +4                     W
NW +7                              L
Michigan -3                      W
Penn St +7                       T
Ohio St / ND over 55       W
WV / ASU 1H under 32    L
Oregon / TCU 1H under 38  W
Kan St / Ark over 55'       W


really small  

BG-2' 2H                      L
Neb +3 2H                  W
USF / WKU over 2H   W
Tulsa TT over 2H       W
Akron / USU over 2H W
Pitt 3rd Q                    W
Temple 3rd qtr            W
WM 4th qtr                 W
App St 2H                  W
AF 2H TT over            L
Miss St 4th Q             W
USC / Wisky 1H under W
USC -3 2H                 W
Georgia 3Q                W
PSU 4Q                     W

yep shoulda bet more ha.....< it's always easy AFTER the game...
  *have to admit I was getting nervous when late in 4th scoring came to a screeching halt........'shoulda /  coulda' finished huge...
    *VA / Hackenburg / WV blk XPt > 2 pts ........

see ya in a few...........

Forgot..........

That Oregon fiasco was my fault....
  *maybe gambling gods paying me back for my biggest wager ever (drunk in sports bar too) .....2H Mike Leach / TT vs Minny .....2006 or so....the previous largest comeback

book,

I wonder if it's time to retire the old "motivation" and "do they want to be here" meme?

Used to be the best way to handicap the bowls in the old days. Play the dogs in the early bowls because the faves were probably disappointed to be where they were, etc.

Seems to me (and I watched most of every bowl game) almost all the teams showed up ready to play. Maybe not USC or FSU (and I think the Trojans have made yet another mistake).

I think it explains why so many favorites covered and so many covered so easily. Teams showed up to play this year.

My two cents.

Skipster - Was thinking about it also.  I think the rise and prevalence of social media has played a part as well.  Every mess-up or highlight will be broadcast, quickly around the world.  Even the lower-tier bowls basically get their own slot on prime time, TV.  So another opportunity for a player to further his draft stock, and also not embarrass himself or the university.  Perhaps even more so now than the last few years with Twitter, Instagram, and quick/easy content/video sharing.   Just a thought 

 Happy New Year old friend 

I wonder if it's time to retire the old "motivation" and "do they want to be here" meme?



BOTH OF YOU.....should be deeply ashamed for posing that question in here...................................
  *my guess is...you're watching the game.....looking at the players....looks like they're playing hard to me! ......WRONG
  *IF you mean...is it OVERRATED by many 'experts'.....YES
 
 I would add you're listening to the wrong people
NOTE:  Herbstreit is regarded by many.....as the premier voice
           of CFB ....he struggles in a big way to grasp what he just
             saw...after Bama / Michigan St....."end of Sparty and
             Big 10 !".......kinda sorta.....no dumbazz simply a horrific
             MATCH-UP for Sparty......combined with Coker POOF!
             transforming into Joe Montana.....and (looks like) Cook's
               shoulder not even close to 100%

As I've mentioned ad nauseam here....simply ask... is this where they wanted to be?....(when the season began)
  *this works for MOST bowls....not EVERY time
      ** you recall the times it didn't matter....forget the others
           where it was huge

THEN >  *expect a REDUCED effort....not a total no show
               *gotta look at the OTHER team as well / situation and
                      match-up....that ONE-WAY handicapping....a much
                      preferred (LAZY) Covers staple

This year the early games mostly were evenly matched...
  *'cept for Arizona and Washington....
        ?  Zona got a big boost with the return of Scooby (and a few
               more guys on D)....for his last game
             Washington a team on the rise....off a bowl
              embarrassment in 2014....note S Miss played the helll
              outta them too

How may teams were playing in a bowl....they might have laughed at when season began.....and played well?

