Posted:
#926
Looks like Cal Poly is switching up their starting line-up for tonight's game after 3 straight losses. Not really sure how it will effect the game, opinions appreciated
2012 Kempom System
Posted:
#927
Quote Originally Posted by meandean33:
Looks like Cal Poly is switching up their starting line-up for tonight's game after 3 straight losses. Not really sure how it will effect the game, opinions appreciated
Sounds like a desperation mode. If you haven't found the best players to field the court then you are in trouble this late in the season.Looks like Cal Poly is switching up their starting line-up for tonight's game after 3 straight losses. Not really sure how it will effect the game, opinions appreciated
Posted:
#928
Quote Originally Posted by meandean33:
Looks like Cal Poly is switching up their starting line-up for tonight's game after 3 straight losses. Not really sure how it will effect the game, opinions appreciated
Looks like Cal Poly is switching up their starting line-up for tonight's game after 3 straight losses. Not really sure how it will effect the game, opinions appreciated
I never feel great about any lineup or strategic changes this late in the season but does sound like a good idea. You have to remember we are concerned with wins and losses (cal poly has lost three in a row), we are worried about whether they will cover or not (cal poly is 0-8 ats since late January while Davis is 7-1 ATS in the same time frame).
To me, this is all about Davis and what type of effort we get from them in this "lost" season. Although they are 1-13 on the road, they have covered the last three on the road. Coming off the emotional senior night win against Fullerton, will we get their best effort on this last two game road trip when they literally have nothing to play for? Its a one-unit play for me as it fits the system but nothing more than that.
Posted:
#931
UC Davis line looks way to high for me. Smells fishy.... Am I wrong?
1) UC Davis only lost by 2 at home to Poly.
2) UC Davis playing best basketball as of late. Winners 4 of 6.
3) Huge upset win over Fullerton. Let down tonight?
4) Poly losing three straight and not playing well at all.
Don't understand the 15.5 line..... someone please make sense of this.......I don't know the teams well enough to know if this line makes sense.
1) UC Davis only lost by 2 at home to Poly.
2) UC Davis playing best basketball as of late. Winners 4 of 6.
3) Huge upset win over Fullerton. Let down tonight?
4) Poly losing three straight and not playing well at all.
Don't understand the 15.5 line..... someone please make sense of this.......I don't know the teams well enough to know if this line makes sense.
Posted:
#932
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
I never feel great about any lineup or strategic changes this late in the season but does sound like a good idea. You have to remember we are concerned with wins and losses (cal poly has lost three in a row), we are worried about whether they will cover or not (cal poly is 0-8 ats since late January while Davis is 7-1 ATS in the same time frame).
To me, this is all about Davis and what type of effort we get from them in this "lost" season. Although they are 1-13 on the road, they have covered the last three on the road. Coming off the emotional senior night win against Fullerton, will we get their best effort on this last two game road trip when they literally have nothing to play for? Its a one-unit play for me as it fits the system but nothing more than that.
I never feel great about any lineup or strategic changes this late in the season but does sound like a good idea. You have to remember we are concerned with wins and losses (cal poly has lost three in a row), we are worried about whether they will cover or not (cal poly is 0-8 ats since late January while Davis is 7-1 ATS in the same time frame).
To me, this is all about Davis and what type of effort we get from them in this "lost" season. Although they are 1-13 on the road, they have covered the last three on the road. Coming off the emotional senior night win against Fullerton, will we get their best effort on this last two game road trip when they literally have nothing to play for? Its a one-unit play for me as it fits the system but nothing more than that.
this is spot on. Thanks Kine. BOL in your plays tonight.
Posted:
#934
Not trying to further clutter this thread with 2nd guessing of the system and its plays, but as you said Davis has covered 7 of 8 while Poly has dropped 8 in a row ATS. Being as the strength of this system seems to be betting on teams no one wants to bet on wouldn't we as kenpom system followers prefer our underdogs to be on a rough streak ATS vs covering often. Just from reading your justifications behind the system its saying we want to bet on the teams who have burned people in the past. From my personal experience gamblers have a short memory and if anyone has bet either of these teams the past month it seems they will likely be more happy backing the dog in this one. Just my two sense, I will likely sit this one out, but overall love the system and thank you for bringing it to my attention 
Posted:
#935
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
I never feel great about any lineup or strategic changes this late in the season but does sound like a good idea. You have to remember we are concerned with wins and losses (cal poly has lost three in a row), we are worried about whether they will cover or not (cal poly is 0-8 ats since late January while Davis is 7-1 ATS in the same time frame).
