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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

    «First Previous 456 ... 141516 Next Last»
    poboy54236
    beaverfan23
    trabs9
    indiana49er
    featherstone222
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 41132
    Posts: 377
    «First Previous 456 ... 141516 Next Last»
     
    poboy54236
    poboy54236
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 1:22 PM ET #76

       good stuff guys
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       good stuff guys
     
    beaverfan23
    beaverfan23
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 3:18 PM ET #77

    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)
    Nova -1 (HFT)
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)
    UCF -1 (HDA)
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)

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    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)
    Nova -1 (HFT)
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)
    UCF -1 (HDA)
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)

     
    trabs9
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 3:36 PM ET #78

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    trabs9
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 4:25 PM ET #79

    Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)
    Nova -1 (HFT)
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)
    UCF -1 (HDA)
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)

    Did you get UCF -1 for a HFA or +1 for a HDA?

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    Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)
    Nova -1 (HFT)
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)
    UCF -1 (HDA)
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)

    Did you get UCF -1 for a HFA or +1 for a HDA?

     
    indiana49er
    indiana49er
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 5:54 PM ET #80

    Good luck to all
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    Good luck to all
     
    featherstone222
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 6:07 PM ET #81

    not to be a d**k ..but can someone point me in the direction of a thread that explains the RDN, HDA etc?

    keep up the good work all.

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    not to be a d**k ..but can someone point me in the direction of a thread that explains the RDN, HDA etc?

    keep up the good work all.

     
    Bobcat36
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 6:12 PM ET #82

    Quote Originally Posted by featherstone222:

    not to be a d**k ..but can someone point me in the direction of a thread that explains the RDN, HDA etc?

    keep up the good work all.


    I'm feeling magnanimous. Road Dog None (as in line move); Home Fave Towards (as in Towards Kenpom); Road Fave Away (as in Away from Kenpom).

    Of course, chances are that won't mean much to you either and that is because you haven't taken the time to read more of Beaver's threads where everything is laid out crystal clear for all to see.


    Do not ask me what Kenpom is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by featherstone222:

    not to be a d**k ..but can someone point me in the direction of a thread that explains the RDN, HDA etc?

    keep up the good work all.


    I'm feeling magnanimous. Road Dog None (as in line move); Home Fave Towards (as in Towards Kenpom); Road Fave Away (as in Away from Kenpom).

    Of course, chances are that won't mean much to you either and that is because you haven't taken the time to read more of Beaver's threads where everything is laid out crystal clear for all to see.


    Do not ask me what Kenpom is.

     
    kkirby99
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 6:47 PM ET #83

    I've got Cen Mich., N. Iowa and Mississippi as well beav. Miss was a PK vs KP +3  N. Iowa was +1 vs KP +3 and Cen Mich was -1 vs KP +1 and Cen Mich is moving away.
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    I've got Cen Mich., N. Iowa and Mississippi as well beav. Miss was a PK vs KP +3  N. Iowa was +1 vs KP +3 and Cen Mich was -1 vs KP +1 and Cen Mich is moving away.
     
    stiffler1705
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 7:01 PM ET #84

    Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

    I've got Cen Mich., N. Iowa and Mississippi as well beav. Miss was a PK vs KP +3  N. Iowa was +1 vs KP +3 and Cen Mich was -1 vs KP +1 and Cen Mich is moving away.

    CMU Opened -1/ KP +1 (No play not 2.5pt difference)

    N. Iowa opened +2.5/ KP +3 (No play)

    Miss opened +2/ KP +3 (no play)

    hope this helps kirby

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    Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

    I've got Cen Mich., N. Iowa and Mississippi as well beav. Miss was a PK vs KP +3  N. Iowa was +1 vs KP +3 and Cen Mich was -1 vs KP +1 and Cen Mich is moving away.

    CMU Opened -1/ KP +1 (No play not 2.5pt difference)

    N. Iowa opened +2.5/ KP +3 (No play)

    Miss opened +2/ KP +3 (no play)

    hope this helps kirby

     
    Upside
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 9:41 PM ET #85

    Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)
    Nova -1 (HFT)
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)
    UCF -1 (HDA)
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)

    Come C Fla and Ok St .. Not a bad day gents !! 1 loser is the goal !!
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    Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)
    Nova -1 (HFT)
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)
    UCF -1 (HDA)
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)

    Come C Fla and Ok St .. Not a bad day gents !! 1 loser is the goal !!
     
