Posted:
#226
and BA congrats on an excellent bowl season! 
LonghornHoosier
bowl stuff.....
Posted:
#230
Congrats on the OM pick. I liked em but never quite got to where I called for a full play on my thread... with you so strong i pounded when it dropped late again toward 7 and had alot of fun w it. Great bowl run BA!
Like ASU tomorrow, not sure how WV O is going to match w ASU's D they better be much better then expected to best ASU's run D or have a great day from Howard to keep up... it's possible Graham just cannot best Holgersen in the 3-3-5 schematics and maybe that's an edge, but think ASU has the stronger all-around team.
Also, I don't suggest jumping on WV cause of late suspensions only, that all Big-12 corner is a real loss but ASU's LB Moekiaola also out and all their LB's are important. Still I like ASU w the stronger run D that has been brutal against teams that can't get their pass going and give an edge to their O working w a strong run and decent pass complement. 
Posted:
#231
RESET
KEY- knowing when to stress the MATCH-UP...and when to focus on OTHER STUFF
*only when BOTH teams are fully focused...like play-offs....do you look to match-up primarily
AX yourself...............
*where did they want to be when the season began?
eg.....when it's 4:00p / 110 heat index...(Frogs work in the heat) > Is Patterson screaming....."SON... we'll never make it to the F'in Alamo Bowl if you keep half-azzin' it like that !".......nope > it's play-offs....or NOTHING
*this is what drives them thru the tough days in/off season
key... is WHEN did their bubble burst....how did their season play out?....'write a story kinda sorta..
FROGS?....as late as 1st week in November...their sights CLEARLY were on a national title....AND Heisman Trophy....
*now that you've seen OU and Okie St play outside B12....and Baylor QB situation....those dreams were actually realistic
Ducks?....knew they were rebuilding DAY 1
*While Alamo Bowl / San Antonio is a horrible trip for Frogs.....it's the #2 slot for the (abused) PAC12....any false play-off hopes were shot down SEPT 12 at Sparty anyway
*EMBARRASSED here in TEXAS last year (Ducks recruiting Texas hard now)....this one is huge for the programs direction...> long azz trip back to Eugene with friends/family that came to see you play.....now back in Texas again.......
Frogs LY had one of top victories in school history....maybe 2nd behind Rose Bowl ??
*they came back FAT / HAPPY.....zero pressure here....makes them slightly dangerous here as well you bet
THE PROBLEM?.....in handicapping these bowls....is defining what you mean by motivated
*everybody thinks GAME TIME.....WRONG
few dog it on national TV.....(linemen can hide
a bit better than others)....
** PREPARATION is what suffers
?.....How focused do you think Boykin was before they left FW?.....as the team leader / best player...do you feel he INFLUENCED the younger players?.....WHY HELLl YEAH
$$$ how bout my man VERNON THE BALLER?
in his final game on American soil?........
** is he focused here?............holy crap
Side note on VA....really he's had very little practice time to get the Duck O down pat....
*he got in late...so only what 2-3 weeks in fall....then hurt his finger vs Sparty...so that set him back a few weeks.....
$$$ these extra bowl practices should really help....expect him to look even better here....
ARIZ ST?.....when season began Graham said THIS was his BEST TEAM....
*off a magical trip to El Paso last year to face DUKE......NOW they find themselves 6-6 in the CACTUS BOWL....facing a (underachieving yes but capable WV).....EXCITED MUCH?
WV ?....off 2 straight bowl losses (no bowl 4-8/2013)....Dana needs this one bad
*IMO........Looks like it was too much / too soon for WV....3-0 (beat the crap outta Ga Southern and Maryland....then @ OU > Okie St > @ Baylor > @ TCU > TT > Texas...
*won last 4....lost last game to a desperate KST away
My thinking here is that they are underrated...and given time to regroup they have the EDGE here and can / should win...
*don't really LOVE it....as they turn the ball over too much to trust....Devils can win this one as well sure
I'll have a bit more on each game tomorrow....
$ If I forget / or pass out drunk again....hey man another day off wtf..........