To me, this is all about Davis and what type of effort we get from them in this "lost" season. Although they are 1-13 on the road, they have covered the last three on the road. Coming off the emotional senior night win against Fullerton, will we get their best effort on this last two game road trip when they literally have nothing to play for? Its a one-unit play for me as it fits the system but nothing more than that.
I never feel great about any lineup or strategic changes this late in the season but does sound like a good idea. You have to remember we are concerned with wins and losses (cal poly has lost three in a row), we are worried about whether they will cover or not (cal poly is 0-8 ats since late January while Davis is 7-1 ATS in the same time frame).
To me, this is all about Davis and what type of effort we get from them in this "lost" season. Although they are 1-13 on the road, they have covered the last three on the road. Coming off the emotional senior night win against Fullerton, will we get their best effort on this last two game road trip when they literally have nothing to play for? Its a one-unit play for me as it fits the system but nothing more than that.
Kine, I'm on UCD to win the game outright; the players have come around to Jim Les' system, their perimeter D is much improved, and, after so many straight losses, to the players this is a brand new season they just don't want to end. It's ugly to lose so many games in a row. Motivation won't be a factor in this one. These kids actually believe they can win this game. Just one more thing: on this date, UC Davis is just flat better than Cal Poly, period.
Posted:
#936
Quote Originally Posted by daniellem:
Kine, been following system, thank you........just curious, have you kept any records of the system plays winning SU, and if they were +/- on the ML?
Kine, been following system, thank you........just curious, have you kept any records of the system plays winning SU, and if they were +/- on the ML?
Of course all the system plays that won straight up are big +juice on the moneyline and a continual theme these three years is people either playing the moneyline (perfectly fine and probably a good idea) or atleast tracking it and it has won plenty of cash all three seasons. It just isn't personally how I bet or how I try to win money for numerous reasons but it has been a moneymaker and we have actually had a higher percentage of straight up winners this year than the previous two seasons as well so it definitely something to look at and consider moving forward.
Posted:
#938
Quote Originally Posted by MadeMan4:
UC Davis line looks way to high for me. Smells fishy.... Am I wrong?
1) UC Davis only lost by 2 at home to Poly.
2) UC Davis playing best basketball as of late. Winners 4 of 6.
3) Huge upset win over Fullerton. Let down tonight?
4) Poly losing three straight and not playing well at all.
Don't understand the 15.5 line..... someone please make sense of this.......I don't know the teams well enough to know if this line makes sense.
UC Davis line looks way to high for me. Smells fishy.... Am I wrong?
1) UC Davis only lost by 2 at home to Poly.
2) UC Davis playing best basketball as of late. Winners 4 of 6.
3) Huge upset win over Fullerton. Let down tonight?
4) Poly losing three straight and not playing well at all.
Don't understand the 15.5 line..... someone please make sense of this.......I don't know the teams well enough to know if this line makes sense.
This comes up all the time. The line isn't made by using their last matchup or recent form - its a statistical formula based off the entire season and slightly supplemented with the elements you mentioned in the post. Every day someone comments on a line that looks "off" based on how the teams played the first time (team a beat team b by 15 points, how are they now -3 when they play again) and inevitably, team b thrashed team a much to the amazement of the unstudied observer. Kenpom uses similar simulations, projections, Pyth theorems to project winners and losers. Kenpom projects a 15 point win based on the statistical factors. Also remember that sportsbooks don't want to be left "unprotected" on these types of games so they go with the projections and let the money sway the lines one way or the other. Given how Cal Poly played at the beginning and middle of the season and given how unbelievably awful Cal Davis has been this year, the number is fair and the fact that it is still hovering around 15.5 is a decent indication of that. Its also a decent indication that most bettors have decided that they are "touching" one or both of these teams and its a very nice "under the radar" game for people who are paying attention and who don't get sucked into betting the "main" game of the night (i.e. Illinois/Michigan and the like).
Posted:
#939
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Of course all the system plays that won straight up are big +juice on the moneyline and a continual theme these three years is people either playing the moneyline (perfectly fine and probably a good idea) or atleast tracking it and it has won plenty of cash all three seasons. It just isn't personally how I bet or how I try to win money for numerous reasons but it has been a moneymaker and we have actually had a higher percentage of straight up winners this year than the previous two seasons as well so it definitely something to look at and consider moving forward.
