Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

Damn you Charleston. I quit teasers for good. i swear. really. I am.

Was anyone watching that N. Arizona finish.  3 3 pointers to cover at the end. cheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

System is working like a charm I agree with that if you bet against the 65% thats betting against the public, I'm saying for games that follow the system only. Great work beaver, been following you for weeks. You and everyone have made this system quite profitable

If there is a system play and the team that we are supposed to bet on is on the opposite end of the public we play the game. A system play is only not a play if the team we are supposed to bet on is the team that has the 65%. So in essence we already "fade" the public with system plays but we don't do it because they are the anti-public bet. We do it because the play is a system play.

beaver- Wow thanks alt for all your hard work as well as the other guys contributing to this system and sharing info for others to make money!!  I was with the system yesterday and today and ive been doing great.... Oh yeah I was going to take Washington and I read your post aout it not qualifying and therefore stayed away!

Again I want to thank you all for the info!!! Lets hope it continues

BOL and crush the books

 

Anyone know the Kenpom number and Vegas opening line for the Hawaii game starting in 20 mins.  Could use the info. if anyone has it.  Thank you very much in advance.  UDAMAN BEAVER!!!

I have  4 winners and 1 loss .........as of now.keep it going!!!!

KP: Hawaii -9

 LA Lafayette, Penn St. ML, and Wash St. ML 

Needaline 1 St.....If your forceing a play take the points.  It's not a system play; but the dog i think is the right side.   GL

I'm just a local here in Hawaii and we look damn good this year.  I was almost positive Kenpom's number might be lower than Vegas with Hawaii being historically bad.  Now Vegas should over value us and then we lose outright. Ur right though should be a no-play. 

Thanks for the info. flyerlax. 

I have finals..the system....5-2  with the top plays..(away) going 2-0 ......please correct me if i,m wrong 

If only that San Jose would have hit for us boys.  Still a big day once again.  Keep up the good work.  Wish I could tell Kenpom the same.  He used to make me money when he was here and he's still helping today.Cheers to you Kenpom!!  And Beaver!!  U guys are the bomb

Another good day Beaver.  Small card tomorrow then onto a big card for Saturday. 

Looks like no plays for tomorrow. Gives us more time to digest the massive Saturday card. Nice night tonight. Let's keep it rolling for Saturday 

Kelly Criterion Method
Yesterday: 5-2 +129.1
Since 1/13/2012: 67% or 28-14
Total: +505.62

Week 9 Inputs
Starting bankroll: 500.00
Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 42
Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57.4% or53
Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 59.5% or 75
Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 60.2% or 82
Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 52.8% or 4
Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 53.9% or 16
Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 54.5%% or 22
Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55.5% or 33

Note, I left the starting bankroll input at 500.00 for week 9.  I'm going to wait for a full week to change this input, so all inputs will be refreshed at the start of week 10.

Youngstown St. looks like a play.  KP at +4, opening line according to VegasInsider +1.5

Apparently BetOnline.com opened with this line yesterday at 1:00 pm.  No one else posted a line until after 5:00 after the Betonline had move the line to 3.

Thoughts?

If there is really a 3 point difference then it is a play. BetOnline isn't listed on the covers line moves page for some reason so the earliest opening line there is at +3

2.5 pt difference. Sorry. 

I usually go to Vegas Insider.  They seem to be pretty reliable and if you click on any of the line links, it will take you to a detail of all line history for each book from the opening.  The first page will be Vegas books but at the top there is a link for the offshore books, that's where I got the data for Betonline opening at 1.5 yesterday afternoon.

I don't know if there has been a discussion about whether or not to ignore certain books.  I am assuming any of the major offshores is valid for opening lines.

Is Rider a play if Kenpom has the game by 21 and the spread is 16.5?  I think it opened @ 18?