Posted:
#851
Another damn system loss for Idaho St. Unbelievable, as I stated before system started too late this year.
2012 Kempom System
Posted:
#858
Quote Originally Posted by redmenrule:
Another damn system loss for Idaho St. Unbelievable, as I stated before system started too late this year.
Another damn system loss for Idaho St. Unbelievable, as I stated before system started too late this year. soooooooo...... note for next year start it when YOU want to.... I started the previous saturday rather than the sunday and picked up an extra 3 wins......
don't get so bent out of shape.... obviously no system is gonna be a consistent 80%+ clip... cmon that's unrealistic.... but if it hits 65%+, that is money....
And Jez I wish i was playin the MLs as well.... since that first saturday, the system is 6-12
SU (+1380) if playing $100 units
Now that we all have the principles down, we can start when we please..... late in the season of course
keep your head up... good luck
Posted:
#863
System 1-1
Personal plays: 0-2
There are lots of days I'm aggregated with myself for just flat betting 1-unit on all my plays, then there are days like today where I'm relieved. Gotta be in it for the long haul and as I've stated before I bet a higher percentage of my bankroll per play. Those two losses dropped me under a "double up" for the season so as my bankroll increases my unit size goes up and when I lose and the bankroll shrinks so does the unit size. I'll expand more on this tomorrow:
System plays per 5dimes:
Eastern Michigan +9.5
Central Michigan +7.5
Northridge +13
Almost: Fordham +6
Also looking at: Tulsa +1.5
Toledo -5 (only because kenpom has this a 10-pt Toledo win)
Will look deeper at card if there is time tomorrow - good luck
Posted:
#864
Hi KP,
Much respect to you for all that you do... have been a silent follower untill now.... What would be your thoughts on LaSalle/Geo. Washington... I capped it at -4.5 for lasalle using kenpom numbers and Vegas opened it at -1.5.... Usually when there is this much discrepency with the vegas line, Makes me wonder what they know.....
Perhaps You could help and enlighten me.
Thanks in advance
Much respect to you for all that you do... have been a silent follower untill now.... What would be your thoughts on LaSalle/Geo. Washington... I capped it at -4.5 for lasalle using kenpom numbers and Vegas opened it at -1.5.... Usually when there is this much discrepency with the vegas line, Makes me wonder what they know.....
Perhaps You could help and enlighten me.
Thanks in advance
Posted:
#865
People, please don't complain in here. First off, nobody wants to hear it. Second off, complaining isn't going to turn your losing wager into a winner. Third off, once the wager is placed the outcome is completely out of your hands.
The system went 1-1 tonight, so you should have lost around 0.10 units. No big deal.
KP, keep workin' brother.
I also like that you mention how your BR (bankroll) increases, so does your unit size. I was interested to know what % of your BR is each unit.
Right now I'm running about 3% of my BR per bet.
Maximum 7.5% of BR in play per day.
Is that too much?
Thanks for all you do.
Posted:
#870
Let the complainers keep up there complaining. I enjoy reading the plays you like yourself. You give great analysis and that is what I want to read and learn from. Lots of tournaments around the corner so hopefully you will be able to discuss games that fall into this catagory. Appreciate your time and effort.
Posted:
#871
@CoverLane - well said all the way through. I'm riding it out and managing the risks. Far more at risk through my own stupid decisions that KP - love the feeling in the second half of having your team play like crap but only requiring a few breaks to get a cover...almost as good as your team blowing it out box to wire.
Lots of underdogs on the board tonight outside of the system. I went a bit crazy with Marquette (+2), Maryland(+18) and Umass(+11.5).
Marquette can run with anyone and even though Cincy has looked good, even on the road Marquette has held their own of late.
I think N. Carolina isn't looking to make a statement heading into the Duke game and just want a win. Look for them to hold back in H2 unless Maryland catches them looking forward...either way, 18 points is a lot.
Lastly, Temple has been too inconsistent to impress me enough to be a historically good program by a dozen.
Posted:
#873
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
System 1-1
System 1-1
Personal plays: 0-2
There are lots of days I'm aggregated with myself for just flat betting 1-unit on all my plays, then there are days like today where I'm relieved. Gotta be in it for the long haul and as I've stated before I bet a higher percentage of my bankroll per play. Those two losses dropped me under a "double up" for the season so as my bankroll increases my unit size goes up and when I lose and the bankroll shrinks so does the unit size. I'll expand more on this tomorrow:
System plays per 5dimes:
Eastern Michigan +9.5
Central Michigan +7.5
Northridge +13
Almost: Fordham +6
Also looking at: Tulsa +1.5
Toledo -5 (only because kenpom has this a 10-pt Toledo win)
Will look deeper at card if there is time tomorrow - good luck
Don't forget that you did wager 1.5 Units on Weber State...1 unit at 5...and a (1/2) unit more at 5.5...
Posted:
#874
One thing Im gonna keep an eye on...
One of the "angles" the system is based according to KP is playing against public perception, Thats why there was value on bad teams on the road getting > +6 pts vs not good teams at home..
well I didnt check it before yesterday, but maybe this system got too "public", let me explain..
Yesterdays system Idaho St. was a public favorite (wish contradicts the system) and lost, but N. Colorado was not favored by public (and won ats almost SU)
I know that to base premises based in one day sample is not valid, but I'm gonna keep eye on it from now on and keep record of it(not here).
Eg Today all 3 system plays are public favorite, also almost play (wrong conference) Army is public favorite while the other "almost" plays (Fordham, VA Milit, High Point) are not favored.
lets see how these develop..
GL
Rysuno
well I didnt check it before yesterday, but maybe this system got too "public", let me explain..
Yesterdays system Idaho St. was a public favorite (wish contradicts the system) and lost, but N. Colorado was not favored by public (and won ats almost SU)
I know that to base premises based in one day sample is not valid, but I'm gonna keep eye on it from now on and keep record of it(not here).
Eg Today all 3 system plays are public favorite, also almost play (wrong conference) Army is public favorite while the other "almost" plays (Fordham, VA Milit, High Point) are not favored.
lets see how these develop..
GL
Rysuno
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