Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

35-23 last week.  Lets keep it up!

YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (%)

For the week: 0-0 (%)

For the year: 187-148 (56%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 94-82 (53%)
Road Teams: 74-50 (60%)

Favorites: 74-63 (54%)
Dogs:     113-85 (57%)

Line moved toward KP:  127-115 (52%)
Line moved away KP:  47-20 (70%)

Official Monday Plays:

Louisville +4.5 (RDT)
Idaho St +10 (RDT)

Kelly Criterion Method
Since 1/13/2012: 61% or 14-9
Total: +237.42

Week 9 Inputs
Starting bankroll: 500.00
Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 42
Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57.4% or53
Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 59.5% or 75
Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 60.2% or 82
Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 52.8% or 4
Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 53.9% or 16
Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 54.5%% or 22
Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55.5% or 33

Note, I left the starting bankroll input at 500.00 for week 9.  I'm going to wait for a full week to change this input, so all inputs will be refreshed at the start of week 10.

beaver can you explain how Louisville is a play. Based on what I have read you guys are using betonline openers. Louisville opened at +4.5 and currently that is where the line is at the majority of the offshores and a few sprinkled +4.

Trying to learn here thanks for your reply or anyone elses.

jr

 

IT opened at +4.5 but Kenpom had them losing by 7 for a difference of 2.5 qualifying it for his system.

Louisville is a play because there is a large enough difference between what BetOnline opened at and what Kenpom has. Kenpom has Louisville at +7 and BetOnline had them open at +4 so the 3 pt difference qualifies as a play. 

I've tried to understand these threads for some time now, but I really need some help. If you are using Kenpom as a source of information, their prediction that Marquette will beat Louisville by 7 points would make Marquette -4.5 the play. Why is Louisville the play? 

what does RDT? Is Lousiville moving away from the line?

sorry!!!!!!! i missed it! thanks!

This is the part that has alluded me as well. In the majority of stat based systems the advantage is the play.

I've been wondering like you. If Kenpom says Marquette by 7 and they are favored by 4-4.5 and have an advantage of 2.5 to 3 why Louisville?

Also I must be doing something wrong when I used the spreadsheet I posted in week 8 from the blog site. I came up with Marquette by 3. Is there a home team advantage that should be added.

where does this kp line come from is it a site? I want to start using it in my play and how I stat the games

Team LouisvilleTeam MarquetteAverage

		69.25

https://kenpom.com/index.php

Team 1Team 2Average

		69.25

Not to be snarky, BUT.... if you go through all of Beavers threads (basically 8) he explains very clearly how the system works and why. There are answers to every question being asked week after week - you just have to do your own work and find them.

Team Lousiville 

Rating 0.8354

Offense 102.8

Defense 87.7

Tempo 67.9

Team Marquette

Rating 0.8911

Offense 111.3

Defense 90.6

Tempo 70.6

Average

Average Offense 107.05

Average Defense 89.15

Average Tempo 69.25

Team 1 Victory % 38.3%

Possessions 69

Team 1 Score 69

Team 2 Score 72

So what I am asking here is this. Marquette shows winning by 3, are you adding some amount for home court advantage. I am guessing 4 to get Marquette by 7.

I am either using wrong data or the excel sheet I am using is wrong.

 

JRivers,

Ur killing us..

Marquette 71-64 (74%)  Predicted Outcome...You must spend the $20

Louisville is a play because we always side with Vegas. If Vegas has a lower favorite than kenpom we side Vegas and pick the underdog. If Vegas has a larger favorite than kenpom we side with Vegas and take the higher favorite. The theory being that Vegas knows more than kenpom who is all stat based and doesn't take into account recent play, injuries etc. As was said earlier, you can go back and a lot of these answers are in previous threads. These questions were asked and answered over and over. 

Beav, to clean up these threads u may want to document the rules in a 3rd grade language and either paste it in each thread u create or link to it. 

BTW, simply just fading KenPom has been hitting at a near 60% clip so far this season. Logically, that seems expected since he needs enough data to precisely predict but usually, he's not this far off. 

Idaho Stae gets manhandled today

note to Rick Pitino, that zone defense isn't working

I found a website that presents the opening lines in a table view that can be easily copy / pasted into Excel, even without importing and reformatting.

https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/basketball.php

Click on "NCAA Prediction Tracker"

The opening odds displayed their matched 9 for 9 with the odds being pulled from covers or betonline.com

This, along with the previously mentioned method formula to "extract" the KenPom line should give everyone an easier, less-human way of finding the deltas we are all so interested in.