    11spread11
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 9:48 PM ET #86

    5winners 1loss what I see as of now
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    5winners 1loss what I see as of now
     
    TommyGunner
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 9:51 PM ET #87

    Wow Beaver thank you so much your system gave me the best night I've had in weeks and I've been en fuego!!  Tonight I went with:

    Nebraska ML
    GWU ML (it moved to 2, but I know it didn't quite apply)
    Northeastern
    Duquense
    Villanova

    5-0 w/ Oklahoma St. pending and probably going to go with New Mexico.  I LOVE this system, earlier in the season I had been doing the opposite and siding with Kenpom rather than Vegas.  
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    Wow Beaver thank you so much your system gave me the best night I've had in weeks and I've been en fuego!!  Tonight I went with:

    Nebraska ML
    GWU ML (it moved to 2, but I know it didn't quite apply)
    Northeastern
    Duquense
    Villanova

    5-0 w/ Oklahoma St. pending and probably going to go with New Mexico.  I LOVE this system, earlier in the season I had been doing the opposite and siding with Kenpom rather than Vegas.  
     
    trabs9
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 9:59 PM ET #88

    6-1

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    6-1

     
    Needaline1st
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 10:32 PM ET #89

    What a hit on UCF!!  Great job once again to all contributors.  Thank you much for your hard work and also laying your nuts on the line for the haters by posting. 
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    What a hit on UCF!!  Great job once again to all contributors.  Thank you much for your hard work and also laying your nuts on the line for the haters by posting. 
     
    trabs9
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 11:22 PM ET #90

    Kelly Criterion Method
    Tonight: 7-1 +142.70
    Since 1/13/2012: 61% or 23-12
    Total: +376.52

    Week 9 Inputs
    Starting bankroll: 500.00
    Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 42
    Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57.4% or53
    Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 59.5% or 75
    Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 60.2% or 82
    Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 52.8% or 4
    Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 53.9% or 16
    Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 54.5%% or 22
    Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55.5% or 33

    Note, I left the starting bankroll input at 500.00 for week 9.  I'm going to wait for a full week to change this input, so all inputs will be refreshed at the start of week 10.

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    Kelly Criterion Method
    Tonight: 7-1 +142.70
    Since 1/13/2012: 61% or 23-12
    Total: +376.52

    Week 9 Inputs
    Starting bankroll: 500.00
    Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 42
    Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57.4% or53
    Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 59.5% or 75
    Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 60.2% or 82
    Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 52.8% or 4
    Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 53.9% or 16
    Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 54.5%% or 22
    Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55.5% or 33

    Note, I left the starting bankroll input at 500.00 for week 9.  I'm going to wait for a full week to change this input, so all inputs will be refreshed at the start of week 10.

     
    stiffler1705
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 11:24 PM ET #91

    Beaver, atleast with the lines I had 8-2-1.

    Another great night. I'm at the firestation tomorrow, so I ll try and help out as much as possible.

    Great night fellas.

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    Beaver, atleast with the lines I had 8-2-1.

    Another great night. I'm at the firestation tomorrow, so I ll try and help out as much as possible.

    Great night fellas.

     
    beaverfan23
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    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 12:17 AM ET #92

    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)  L
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)  W
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)  W
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)  W
    Nova -1 (HFT)  W
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)  W
    UCF -1 (HDA)  PUSH
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)  W


    I got 6-1-1...some may have had a better line on UCF (I listed it as a Dog because it opened at +1) 

    Nice night again tonight boys!
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    Official Wednesday Plays:

    N. Ill +8.5 (RDN)  L
    Nebraska +3 (HDA)  W
    Morehead St +7.5 (HDT)  W
    Northeastern +2.5 (HDN)  W
    Nova -1 (HFT)  W
    Duquesne -5 (HFT)  W
    UCF -1 (HDA)  PUSH
    Oklahoma St +8 (RDT)  W


    I got 6-1-1...some may have had a better line on UCF (I listed it as a Dog because it opened at +1) 

    Nice night again tonight boys!
     
    baldguy_421
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    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 12:26 AM ET #93

    holy crap. i'm tailing tomorrow for sure.
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    holy crap. i'm tailing tomorrow for sure.
     
    flyerlax06
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    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 12:35 AM ET #94

    Good stuff today Beaver. 

    Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

    North Carolina -6.5 (RDT) Though its at 68% right now
    Washington +1 (HDT) Though its at 66% right now
    Oakland -1 (RDN)
    Louisiana Lafayette +3 (RDT)
    Canisius +2.5 (HDN)
    San Jose St. +7.5 (HDN)
    Northern Arizona +17 (RDT)

    Note: I use the Vegas open to determine the differential. The lines shown here are current from 5dimes as of 1230am EST. 

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    Good stuff today Beaver. 

    Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

    North Carolina -6.5 (RDT) Though its at 68% right now
    Washington +1 (HDT) Though its at 66% right now
    Oakland -1 (RDN)
    Louisiana Lafayette +3 (RDT)
    Canisius +2.5 (HDN)
    San Jose St. +7.5 (HDN)
    Northern Arizona +17 (RDT)

    Note: I use the Vegas open to determine the differential. The lines shown here are current from 5dimes as of 1230am EST. 

