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Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

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Participants:

Posts: 377

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 4:44 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by ac_bum:

I LOOK AT THAT PLAY LAST NIGHT

I DONT KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THIS MANS SYSTEM

THIS PLAY JUST STUCK OUT AT ME

IM ON THE DEMONS 1ST 1/2 +5

LETS SEE IF THE GODS ARE NEAR CHI TOWN TONIGHT

Love it AC...

dawgsrock

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2003

Posts: 2098

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 4:54 PM ET #52

BJaRz

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2410

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 5:48 PM ET #53

TommyGunner

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 68

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 6:00 PM ET #54

I think the hard thing for some to comprehend (as well as myself @ first) is why you choose to side w/ line openings (Vegas) rather than Kenpom b/c many regard Kenpom as a great site for information. This is HIS SYSTEM and you have to respect it because he has a plan.

trabs9

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 92

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 6:11 PM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

BTW, simply just fading KenPom has been hitting at a near 60% clip so far this season. Logically, that seems expected since he needs enough data to precisely predict but usually, he's not this far off.

Knew that was going to happen after he started charging.

This is not true.

KenPom against the spread is 48.72% or 381-401 so far in 2011-12.

KenPom against the spread for 2010-11 was 50.40%

This is generally were these prediction models fall, usually between 47.5% to 52.5% per year.

indiana49er

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 84

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 6:16 PM ET #56

This is the crazy part about playing a system, I don't like either of these plays, but like the Maryland play, yet I am betting on Depaul and Michigan, and laying off Terps because I believe in fthis system. GL to all, lets get some money.

indiana49er

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 84

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 6:40 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

This is not true.

KenPom against the spread is 48.72% or 381-401 so far in 2011-12.

KenPom against the spread for 2010-11 was 50.40%

This is generally were these prediction models fall, usually between 47.5% to 52.5% per year.

Well, they say that 87% of all stats are made up.

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 7:07 PM ET #58

Wed. Plays ... need a double check and 65 % check before betting ..

Duq - 5

Neb + 4 1/2

N ILL + 8 1/2

C Fla + 1

Tulsa - 6 1/2

Ind St + 5

Thats it guys .. I think ..

indiana49er

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 84

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 8:55 PM ET #59

Sweet, hit Michigan FG, and MSU for the 2nd half..

Let's go Depaul!!

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 8:58 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Wed. Plays ... need a double check and 65 % check before betting ..

Duq - 5

Neb + 4 1/2

N ILL + 8 1/2

C Fla + 1

Tulsa - 6 1/2

Ind St + 5

Thats it guys .. I think ..

Good Stuff, you know you ll have to double check the close ones cause KP updates about an hour after the last game. Usually the outcomes are much different at all but I have made this mistake before and missed a play that beaver had due to it.

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 9:00 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:

I think the hard thing for some to comprehend (as well as myself @ first) is why you choose to side w/ line openings (Vegas) rather than Kenpom b/c many regard Kenpom as a great site for information. This is HIS SYSTEM and you have to respect it because he has a plan.

Its a misconception that we all think KP is a false. I dont believe KP considers injuries in his formula. Heck I use the site, alot of great statistics on there.

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 9:00 PM ET #62

Upside, thats aren't not are in my above comment.

SINGTO

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 15

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 9:02 PM ET #63

Depaul always fucked me up. u r right Beaver, Depaul is our nemesis

indiana49er

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 84

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 9:07 PM ET #64

Good work Beaver, Depaul pulled through for once

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 9:21 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by indiana49er:

Good work Beaver, Depaul pulled through for once

I loved the Michigan play, hated the Depaul play. I did make a small play on Depaul. I ll be damn they finally came through.

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 9:42 PM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

Sounds good bro keep us informed .. Thx

trabs9

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 92

Posted: Jan. 17, 2012 - 10:00 PM ET #67

Kelly Criterion Method
Tonight: 2-0 +69
Since 1/13/2012: 61% or 16-11
Total: +194.20

Week 9 Inputs
Starting bankroll: 500.00
Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 42
Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57.4% or53
Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 59.5% or 75
Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 60.2% or 82
Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 52.8% or 4
Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 53.9% or 16
Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 54.5%% or 22
Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55.5% or 33

Note, I left the starting bankroll input at 500.00 for week 9. I'm going to wait for a full week to change this input, so all inputs will be refreshed at the start of week 10.

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 12:42 AM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Wed. Plays ... need a double check and 65 % check before betting ..

Duq - 5

Neb + 4 1/2

N ILL + 8 1/2

C Fla + 1

Tulsa - 6 1/2

Ind St + 5

Thats it guys .. I think ..

I checked before going to bed, I double check in the am incase I didnt give KP time to update. I have everything above except Ind. St.

Ind St opened +5.5/ KP +8 (no play)

Plays I seen....