Of course all the system plays that won straight up are big +juice on the moneyline and a continual theme these three years is people either playing the moneyline (perfectly fine and probably a good idea) or atleast tracking it and it has won plenty of cash all three seasons. It just isn't personally how I bet or how I try to win money for numerous reasons but it has been a moneymaker and we have actually had a higher percentage of straight up winners this year than the previous two seasons as well so it definitely something to look at and consider moving forward.
27 years ago, when I first met Howard Schwartz (owner, Gamblers Book Club, Las Vegas), Howard gave me this one sage piece of advice: just pick winners. That's it. Forget the number one way or the other, if one can pick who will win the game everything else will take care of itself. Throughout the years, that advice has served me well and provided me a living.
Posted:
#940
Quote Originally Posted by gollum:
Not trying to further clutter this thread with 2nd guessing of the system and its plays, but as you said Davis has covered 7 of 8 while Poly has dropped 8 in a row ATS. Being as the strength of this system seems to be betting on teams no one wants to bet on wouldn't we as kenpom system followers prefer our underdogs to be on a rough streak ATS vs covering often. Just from reading your justifications behind the system its saying we want to bet on the teams who have burned people in the past. From my personal experience gamblers have a short memory and if anyone has bet either of these teams the past month it seems they will likely be more happy backing the dog in this one. Just my two sense, I will likely sit this one out, but overall love the system and thank you for bringing it to my attention
Not trying to further clutter this thread with 2nd guessing of the system and its plays, but as you said Davis has covered 7 of 8 while Poly has dropped 8 in a row ATS. Being as the strength of this system seems to be betting on teams no one wants to bet on wouldn't we as kenpom system followers prefer our underdogs to be on a rough streak ATS vs covering often. Just from reading your justifications behind the system its saying we want to bet on the teams who have burned people in the past. From my personal experience gamblers have a short memory and if anyone has bet either of these teams the past month it seems they will likely be more happy backing the dog in this one. Just my two sense, I will likely sit this one out, but overall love the system and thank you for bringing it to my attention
Totally agree, but it would be literally impossible to find one human that has been "riding" Cal Davis lately. They started the season 4-14 ATS - I've literally not read one thread, comment, post or anything about Davis on this entire site for almost three months. That is one of the points of the system. Even if Davis is covering like a beast, if noone is betting them, the books don't care. In fact, in the first few Davis covers of this streak, the money flooded in on fading Davis and books did very well every time Davis covered. If no one is making an adjustment in backing Davis, why do the books need to adjust the line? Until the very last game, Marist lines were getting "bigger" not "smaller" despite their ats run. Same with Citadel, the lines were getting slightly bigger or staying the same despite their ats run. EMU lines aren't moving at all despite their ats run, mainly because, at this point of the system, bettors are ignoring these team and/or games or still looking for reason to "fade" what they consider to be "sucky" teams.
Posted:
#941
Quote Originally Posted by trim88:
27 years ago, when I first met Howard Schwartz (owner, Gamblers Book Club, Las Vegas), Howard gave me this one sage piece of advice: just pick winners. That's it. Forget the number one way or the other, if one can pick who will win the game everything else will take care of itself. Throughout the years, that advice has served me well and provided me a living.
Love that! Completely agree and feel that there are some other sports (ncaa football for one) that people would be well served to keep that in mind as well.
Posted:
#942
Quote Originally Posted by trim88:
Kine, I'm on UCD to win the game outright; the players have come around to Jim Les' system, their perimeter D is much improved, and, after so many straight losses, to the players this is a brand new season they just don't want to end. It's ugly to lose so many games in a row. Motivation won't be a factor in this one. These kids actually believe they can win this game. Just one more thing: on this date, UC Davis is just flat better than Cal Poly, period.
I'm not nearly as confident as you are as I can see some ways that Davis struggles to score and could fall behind early, but I agree this isn't your typical game where the home team is waiting to POUND a perceived weaker opponent. Cal Poly just wants to "win" period and will take any type of W at the moment (as shown by the lineup shuffle etc.). Its your garden variety 1-unit play for me but I can see where people could see going higher.
