I think the hard thing for some to comprehend (as well as myself @ first) is why you choose to side w/ line openings (Vegas) rather than Kenpom b/c many regard Kenpom as a great site for information. This is HIS SYSTEM and you have to respect it because he has a plan.
Check out Ken Pom's blog post on 11-11-11. He talks about this exact situation
0
Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:
I think the hard thing for some to comprehend (as well as myself @ first) is why you choose to side w/ line openings (Vegas) rather than Kenpom b/c many regard Kenpom as a great site for information. This is HIS SYSTEM and you have to respect it because he has a plan.
Check out Ken Pom's blog post on 11-11-11. He talks about this exact situation
Beaver I have a question concerning the system and the top 3 games on FanMatch.
1) UNC @ Va Tech. Kenpom has them @ 3. This is the public's favorite game and the spread has moved all the way to 7.5. Now I know the system says to take UNC, but because the public is so heavy on UNC, do you personally think Va Tech is the better play here?
2) UCLA @ Oregon State. Kenpom has Oregon St. by 2, but it also says ****UCLA is better than Oregon St. by about 25 teams**** With the public heavily on Oregon State, doesn't UCLA (whose been playing great) look life a gift??
3) Cal @ Washington. Kenpom has Cal by 5. They are about 75 teams better than Washington. Again, with the public heavy on Oregon State does Cal seem to be a gift?
Beaver, I guess the point/question i am trying to make/ask is if you have had any experience w/ this. Obviously the system will not be flawless and is unlikely to be positive every night. Do you have any history w/ these kinds of teams: 1 Kenpom has slated as much better, 2 they are underdogs, and 3 the public is running away from?
*Using the system I will def. be taking Washington State and most likely San Jose State, but I was just wondering if you had any thoughts on UCLA and Cal.
0
Beaver I have a question concerning the system and the top 3 games on FanMatch.
1) UNC @ Va Tech. Kenpom has them @ 3. This is the public's favorite game and the spread has moved all the way to 7.5. Now I know the system says to take UNC, but because the public is so heavy on UNC, do you personally think Va Tech is the better play here?
2) UCLA @ Oregon State. Kenpom has Oregon St. by 2, but it also says ****UCLA is better than Oregon St. by about 25 teams**** With the public heavily on Oregon State, doesn't UCLA (whose been playing great) look life a gift??
3) Cal @ Washington. Kenpom has Cal by 5. They are about 75 teams better than Washington. Again, with the public heavy on Oregon State does Cal seem to be a gift?
Beaver, I guess the point/question i am trying to make/ask is if you have had any experience w/ this. Obviously the system will not be flawless and is unlikely to be positive every night. Do you have any history w/ these kinds of teams: 1 Kenpom has slated as much better, 2 they are underdogs, and 3 the public is running away from?
*Using the system I will def. be taking Washington State and most likely San Jose State, but I was just wondering if you had any thoughts on UCLA and Cal.
I decided to ML Canisius because using the Kelly method that was a real small bet amount. Figured it would be worth the risk considering the juice would eat up lots of profit on a straight wager of that small size.
Note to the regulars in here: I check your friend requests. I sent friend requests to a bunch of you guys that regularly contribute and help out. Let's have a big night and get those bankrolls ready for the weekend!
0
I'll let Beaver handle the above.
I decided to ML Canisius because using the Kelly method that was a real small bet amount. Figured it would be worth the risk considering the juice would eat up lots of profit on a straight wager of that small size.
Note to the regulars in here: I check your friend requests. I sent friend requests to a bunch of you guys that regularly contribute and help out. Let's have a big night and get those bankrolls ready for the weekend!
Was just double checking the plays tonight. Correct me if im wrong, but dont see how NC Greensboro is a play. Kenpom has NC Green +2 and Betonline opened it at pick. Thats only a difference of 2. Doesn't it need to be a diff of 2.5 in the 0-4 range to be a play? Maybe I misread something.
0
Was just double checking the plays tonight. Correct me if im wrong, but dont see how NC Greensboro is a play. Kenpom has NC Green +2 and Betonline opened it at pick. Thats only a difference of 2. Doesn't it need to be a diff of 2.5 in the 0-4 range to be a play? Maybe I misread something.
Was just double checking the plays tonight. Correct me if im wrong, but dont see how NC Greensboro is a play. Kenpom has NC Green +2 and Betonline opened it at pick. Thats only a difference of 2. Doesn't it need to be a diff of 2.5 in the 0-4 range to be a play? Maybe I misread something.
