Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

No. The 3 point difference between 21 and 18 is a no play.

Bobcat, would you mind explaining why not?  I thought a 3 point difference meets the criterion.

Nope, at 21 the differential between kp and the opening line has to be at least 5 pts.  Line movements are not used to determine whether its a play.

Oooooh word so b/c Youngstown St. opened @ 1.5 and Kenpom is @ 4, it could be considered a play?

anybody notice the # of away teams that covered yesterday at 35-9 ,,is unreal

Right, plus the public betting is 70% on Wisc-Mil, which makes it all the more attractive to me.  WisM doesn't play that great on the road.  YS is pretty strong offensively, not so much defensively, but they generally play pretty strong at home.

  Hard to qualify that they play pretty strong at home, as the small sample size, 6 home games so far this year, doesn't tell the whole story.  I'm on them catching the points and ML so hope they play like Supermen at home.  BOL

so YS would be a no play, correct?

Sscott where do you click to get the line history? If you click on the link to the current line it brings you to BetOnline.com

Incorrect.  YS IS a play based on BO's opening line of 1.5.  Public betting is heavily against them.  It would only be a no play if public betting was heavily for them (i.e. > 65%).

Only play I'm seeing for tonight, and Beaver will be the ultimate judge ofcourse is:

YSU +2 1/2 opened +1.5/ KP +4 (Home, Dog, Toward)

 

If you go to the current lines on VegasInsider.com  and click on any of the lines EXCEPT under the offshores (I would just click on the consensus line next to the opening line), it will take you to the line movement history for all of the Vegas books.  On THAT page, click on the "Offshore Movements" link at the top and it will show you history for all of the offshore movements.

Gotcha. Thanks. That's a nice alternative to covers. I may start using it. So yes it does appear that Youngstown St. is a play with the 2.5 differential. 

Pretty strange that betonline isn't listed in the covers line moves...but, i'm willing to roll with the vegas insider opening line.

Official Friday Plays:

Youngstown St +2.5 HDT

I doubt there will be much of a change on kenpom's ratings from tonights games, so lets get a head start on tomorrow's card.  I will be out of town again, so any help is appreciated.

I'll be working on it Beaver.

I weeded out the KenPom lines, home/away, etc. on this Google spreadsheet. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgySzPjpSISsdFNHcUUxYzFnU0MtNUhBbEloc05Gc2c

This should make it easier for everyone to smurf out the opening lines and match them up so we can win a lot of games tomorrow.

Bored at work today so I took a stab at tomorrow's large card. This has not been weeded out for 65% action yet so:

New Mexico St @ Hawaii (+2 / KP+5)

Maryland @ Temple (-9.5 / KP-14)

Villanova @ St Johns (+1.5 / KP+5)

SMU @ Memphis (-13 / KP-17)

Kansas St @ Oklahoma St (+2.5 / KP+6)

Yale @ Brown (+3.5 / KP+8)

Indiana St @ Creighton (-12 / KP-16)

Boise St @ TCU (-4.5 / KP-1)

Oklahoma St -1 @ Texas A&M -4 (over the zero)

Florida St @ Duke (-12 / KP-7)

Rhode Island @ La Salle (-15 / KP-20)

Towson @ Geo Mason (-24.5 / KP-19)

Arizona St @ Utah (+4.5 / KP+9)

Iowa St @ Texas Tech (+4.5 / KP+10)

Duquesne @ St Louis (-9 / KP-14)

IUPUI @ UMKC (pk / KP-3)

Oakland @ Oral Roberts (-8.5 / KP-15)

Murray St @ SIU Edwardsville (+17 / KP+21)

Air Force @ San Diego St (-15 / KP-11)

St Mary’s @ Santa Clara (+9.5 / KP+14)

Good Stuff Bobcat, I havent had a chance to look it over yet. Thanks for the work.

Those openings are from Betonline at about 2pm PST.

Thanks bro, I was getting ready to pm you. All I can find is bookmaker.

1-0! 

Preliminary card for tomorrow, details to come.