     
    Upside
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    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 5:25 AM ET #95

    Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

    Good stuff today Beaver. 

    Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

    North Carolina -6.5 (RDT) Though its at 68% right now
    Washington +1 (HDT) Though its at 66% right now
    Oakland -1 (RDN)
    Louisiana Lafayette +3 (RDT)
    Canisius +2.5 (HDN)
    San Jose St. +7.5 (HDN)
    Northern Arizona +17 (RDT)

    Note: I use the Vegas open to determine the differential. The lines shown here are current from 5dimes as of 1230am EST. 

    Beaver , I think has been using bookmaker opening lines and it does makes a difference but good work bro and thx ..
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

    Good stuff today Beaver. 

    Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

    North Carolina -6.5 (RDT) Though its at 68% right now
    Washington +1 (HDT) Though its at 66% right now
    Oakland -1 (RDN)
    Louisiana Lafayette +3 (RDT)
    Canisius +2.5 (HDN)
    San Jose St. +7.5 (HDN)
    Northern Arizona +17 (RDT)

    Note: I use the Vegas open to determine the differential. The lines shown here are current from 5dimes as of 1230am EST. 

    Beaver , I think has been using bookmaker opening lines and it does makes a difference but good work bro and thx ..
     
    Upside
    Upside
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    Posts: 8003
    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 5:27 AM ET #96

    Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

    Beaver , I think has been using bookmaker opening lines and it does makes a difference but good work bro and thx ..
    or is it betonline .. I used bookmaker with 7-1 results last night ..
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    Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

    Beaver , I think has been using bookmaker opening lines and it does makes a difference but good work bro and thx ..
    or is it betonline .. I used bookmaker with 7-1 results last night ..
     
    fademenow77
    fademenow77
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    Posts: 25
    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 6:46 AM ET #97

    Unless I'm missing something, and unfortunately, I've had to be away for a few days so congrats to all of you kickin ass the last few days but it also looks like Wash state is a qualifier or maybe I missed something

    Washington State +1  KP+4  (3)  HD
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    Unless I'm missing something, and unfortunately, I've had to be away for a few days so congrats to all of you kickin ass the last few days but it also looks like Wash state is a qualifier or maybe I missed something

    Washington State +1  KP+4  (3)  HD
     
    flyerlax06
    flyerlax06
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    Posts: 210
    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 8:58 AM ET #98

    Upside: I used BetOnline lines for the opening lines but I listed what the current line is from 5dimes. The 5dimes line has nothing to do with determining if it's a system play. 

    Fade: you're correct. Kenpom changed that after the games last night. When I did my initial calculation around midnight he had Stanford by 3 so the difference was only 2 and wasn't a play. I'll be checking all lines again today with the kenpom updates
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    Upside: I used BetOnline lines for the opening lines but I listed what the current line is from 5dimes. The 5dimes line has nothing to do with determining if it's a system play. 

    Fade: you're correct. Kenpom changed that after the games last night. When I did my initial calculation around midnight he had Stanford by 3 so the difference was only 2 and wasn't a play. I'll be checking all lines again today with the kenpom updates
     
    beaverfan23
    beaverfan23
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    Posts: 1545
    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 11:47 AM ET #99

    Official Thursday Plays:

    NCGreen -1 (HFA)
    UL Laf +3 (RDT)
    Canisius +2.5 (HDT)
    N.Az +16 (RDT)
    Oakland -2 (RFN)
    Wash St -1 (HDA)
    San Jose +7.5 (RDT)

    65% ruled out UNC and Washington.  NCGreen is a 2 pt difference, but the line is moving "away" so I am going to include it.

    Did I miss anything?
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    Official Thursday Plays:

    NCGreen -1 (HFA)
    UL Laf +3 (RDT)
    Canisius +2.5 (HDT)
    N.Az +16 (RDT)
    Oakland -2 (RFN)
    Wash St -1 (HDA)
    San Jose +7.5 (RDT)

    65% ruled out UNC and Washington.  NCGreen is a 2 pt difference, but the line is moving "away" so I am going to include it.

    Did I miss anything?
     
     
    baldguy_421
    baldguy_421
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    Joined: Feb, 2011
    Posts: 191
    Posted: Jan. 19, 2012 - 11:54 AM ET #100

    I'll be on all of these. What would the system say about my tease?

    Middle Tennessee St -7.5 College of Charleston + 15.5 San Fransisco College +22.5  for 1 unit.

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    I'll be on all of these. What would the system say about my tease?

    Middle Tennessee St -7.5 College of Charleston + 15.5 San Fransisco College +22.5  for 1 unit.

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