But we must all laugh at the craziness of this thread as we are all discussing how "BIG" we are going on 5 win, 23 loss Kenpom ranked #316 out of 345 teams Cal Davis! That is literally exactly what this thread should be about. Can you imagine someone that hasn't read this thread and see a thread on the front page with the title CAL DAVIS BIG TONIGHT. They would get laughed off the front page in an instant. Don't know if this will cover or not tonight but it is certainly the "theory of opposites" I discussed last week!
Posted:
#944
I locked in Davis +15.5 on 5dimes
Others I'm still considering:
Utah +17 (situational play)
Wash St +10 (situational play)
USC +7 (I will now list the teams Wash has beating by 7 or more on the road this season: ______)
Michigan +2 (someone I trust on this game so now I'm looking)
Louisiana Tech +6 (road splits are bad but this is an improving team)
San Diego -3.5 (hoping it ticks back to 3)
NEW CONSIDERATION: Portland +9 (San Fran has played three straight emotionally hard fought games at home in the last two weeks - lost by 1 to BYU, won by 1 against Gonzaga, lost at the very end to St Mary's. Now we are at a neutral court (San Fran splits are very good at home) and now they play a MUCH WEAKER opponent. Even though its the conference tournament, it is human nature to let down in this spot and I'm not sure what type of energy level they will have. They beat Portland by 34 at home and then by 1 on the road. Of course Portland just played a tough game last night so it all could be moot already or you might look at that game and think that San Fran is the play. Just saying it is something to look at, that is all.
Others I'm still considering:
Utah +17 (situational play)
Wash St +10 (situational play)
USC +7 (I will now list the teams Wash has beating by 7 or more on the road this season: ______)
Michigan +2 (someone I trust on this game so now I'm looking)
Louisiana Tech +6 (road splits are bad but this is an improving team)
San Diego -3.5 (hoping it ticks back to 3)
NEW CONSIDERATION: Portland +9 (San Fran has played three straight emotionally hard fought games at home in the last two weeks - lost by 1 to BYU, won by 1 against Gonzaga, lost at the very end to St Mary's. Now we are at a neutral court (San Fran splits are very good at home) and now they play a MUCH WEAKER opponent. Even though its the conference tournament, it is human nature to let down in this spot and I'm not sure what type of energy level they will have. They beat Portland by 34 at home and then by 1 on the road. Of course Portland just played a tough game last night so it all could be moot already or you might look at that game and think that San Fran is the play. Just saying it is something to look at, that is all.
Posted:
#945
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
I locked in Davis +15.5 on 5dimes
Others I'm still considering:
Utah +17 (situational play)
Wash St +10 (situational play)
USC +7 (I will now list the teams Wash has beating by 7 or more on the road this season: ______)
Michigan +2 (someone I trust on this game so now I'm looking)
Louisiana Tech +6 (road splits are bad but this is an improving team)
San Diego -3.5 (hoping it ticks back to 3)
NEW CONSIDERATION: Portland +9 (San Fran has played three straight emotionally hard fought games at home in the last two weeks - lost by 1 to BYU, won by 1 against Gonzaga, lost at the very end to St Mary's. Now we are at a neutral court (San Fran splits are very good at home) and now they play a MUCH WEAKER opponent. Even though its the conference tournament, it is human nature to let down in this spot and I'm not sure what type of energy level they will have. They beat Portland by 34 at home and then by 1 on the road. Of course Portland just played a tough game last night so it all could be moot already or you might look at that game and think that San Fran is the play. Just saying it is something to look at, that is all.
I locked in Davis +15.5 on 5dimes
Others I'm still considering:
Utah +17 (situational play)
Wash St +10 (situational play)
USC +7 (I will now list the teams Wash has beating by 7 or more on the road this season: ______)
Michigan +2 (someone I trust on this game so now I'm looking)
Louisiana Tech +6 (road splits are bad but this is an improving team)
San Diego -3.5 (hoping it ticks back to 3)
NEW CONSIDERATION: Portland +9 (San Fran has played three straight emotionally hard fought games at home in the last two weeks - lost by 1 to BYU, won by 1 against Gonzaga, lost at the very end to St Mary's. Now we are at a neutral court (San Fran splits are very good at home) and now they play a MUCH WEAKER opponent. Even though its the conference tournament, it is human nature to let down in this spot and I'm not sure what type of energy level they will have. They beat Portland by 34 at home and then by 1 on the road. Of course Portland just played a tough game last night so it all could be moot already or you might look at that game and think that San Fran is the play. Just saying it is something to look at, that is all.