Morehead St O +7/ KP +10

Northeastern O +2.5/ KP +6

N. Ill O +8.5/ KP +12

Neb O +5/ KP +10

Duq O -5.5/ KP -2

Tulsa O -7.5/ KP -3

Wyoming +1/ KP -2

UCF +1.5/ KP +4

Ofcourse too early for the 65% and I dont know if KP has updated. I ll double check in the am. Please double check my findings ofcourse.

flyerlax06

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 210

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 12:54 AM ET #69

Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

Villanova +1 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Central Florida +1 (Home, Dog, Away)

Duquesne -4.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)

Nebraska +4.5 (Home, Dog, Away)

Tulsa -7 (Home, Fave, Toward) -currently at 69%

Oklahoma St. +8 (Road, Dog, Toward) - I use Vegas line to determine level

Northeastern +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Morehead St. +9 (Home, Dog, None)

Northern Illinois +8 (Road, Dog, Away)

flyerlax06

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 210

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 1:03 AM ET #70

*Note that I used Vegas lines to determine the level for differential. The lines I listed are the ones that are current lines on 5dimes.

Check the open on the Nova game. I see Nova -1.5 and KP has Seton Hall -1. The 2.5 point difference is good for a play on a 0-4 differential.

Check the open on the Wyoming game. I see Wyoming -1 and KP has Wyoming -2. So the 1 point difference is not enough for a play.

CalifDreamin

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5598

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 3:28 AM ET #71

Nice work

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 6:04 AM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

I checked before going to bed, I double check in the am incase I didnt give KP time to update. I have everything above except Ind. St.

Ind St opened +5.5/ KP +8 (no play)

Plays I seen....

Morehead St O +7/ KP +10

Northeastern O +2.5/ KP +6

N. Ill O +8.5/ KP +12

Neb O +5/ KP +10

Duq O -5.5/ KP -2

Tulsa O -7.5/ KP -3

Wyoming +1/ KP -2

UCF +1.5/ KP +4

Ofcourse too early for the 65% and I dont know if KP has updated. I ll double check in the am. Please double check my findings ofcourse.

Off to work .. I will check it out around 4 Cent time .. Thx bro

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 10:52 AM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Check the open on the Wyoming game. I see Wyoming -1 and KP has Wyoming -2. So the 1 point difference is not enough for a play.

I had it marked to recheck, I read it wrong for sure. Wyom did open at -1. I just plain forgot to copy the vill/Okie state plays down.

stiffler1705

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 1280

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 10:54 AM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

Villanova +1 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Central Florida +1 (Home, Dog, Away)

Duquesne -4.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)

Nebraska +4.5 (Home, Dog, Away)

Tulsa -7 (Home, Fave, Toward) -currently at 69%

Oklahoma St. +8 (Road, Dog, Toward)

Northeastern +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Morehead St. +9 (Home, Dog, None)

Northern Illinois +8 (Road, Dog, Away)

Same list for me. (Thats why we double check, and then hopefully beaverfan will have a couple good lists to check off his, Thanks Flyer)

Tulsa is a no play its still at 67%.

sscott999

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 1090

Posted: Jan. 18, 2012 - 12:35 PM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by sscott999:

Here's my technique for breaking out the KP spreads. Very helpful for big days like Saturday.

I use Firefox and I know there is some difference in how Firefox deals with copied txt vs IE. But this may work in IE as well.

1) Highlight and copy the KP Fanmatch table.

2) When you Paste to Excel, you have to select Paste Special - Unicode Text. This will break out the data in columns. At this point you should see the Prediction columnin column C. If you DON'T pick Unicode Text, you will get a long string of text in a single cell.

3) The key to breaking out the numbers is the "-" between the scores. Clear out columns D, E, F, and G because this is where you will be adding formulas.

4) In column D enter the following formula (asuuming you are on row #4): =FIND("-",C4,1)-2, this locates the "-" then backs up 2 spaces to identify the first digit of the score prediction. The result will be a number like 16 or something meaning its the 16th character in the string.

5) In column E enter this formula:=MID(C4,D4,2), this returns the predicted score of the winning team.

6) In coumn F enter this formula: =MID(C4,D4+3,2), this returns the predicted score of the losing team.

7) In column G enter: =F4-E4, this gives you the KP line for KP's favored team.

A this point you can sort the data from column C through G, print it out and quickly look up KP lines on all favorites as you go through the opening lines.

This should save a lot of time on big play days and avoid calculation errors. Just make sure you watch for flips between the Fave and the Dog between KP and the opening line.

One update to this. I verified that if you are using IE rather than Firefox and you are using a newer version of Excel like 2010 or later, you DO NOT have to use Paste Special - Unicode Text. You can just directly paste with Ctrl-V and it will paste in with the appropriate columns.

Hope this has helped everyone. Lots of good analysis going on here.

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