Love Penn St....they win / keep it tight
K St / Ark....avoid best maybe....Hogs could/should kill KSU....doesn't feel right to me
*lean OVER....maybe KSU 1H ??
Ducks/ Frogs.....Duck D is weak...Frogs should RUN early....probably get out to an early lead....DON'T PANIC....Vernon will settle down...>> eventually run 'em out of the bldg
*note : best player on the field is Duck DE DeForest Buckner.....2nd best is VA.....a probable Heisman Trophy candidate if healthy all year.......
ASU / WV- I did that 1H under....both D's should give others O problems....so with LONG lay-off 32 seems like a lot for 1H here...both play fast so any under is shaky.....1H under maybe good for Oregon /TCU too.....waiting on total to rise....
KEY- knowing when to stress the MATCH-UP...and when to focus on OTHER STUFF
*only when BOTH teams are fully focused...like play-offs....do you look to match-up primarily
AX yourself...............
*where did they want to be when the season began?
eg.....when it's 4:00p / 110 heat index...(Frogs work in the heat) > Is Patterson screaming....."SON... we'll never make it to the F'in Alamo Bowl if you keep half-azzin' it like that !".......nope > it's play-offs....or NOTHING
*this is what drives them thru the tough days in/off season
key... is WHEN did their bubble burst....how did their season play out?....'write a story kinda sorta..
FROGS?....as late as 1st week in November...their sights CLEARLY were on a national title....AND Heisman Trophy....
*now that you've seen OU and Okie St play outside B12....and Baylor QB situation....those dreams were actually realistic
Ducks?....knew they were rebuilding DAY 1
*While Alamo Bowl / San Antonio is a horrible trip for Frogs.....it's the #2 slot for the (abused) PAC12....any false play-off hopes were shot down SEPT 12 at Sparty anyway
*EMBARRASSED here in TEXAS last year (Ducks recruiting Texas hard now)....this one is huge for the programs direction...> long azz trip back to Eugene with friends/family that came to see you play.....now back in Texas again.......
Frogs LY had one of top victories in school history....maybe 2nd behind Rose Bowl ??
*they came back FAT / HAPPY.....zero pressure here....makes them slightly dangerous here as well you bet
THE PROBLEM?.....in handicapping these bowls....is defining what you mean by motivated
*everybody thinks GAME TIME.....WRONG
few dog it on national TV.....(linemen can hide
a bit better than others)....
** PREPARATION is what suffers
?.....How focused do you think Boykin was before they left FW?.....as the team leader / best player...do you feel he INFLUENCED the younger players?.....WHY HELLl YEAH
$$$ how bout my man VERNON THE BALLER?
in his final game on American soil?........
** is he focused here?............holy crap
Side note on VA....really he's had very little practice time to get the Duck O down pat....
*he got in late...so only what 2-3 weeks in fall....then hurt his finger vs Sparty...so that set him back a few weeks.....
$$$ these extra bowl practices should really help....expect him to look even better here....
ARIZ ST?.....when season began Graham said THIS was his BEST TEAM....
*off a magical trip to El Paso last year to face DUKE....
..NOW they find themselves 6-6 in the CACTUS BOWL....facing a (underachieving yes but capable WV).....EXCITED MUCH?WV ?....off 2 straight bowl losses (no bowl 4-8/2013)....Dana needs this one bad
*IMO........Looks like it was too much / too soon for WV....3-0 (beat the crap outta Ga Southern and Maryland....then @ OU > Okie St > @ Baylor > @ TCU > TT > Texas...
*won last 4....lost last game to a desperate KST away
My thinking here is that they are underrated...and given time to regroup they have the EDGE here and can / should win...
*don't really LOVE it....as they turn the ball over too much to trust....Devils can win this one as well sure
I'll have a bit more on each game tomorrow....
$ If I forget / or pass out drunk again....hey man another day off wtf..........
Love Penn St....they win / keep it tight
K St / Ark....avoid best maybe....Hogs could/should kill KSU....doesn't feel right to me
*lean OVER....maybe KSU 1H ??
