Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

I think I echo a good portion of people, 24 games in one day is too many for any system.

Somewhere in this thread I read about betting $100 on every game was up $2500+

Today alone on that line of thinking you had to win 13 of 24 games at $110-$100 to win $80.

Meaning you put $2,640 in action to net $80 if you won 13 of 24.

Through 22 games today, I've talled it to be 6-15-1 or 6-16 depending on the line you got with the push which became a loss.

That's a loss of -1160 at a 6-16 rate.

Part of the problem I see is that multiple people are coming up with games and some match, some don't and there's a sense of confusion of what should/shouldn't be in the mix.

What happens when a line moves, should I play second halves, what if, etc etc etc...

I'll state again, I would never use Covers for the 65% ratio. It's too small of a sample and it's people paying to play in contest pools.

I'd much rather use real live betting samples from multiple sportsbooks that people actually wager real $ to get a % number.

I would use Pinnacle openers as a test run against Betonline and then and then only use the games that match the system.

I would look to redefine what constitutes a play or not and you must take into account the line move. Lines move for a lot of reason, late scratches or steam action. You can't just go by an opening number to make a selection.

This would never apply for NFL or NCAA Football. You have to use the current line because that's what people are going to be betting on. If the opener was -10 and was a play, would it still be a play at -12 or -13?  If you were taking +10 would it be a play at +7 or +7.5

I like the concept so don't think this is a bash because it's not. I see it as a viable option to use but not a 100% basis to place hard earned $ on blindly.

I would get a free blog site and outline the entire thought process behind this and let's work on tweaking it. It's very hard to go back to other posts and mix/match up posts to figure out what should/shouldn't be done because too many people are adding input or answering and who knows if it's right or wrong. Truly only beaverfan knows 100% as it appears his system he came up with.

I think everyone elses role is to evaluate, tinker and recommend tweaks and changes to:

A. Clearly define the process from start to finish. In other words what do you need, how do you calculate and how are you calculating.

B. Try different parameters to lower the number of games played and increase the probabilty of winning based on said parameter testing.

C. Create a spreadsheet that anyone can either download, view and change the data to tweak. I don't know if anyone knows how to use excel and export the data from different websites but that's the easiest way without someone manually doing the transfer of data, plus you can hit one button to update the data anytime you want.

I am not trying to hijack the topic or the concept, I am not a tech person but strong with math and as I said can see some value in this but I see a lot of opportunity for tweaking. Appreciate beaverfan for putting this out there and all those that contribute to help move it forward.

jr

Hey guys, first of all let me thank you for all your hard work annalyzing these games and trying to find the best way to apply the system.

Last year I came up with an NBA system, which was dependent on the info that covers used to supply from LOGANS.COM. The system was basicly if the spread or over/under moved by 2 or more points in one direction and Logans.com bettors were 70 % on the other side, I sided with the line movement. It hit at a 69% rate.

That being said, I think someone else had suggested finding a way to get the betting data from a website about who's betting on who. I think that is the key, except my main source, Logans.com, is no longer in business.

If someone can find a website that has a large clientele and gives out the betting details of the customers, that would be huge!

Once again thanks for all the hard work!