  Minny- an extremely well coached team....coaching situation changed things....created a bit of useful chaos maybe

Miss St - playing an overrated ....capable ...but weaker opponent
 MSU a  team that plays well vs weaker opponents...plus in a rebuilding year but  with a great QB....didn't expect much anyway

Tennessee - match-up edge too great for NW to overcome
Arkansas -   ditto.....Kan St was just too weak (can't run or throw
                    can't stop the run or pass yikes)
Stanford-     ditto.....plus Iowa had already overachieved
                      * a classic case here....my lean was Tree here...
   
note:  notice I didn't fade any of these.....I had NW really early
            then admitted I was wrong probably

DON'T FEEL BAD BECAUSE YOU PASSED ON THESE TEAMS
  note:  a halftime or in-game bet IS available ya' know

THE STRATEGY IS SOUND.....40 bowls > 5-6 misses 

Looking at a few more....
  *where MO was a factor
TCU- so you think Frogs were ready?..............    
  *they weren't even in shape....woulda lost 55-10 if VA doesn't get
   KO'ed.....note Ducks were in national title game LY themselves
    key :  when VA went out earlier in year.....Ducks were terrible
    so we get a "here we go again" > we're screwed now thing
      very...very sad.....ha.....but true

       Fun Fact - since 2006 when Minny gave up a huge lead to TT...the next 1463 games....the team down 31 points has not come back to win....until then

Indiana-  how many of you dogs bet on them?....I TOLD you DUKE was gonna be ready to play....and would win despite a match-up disadvantage.....Hoosiers took a quarter to wake up
 *Indiana looked a TD+ 'better'.....but lost

UCLA wtf?

Cal - Goffs last game......Cal is BETTER than their record....due to a terrible schedule
NORTH CAROLINA-...........who was ready to play?
  * I told you WHY Bears would be ready > kick their azz
        YOU....bet on the 'stronger' team and lost.........

LSU- any run D at all.....TT would have stayed close....coaching crap created some useful chaos here.....they love Miles
  *love that TT QB Mahomes.......

Auburn-  Memphis coach leaving put them in disarray....note they were actually expecting a better bowl than Auburn
  *I had Memphis early > admitted I was wrong later
        $$ a slam dunk Auburn play in hindsight

USC?.....Wisky is a weak team too

Ohio St....thought Irish would stay close myself....lost too many to compete here I reckon.....

Georgia?......played better than I thought....still didn't put away a much weaker Penn St.....QB doesn't go out ...it's clear they woulda covered and maybe won....hate him fine....he's still a 2nd-3rd rounder or so
 

For me the biggest thing in bowls.....
  *is .....where is the program headed?.....what happened in LAST YEARS Bowl?......
     *embarrassed....look to play on next year (depending)
     *huge blow out W?.....look to fade (depending)......... 

SMART man you are Wahoo....
  *staying way up high....above the Covers madness....having a few/more drinks....shaking your head probably.............

Hand around for (awhile anyway) this next week whydontcha.....
  *maybe we can get some intelligent football talk going.....

All the best in 2016 buddy....or whatever year it is.....

and another thing................
  *look to use psychological factors MORE and MORE in handicapping games

WHY?....as the distractions increase....it's much tougher for our WEAK / FRAGILE minds to FOCUS

BECAUSE......what we're trying to do...is essentially PREDICT human behavior here anyway..........

KEY?.....very few understand HB.....you think Vegas / oddsmakers have the time (or computer software) to do this effectively?
  *why helll no.....a huge edge for us....in these type games

Motivation is a very important factor, but it isn't the only factor.  The game still comes down to the O Line/ D Line matchup more often than not.   (Look at Arkansas vs K St, something like 55 pounds per man)

match-ups are always the bottom line...
  *BUT....usually are covered in the SPREAD > mistakes are rare
  *Vegas software is very sophisticated (esp after Walters / MIT guys lit their azz up)

Situational factors?.....just a bit sometimes (reflected in spread)
  *this why the NFL pre-season is a terrible time to bet....for most EVERYBODY right?......not for a select few....like myself ......

BTW.....when I say ......you...or worse YOU........
  *always...I'm referring to (most) of the Covers community in general....or general opinion I'm hearing....not any specific person