Ducks/ Frogs.....Duck D is weak...Frogs should RUN early....probably get out to an early lead....DON'T PANIC....Vernon will settle down...>> eventually run 'em out of the bldg
*note : best player on the field is Duck DE DeForest Buckner.....2nd best is VA.....a probable Heisman Trophy candidate if healthy all year.......
ASU / WV- I did that 1H under....both D's should give others O problems....so with LONG lay-off 32 seems like a lot for 1H here...both play fast so any under is shaky.....1H under maybe good for Oregon /TCU too.....waiting on total to rise....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Posted:
#232
Forgot....already did the TAXSLAYER bowl.............
TAXSLAYER BOWL
PENN STATE (7-5/4-8/4-7-1) vs. GEORGIA (9-3/4-7/2-9)
12:00p E Jacksonville, Florida (Grass Field)
* *low 60's / cloudy / 10mph / no rain
PSU- *HC Franklin 3-1/3-1/1-0 dog in bowls
*OC fired
*O cannot move chains...cannot score RZ...cannot protect (esp passing downs)....only score with big plays.....
note: MUST be able to RUN...esp on 1st /2nd down....avoid 3rd/long....
*** advantage maybe with new OC / Georgia has no idea what they will see
*ST fairly weak...esp defending KR / PR < Georgia strength
*D - a team strength...#1 nation rushing passer
*Georgia should struggle to move it as well
Georgia- HC / OC / DC + others all gone...interim HC will leave for SC right after game.....mascot died a few weeks back....VULTURES were seen circling practice > later perched high in stadium to watch practice .....seriously ha
*LB Kimbrough (3rd LT) and FB Hicks are out
*Ga D great vs efficient / patient O's...weaker vs big play O's > so Penn St matches up ok here
pass D is strength (one of nation's best)
*ST are (relatively) weak...return game is strong < not good for PSU
in-game / halftime-
*PSU - O same all 4....weakest in 3rd Q (only 44 pts all year)
D best in 1Q...weak in 2Q / 3Q....strong in 4th
*Ga - O great in 3rd...weakest in 4th and 1st
D great in 3rd...v good in 1Q...bad in 2Q
$ SURE...Georgia shows up FULLY FOCUSED they punish Penn St......But HOW......can they be ready to play here?
IMO....PSU / HC Franklin will find a way to keep this close...or win outright.....NO PLAY on Georgia here at all IMO
*I played at 7...anything over 3' should be OK...
**note 3Q variance....so adding very small plays on Georgia 3Q...Penn St 4Q...................
TAXSLAYER BOWL
PENN STATE (7-5/4-8/4-7-1) vs. GEORGIA (9-3/4-7/2-9)
12:00p E Jacksonville, Florida (Grass Field)
* *low 60's / cloudy / 10mph / no rain
PSU- *HC Franklin 3-1/3-1/1-0 dog in bowls
*OC fired
*O cannot move chains...cannot score RZ...cannot protect (esp passing downs)....only score with big plays.....
note: MUST be able to RUN...esp on 1st /2nd down....avoid 3rd/long....
*** advantage maybe with new OC / Georgia has no idea what they will see
*ST fairly weak...esp defending KR / PR < Georgia strength
*D - a team strength...#1 nation rushing passer
*Georgia should struggle to move it as well
Georgia- HC / OC / DC + others all gone...interim HC will leave for SC right after game.....mascot died a few weeks back....VULTURES were seen circling practice > later perched high in stadium to watch practice .....seriously ha
*LB Kimbrough (3rd LT) and FB Hicks are out
*Ga D great vs efficient / patient O's...weaker vs big play O's > so Penn St matches up ok here
pass D is strength (one of nation's best)
*ST are (relatively) weak...return game is strong < not good for PSU
in-game / halftime-
*PSU - O same all 4....weakest in 3rd Q (only 44 pts all year)
D best in 1Q...weak in 2Q / 3Q....strong in 4th
*Ga - O great in 3rd...weakest in 4th and 1st
D great in 3rd...v good in 1Q...bad in 2Q
$ SURE...Georgia shows up FULLY FOCUSED they punish Penn St......But HOW......can they be ready to play here?