KP, Did I see you snuck in another winner on E Michigan last night? 
nice!
Posted:
#946
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
I'm not nearly as confident as you are as I can see some ways that Davis struggles to score and could fall behind early, but I agree this isn't your typical game where the home team is waiting to POUND a perceived weaker opponent. Cal Poly just wants to "win" period and will take any type of W at the moment (as shown by the lineup shuffle etc.). Its your garden variety 1-unit play for me but I can see where people could see going higher.
But we must all laugh at the craziness of this thread as we are all discussing how "BIG" we are going on 5 win, 23 loss Kenpom ranked #316 out of 345 teams Cal Davis! That is literally exactly what this thread should be about. Can you imagine someone that hasn't read this thread and see a thread on the front page with the title CAL DAVIS BIG TONIGHT. They would get laughed off the front page in an instant. Don't know if this will cover or not tonight but it is certainly the "theory of opposites" I discussed last week!
I'm not nearly as confident as you are as I can see some ways that Davis struggles to score and could fall behind early, but I agree this isn't your typical game where the home team is waiting to POUND a perceived weaker opponent. Cal Poly just wants to "win" period and will take any type of W at the moment (as shown by the lineup shuffle etc.). Its your garden variety 1-unit play for me but I can see where people could see going higher.
But we must all laugh at the craziness of this thread as we are all discussing how "BIG" we are going on 5 win, 23 loss Kenpom ranked #316 out of 345 teams Cal Davis! That is literally exactly what this thread should be about. Can you imagine someone that hasn't read this thread and see a thread on the front page with the title CAL DAVIS BIG TONIGHT. They would get laughed off the front page in an instant. Don't know if this will cover or not tonight but it is certainly the "theory of opposites" I discussed last week!
Oh, gawd!...That's just about what I wrote in a covers headline! I rarely post on covers...pure serendipity. UCD will most likely lose by 30, but I'm playing with very short house money and coming of two ML Davis wins...full disclosure: I follow the Big West closely; it's in my neighborhood.
Posted:
#947
Probably going to ask the so called experts this question also...on Vegas Sports Day, but thought I would ask Kine (are forum expert) also...
When is the best time to lock in a play...should one...
1) Jump on the opening line hoping they don't lose value
2) Wait and hope to get value by line movement and at the same time risk losing value
Most will say the closing line is more accurate and thus one would expect to have less value...however I have been burned many times (especially this NBA season) by jumping on the opening line only to be burned by injuries to players that aren't announced untill game time...
Thanks, in advance, for your respone...
PB.
Posted:
#949
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
Probably going to ask the so called experts this question also...on Vegas Sports Day, but thought I would ask Kine (are forum expert) also...
Probably going to ask the so called experts this question also...on Vegas Sports Day, but thought I would ask Kine (are forum expert) also...
When is the best time to lock in a play...should one...
1) Jump on the opening line hoping they don't lose value
2) Wait and hope to get value by line movement and at the same time risk losing value
Most will say the closing line is more accurate and thus one would expect to have less value...however I have been burned many times (especially this NBA season) by jumping on the opening line only to be burned by injuries to players that aren't announced untill game time...
Thanks, in advance, for your respone...
PB.
I say take the opening line UNLESS you know that you are making a play that will be unpopular for one reason or another. I can't think of a great example right now, but you usually know them when you see them.
As for the injuries, that should be a 50/50 proposition as far as one team or the other announcing something last minute. The only exception being that if you betting against steam (ie. a line moving quickly in one direction, in this case your favor), there may already be information out there on an injury or lineup change, and you just don't know it yet. That's never good.
But for example, last night I locked in these plays (below) and currently I'm sitting with a 1/2 point to a point advantage over the current lines. That's a big plus over the long run.
Utah +17.5
UC Davis +15.5
Louisiana Tech +6
Idaho +3
Posted:
#950
I agree...always try to make my plays as soon as lines come out...
However it really makes you feel like sh#t when you are on the wrong side of the injury issue...example when Boston played Dallas just before the All Star break and sat Rondo, Garnett, and someone else...here I am sitting with a Boston play that was worthless...but a good play at the time I made the wager...
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