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Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

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Posted: #176
One more time, Preliminary card for Sat., details to come.

Utah
Eastern Ill
Indiana St.
Citadel
Duke
N. AZ
Tex Tech
TX
OK ST
RI
Pitt
SMU
Mont ST
TAMU
Oakland
Tulsa
San Diego St.
Marshall
Duq
Santa Clara
Maryland
Texas Christian
LA Monroe
Fullerton
St. John's
Brown

 
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Posted: #177
Quote: Originally Posted by sscott999] One more time, Preliminary card for Sat., details to come.

Utah
Eastern Ill
Indiana St.
Citadel
Duke
N. AZ
Tex Tech
TX
OK ST
RI
Pitt
SMU
Mont ST
TAMU
Oakland
Tulsa
San Diego St.
Marshall
Duq
Santa Clara
Maryland
Texas Christian
LA Monroe
Fullerton
St. John's
Brown

[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #178
Good stuff Scott and Bobcat. I ll get mine out here after the kiddo goes to bed.
 
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Posted: #179
great job on youngstown much appreciated
 
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Posted: #180

I agree on everything except I have

;\Wash as a play KP-1 open -3.5

Show E.Ill as kp+2 open +1  no play

Marshall kp+3 open +2.5

 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by rokisky:

great job on youngstown much appreciated


Yep, and the public betting was around 70% on Milwaukee.  Would loved to have seen the looks on everyone's face when YS pulled back ahead and won it.
 
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Posted: #182
nice winner tonight boys! I'm glad someone caught that game, I would not have seen it from the covers website. 

Looks like I will have a little time to go over the card tonight. I'd love to get official plays out tonight so there is no mad dash in the morning. I'm on the west coast so first game will start at 8am for me

Thanks again to everyone helping out!
 
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by bailey314:

I agree on everything except I have

;\Wash as a play KP-1 open -3.5

Show E.Ill as kp+2 open +1  no play

Marshall kp+3 open +2.5



KP may have updated.  My original list was based on KPs numbers as of 4 pm.  He had Marshall at +5.
 
 
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Posted: #184
ok so we play the games listed right.  and don't shit on me and say read the thread
 
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Posted: #185
Guys, where did BetOnline's opening lines disappear to?  Doing it on Vegas insiders site is really cumbersome.  please advise
 
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Posted: #186

Quote Originally Posted by Davebons1976:

ok so we play the games listed right.  and don't shit on me and say read the thread

You play whatever you want, the guys put a lot of work into this and present you their information. From the looks of it there will be quite a few listed plays however you will not be able to get a good read on the bet trends till tomorrow. The 65% betting trend has been very key in my mind.

 
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Posted: #187
Can someone post the modified point separation spread system such as 0-4 is 2 and so on. Thanks in advance
 
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Posted: #188

Quote Originally Posted by Candyman2011:

Can someone post the modified point separation spread system such as 0-4 is 2 and so on. Thanks in advance

From beaverfan23's week 8 post

Posted: 1/12/2012 3:26:31 PMAlright I have been doing some backtracking for the last few hours...I changed the criteria to as follows:

0-4 must have 2.5 point difference
4.5-8 must have 3 point difference
8.5-12 must have a 3.5 point difference
12.5-15.5 must have 4 point difference
16+ must have a 5 point difference

I went through the first few weeks of the season and using this criteria produced a higher winning percentage AND decreased the number of plays (two things that I love).

This will be the official criteria starting tomorrow

 
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Posted: #189
0-4 2.5 pt difference
4.5-8 3 pt difference
8.5-12 3.5 pt difference 
12.5-15.5 4 pt difference
16+ 5 pt difference
 
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Posted: #190
Has anyone noticed ssott99 post#171 and Bobcat 36 post #169 has a few differences in plays?????!!!!!!???????  So do what you want, but it MIGHT be smart to wait for the offical "beaver plays" with the 65% rule .PLUS the away moves that hit at +70%.  imo.  wait .the ca$h will come.  don't pull the trigger yet.
 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by 11spread11:

Has anyone noticed ssott99 post#171 and Bobcat 36 post #169 has a few differences in plays?????!!!!!!???????  So do what you want, but it MIGHT be smart to wait for the offical "beaver plays" with the 65% rule .PLUS the away moves that hit at +70%.  imo.  wait .the ca$h will come.  don't pull the trigger yet.

You;re exactly right. i crunched the games and didn't wait for the 65% rule. All of the games I posted fit the criteria BEFORE 65% filter is in place. Beaver or one of the other guys will tighten it up before tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #192

Hey guys just wana say thank you for all your hard work and trying to understand the system on my own where I can hopefully contribute some information!!! Do you think it would be possible to start a new thread with the new plays or are you all keeping one thread for the week? I think there was a little confusion here with the plays. If not its ok.

BOL to all of us this weekend!! 

 
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Posted: #193
this is week 9.  Beaver will start a new one i believe on monday.
 
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Posted: #194
Ok cool thanks brutha!!
 
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Posted: #195

Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:


You;re exactly right. i crunched the games and didn't wait for the 65% rule. All of the games I posted fit the criteria BEFORE 65% filter is in place. Beaver or one of the other guys will tighten it up before tomorrow.

I usually dont look at the 65% rule until the next day. That way is saturated a little. Was looking to run numbers too tonight, but cant find the betonline opening numbers. Covers still have them off at the moment for me.

Someone mentioned play the plays listed. I d wait until we get an offical list.

 
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Posted: #196

Thanks again to Scott and Bobcat. I ll run mine in the early am. (I trust you guys but it helps me with further bets throughout the day)

Thanks fellas.

 
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Posted: #197
Since you are betting with Vegas it is better to wait anyway. The lines should move in this systems favor most of the time.
 
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Posted: #198
when u post the plays can u group them with the times of the games like u did before?
 
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Posted: #199
Daman3333: Why don't you spend some time looking it up yourself. Very selfish if you ask me..... Contribute like everyone else is trying to do. Can't believe ppl these days.... Someone feeds you free steaks and you ask if you could get a free beer with it
 
 
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Posted: #200
What's a link to find opening spread lines?
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