IMO....PSU / HC Franklin will find a way to keep this close...or win outright.....NO PLAY on Georgia here at all IMO
*I played at 7...anything over 3' should be OK...
**note 3Q variance....so adding very small plays on Georgia 3Q...Penn St 4Q...................
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Posted:
#233
In-game stuff....
IF.....you see that new OC for PSU...has somehow figured out how to run > move it consistently on 1st / 2nd down......they can WIN the game........If not....and we see that YET AGAIN they're forced into 3rd longs......and Georgia D is teeing off on Hackenburg...they will probably lose
*note: 'new OC' for bowl is actually WR coach...seems.like...didn't mean to imply that the actual new hire .....has already installed new O > that would be bad
*he IS making changes...but can't do much in 2-3 weeks
IF.....you see that new OC for PSU...has somehow figured out how to run > move it consistently on 1st / 2nd down......they can WIN the game........If not....and we see that YET AGAIN they're forced into 3rd longs......and Georgia D is teeing off on Hackenburg...they will probably lose
*note: 'new OC' for bowl is actually WR coach...seems.like...didn't mean to imply that the actual new hire .....has already installed new O > that would be bad
*he IS making changes...but can't do much in 2-3 weeks
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Posted:
#235
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
*WHAT the
is he doing?
*WHAT the
is he doing?I wouldn't worry about him, he's probably making up bets to get attention. I can't imagine any bookie letting him bet that much, and moving the line 4 points in his favor, and waving off the juice.
That's like one of your hookers telling you she is really a virgin, from a wealthy family, and just wanting to have an adventure. 
Posted:
#238
This is not meant to be negative. Bookie assassin had been nothing short of uncredible this season. The issue I have with today's picks is that the vaunted "Prediction Machine" which is now advertised at the sports books in Vegas is having its worst College Football season ever. It has released nine prime picks for the bowl season so far...they are 0-9. Today they have three prime picks...Penn St+7, Oregon St even and W. Va +1. Because I have been fading their picks, I had to pass today because Bookie Assasin fell on the same games and I would never fade BA. So no action for me today. Great season, thanks.
Posted:
#241
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
I wouldn't worry about him, he's probably making up bets to get attention. I can't imagine any bookie letting him bet that much, and moving the line 4 points in his favor, and waving off the juice.
That's like one of your hookers telling you she is really a virgin, from a wealthy family, and just wanting to have an adventure.
wish that was the Case ..... In a big Hole Now....
Owe PW $6,800.... IF OREGON LOSES TODAY I AM SCREWED ...LOL......I can give him around 10 and will be paying off the rest for awhile ..... That would suck, just got a nice chunk from my car accident ( BROAD WAS on PILLS AND OUT OF HER MIND....
Sat there at cards last Monday as he took Major action On CLEMSON , including one guy who put down the title on his Truck on CLEMSON ML +125 FOR Much larger than my wager...
HE has been in a horrible mood since the Clemson Win, guessing he LOST A BOAT LOAD...
HE NOW HAS THE JETS -6.5 ..... IF THEY COVER I LIKELY WONT CALL HIM for a till next season...
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
Posted:
#242
CACTUS BOWL
WEST VIRGINIA (7-5/5-7/3-9) vs. ARIZONA STATE (6-6/5-7/3-8-1)
10:15P E Phoenix, Arizona (Retractable Roof; Grass Field)
* see above post for motivational stuff...
full disclosure: I have been on WVirg 2-3X TY > wrong on all counts....I overestimated their D....that struggles vs big play / explosive O's ....like many in B12.