If you read what I posted....
I said I know they are only a 2 pt difference but I am playing them because of the away line movement
0
Quote Originally Posted by Grabano:
Was just double checking the plays tonight. Correct me if im wrong, but dont see how NC Greensboro is a play. Kenpom has NC Green +2 and Betonline opened it at pick. Thats only a difference of 2. Doesn't it need to be a diff of 2.5 in the 0-4 range to be a play? Maybe I misread something.
If you read what I posted....
I said I know they are only a 2 pt difference but I am playing them because of the away line movement
Beaver I have a question concerning the system and the top 3 games on FanMatch.
1) UNC @ Va Tech. Kenpom has them @ 3. This is the public's favorite game and the spread has moved all the way to 7.5. Now I know the system says to take UNC, but because the public is so heavy on UNC, do you personally think Va Tech is the better play here?
2) UCLA @ Oregon State. Kenpom has Oregon St. by 2, but it also says ****UCLA is better than Oregon St. by about 25 teams**** With the public heavily on Oregon State, doesn't UCLA (whose been playing great) look life a gift??
3) Cal @ Washington. Kenpom has Cal by 5. They are about 75 teams better than Washington. Again, with the public heavy on Oregon State does Cal seem to be a gift?
Beaver, I guess the point/question i am trying to make/ask is if you have had any experience w/ this. Obviously the system will not be flawless and is unlikely to be positive every night. Do you have any history w/ these kinds of teams: 1 Kenpom has slated as much better, 2 they are underdogs, and 3 the public is running away from?
*Using the system I will def. be taking Washington State and most likely San Jose State, but I was just wondering if you had any thoughts on UCLA and Cal.
#1 UNC would be a play, but I don't play anything that gets over 65% on covers contests. So that game is a NO PLAY for me.
#2 Oregon St is the favorite because they are at home and it is difficult to win on the road in conference play. This game is not a system play and I know very little about either team. NO PLAY
#3 Washington was over 65% earlier today. NO PLAY
I guess I need to start posting the system rules each week for those who are not familiar with how it works. System plays with over 65% lose more often than not...therefore, they are no plays.
Hope this helps
0
Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:
Beaver I have a question concerning the system and the top 3 games on FanMatch.
1) UNC @ Va Tech. Kenpom has them @ 3. This is the public's favorite game and the spread has moved all the way to 7.5. Now I know the system says to take UNC, but because the public is so heavy on UNC, do you personally think Va Tech is the better play here?
2) UCLA @ Oregon State. Kenpom has Oregon St. by 2, but it also says ****UCLA is better than Oregon St. by about 25 teams**** With the public heavily on Oregon State, doesn't UCLA (whose been playing great) look life a gift??
3) Cal @ Washington. Kenpom has Cal by 5. They are about 75 teams better than Washington. Again, with the public heavy on Oregon State does Cal seem to be a gift?
Beaver, I guess the point/question i am trying to make/ask is if you have had any experience w/ this. Obviously the system will not be flawless and is unlikely to be positive every night. Do you have any history w/ these kinds of teams: 1 Kenpom has slated as much better, 2 they are underdogs, and 3 the public is running away from?
*Using the system I will def. be taking Washington State and most likely San Jose State, but I was just wondering if you had any thoughts on UCLA and Cal.
#1 UNC would be a play, but I don't play anything that gets over 65% on covers contests. So that game is a NO PLAY for me.
#2 Oregon St is the favorite because they are at home and it is difficult to win on the road in conference play. This game is not a system play and I know very little about either team. NO PLAY
#3 Washington was over 65% earlier today. NO PLAY
I guess I need to start posting the system rules each week for those who are not familiar with how it works. System plays with over 65% lose more often than not...therefore, they are no plays.
Northshot, fading the public isn't necessarily an easy way to make $$, b/c I have tried it before, but using this system you notice a lot of easy non public plays. The three picks I gave...... Kenpom believed these three teams to be better than their opponents and the public was against them. There are a variety of ways to use Kenpom to your advantage
0
Northshot, fading the public isn't necessarily an easy way to make $$, b/c I have tried it before, but using this system you notice a lot of easy non public plays. The three picks I gave...... Kenpom believed these three teams to be better than their opponents and the public was against them. There are a variety of ways to use Kenpom to your advantage
Hot Forum Topics