WV - DH 1-2 SU / 1-2 ATS in bowls...LY lost to A&M 45-37/2012 L to Cuse 38-14
*all B12 CB Worley is out...and #3 WR Durante too
ASU - TG 3-2/3-2...LY beat Duke in SB 36-31 /2013 lost to TT 37-23 (-17)...ASU 2-4 SU last 6 bowls
*OC is GONE...note Graham a defensive coach
MATCH-UP
*general- ASU with the better O (better QB / more weapons)...WV with the better D
ST about the same...WV is +11 in turnovers...ASU even
*match-up - WVirg O a running team (run 49X / pass 29X)...that is efficient (#31)...can make big plays but QB Howard inconsistent / limited weapons at WR...note: Howard has been fighting minor injuries all year as well > better here....note RB Smallwood Big12's #1 rusher
ASU D- tough vs efficient O's...one of nation's worst at giving up big plays...allowed 21 passes of 40+ (#129)...30 TD / 13 INT.....their DL is extremely disruptive/ secondary is terrible
BUT....WV OL excels at preventing penetration (#12)..note: ASU RZ D is not a strength........WV RZ O just average
Ariz St O - more balanced (42X rushing / 40X passing)...more explosive than efficient...many more weapons than WV...BAD in RZ.....(no team attempted more RZ FG's than ASU)...
WVirg D - in S&P efficiency ranks #18 vs ASU D #79...pass D the strength (51%..20 TD / 23 INT) ....their DL not as disruptive....havoc is created by back 8 (3-3-5)......
note WVirg D is strong vs efficient O's..vulnerable vs big play O's...BUT very tough in RZ.....no doubt WV will give up a few big plays...key here maybe will WVirg O move the ball well enough to keep their (THIN) D off the field?
$ As stated before...I think WVirginia comes here with more of an edge...AND matches up more favorably than most think
*I'll look for a lower scoring 1H...look to play 2H OVER
still like WV to win / cover..................
WEST VIRGINIA (7-5/5-7/3-9) vs. ARIZONA STATE (6-6/5-7/3-8-1)
10:15P E Phoenix, Arizona (Retractable Roof; Grass Field)
* see above post for motivational stuff...
full disclosure: I have been on WVirg 2-3X TY > wrong on all counts....I overestimated their D....that struggles vs big play / explosive O's ....like many in B12.
WV - DH 1-2 SU / 1-2 ATS in bowls...LY lost to A&M 45-37/2012 L to Cuse 38-14
*all B12 CB Worley is out...and #3 WR Durante too
ASU - TG 3-2/3-2...LY beat Duke in SB 36-31 /2013 lost to TT 37-23 (-17)...ASU 2-4 SU last 6 bowls
*OC is GONE...note Graham a defensive coach
MATCH-UP
*general- ASU with the better O (better QB / more weapons)...WV with the better D
ST about the same...WV is +11 in turnovers...ASU even
*match-up - WVirg O a running team (run 49X / pass 29X)...that is efficient (#31)...can make big plays but QB Howard inconsistent / limited weapons at WR...note: Howard has been fighting minor injuries all year as well > better here....note RB Smallwood Big12's #1 rusher
ASU D- tough vs efficient O's...one of nation's worst at giving up big plays...allowed 21 passes of 40+ (#129)...30 TD / 13 INT.....their DL is extremely disruptive/ secondary is terrible
BUT....WV OL excels at preventing penetration (#12)..note: ASU RZ D is not a strength........WV RZ O just average
Ariz St O - more balanced (42X rushing / 40X passing)...more explosive than efficient...many more weapons than WV...BAD in RZ.....(no team attempted more RZ FG's than ASU)...
WVirg D - in S&P efficiency ranks #18 vs ASU D #79...pass D the strength (51%..20 TD / 23 INT) ....their DL not as disruptive....havoc is created by back 8 (3-3-5)......
note WVirg D is strong vs efficient O's..vulnerable vs big play O's...BUT very tough in RZ.....no doubt WV will give up a few big plays...key here maybe will WVirg O move the ball well enough to keep their (THIN) D off the field?
$ As stated before...I think WVirginia comes here with more of an edge...AND matches up more favorably than most think
*I'll look for a lower scoring 1H...look to play 2H OVER
still like WV to win / cover..................
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Posted:
#243
Quote Originally Posted by robtri:
This is not meant to be negative. Bookie assassin had been nothing short of uncredible this season. The issue I have with today's picks is that the vaunted "Prediction Machine" which is now advertised at the sports books in Vegas is having its worst College Football season ever. It has released nine prime picks for the bowl season so far...they are 0-9. Today they have three prime picks...Penn St+7, Oregon St even and W. Va +1. Because I have been fading their picks, I had to pass today because Bookie Assasin fell on the same games and I would never fade BA. So no action for me today. Great season, thanks.
This is not meant to be negative. Bookie assassin had been nothing short of uncredible this season. The issue I have with today's picks is that the vaunted "Prediction Machine" which is now advertised at the sports books in Vegas is having its worst College Football season ever. It has released nine prime picks for the bowl season so far...they are 0-9. Today they have three prime picks...Penn St+7, Oregon St even and W. Va +1. Because I have been fading their picks, I had to pass today because Bookie Assasin fell on the same games and I would never fade BA. So no action for me today. Great season, thanks.
it's all guesswork my man.........who TF knows.....things could turn UGLY at any moment
*my door bell rings?.....could be hot Asian chick ready to do the devils bizness....psycho with a machete....or worse the IRS....
I'm ready for anything.....ha
BUT....today so far 2-0-1
Ga 3Q W....PSU 4Q W....PSU +7 push......with lost QB
pending KSU / Hogs over....looking good
Ducks/Frogs 1H under
WV/ ASU 1H under
Ducks
FORGOT...
WV / ASU under 1H 'logic'........
Both D's are extremely tough early
*top 10 in nation efficiency D
ASU O weakest...by far in 1-2Q.....WV O best in 3Q...excellent in 2Q.........note ASU O gets BETTER as game progresses...D gets worse....each Q
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Posted:
#244
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
it's all guesswork my man.........who TF knows.....things could turn UGLY at any moment
*my door bell rings?.....could be hot Asian chick ready to do the devils bizness....psycho with a machete....or worse the IRS....
I'm ready for anything.....ha
BUT....today so far 2-0-1
Ga 3Q W....PSU 4Q W....PSU +7 push......with lost QB
pending KSU / Hogs over....looking good
Ducks/Frogs 1H under
WV/ ASU 1H under
Ducks
FORGOT...
WV / ASU under 1H 'logic'........
Both D's are extremely tough early
*top 10 in nation efficiency D
ASU O weakest...by far in 1-2Q.....WV O best in 3Q...excellent in 2Q.........note ASU O gets BETTER as game progresses...D gets worse....each Q
it's all guesswork my man.........who TF knows.....things could turn UGLY at any moment
*my door bell rings?.....could be hot Asian chick ready to do the devils bizness....psycho with a machete....or worse the IRS....
I'm ready for anything.....ha
BUT....today so far 2-0-1
Ga 3Q W....PSU 4Q W....PSU +7 push......with lost QB
pending KSU / Hogs over....looking good
Ducks/Frogs 1H under
WV/ ASU 1H under
Ducks
FORGOT...
WV / ASU under 1H 'logic'........
Both D's are extremely tough early
*top 10 in nation efficiency D
ASU O weakest...by far in 1-2Q.....WV O best in 3Q...excellent in 2Q.........note ASU O gets BETTER as game progresses...D gets worse....each Q
What if it's a hot psycho asian chick with a machete who works for the IRS?
Posted:
#247
Quote Originally Posted by 1bajalife:
BA- Fantastic calls this bowl season. It's really fun to see someone like you and a few others excel at their craft. Few have the talent to do it at your level. Happy New Year and good luck through the last few games.
BA- Fantastic calls this bowl season. It's really fun to see someone like you and a few others excel at their craft. Few have the talent to do it at your level. Happy New Year and good luck through the last few games.
THANKS !!!!!.....................
Few skills tho my man ....just a dumb southern boy sitting here ...working harder rather than SMARTER.......with a cheap computer and a BIG CHIEF tablet / fat #2 pencil..............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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