Holy crap, we’re almost at the midway mark of the 2020 NFL season. By this point in the schedule, the NFL betting intel is growing richer by the snap and oddsmakers have a much deeper understanding of what makes teams tick.
Because of that you need a sure-fire NFL betting strategy: get the best number for your bet.
Locking in the best spread or total for your opinion is the only way to beat the bookies, so we share our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and which ones to bet later in NFL Week 7.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans: Bet Now
Boy I feel sorry for the Texans. After Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed in Tampa Bay this past weekend, Green Bay’s redemption tour rolls into Houston to take on a 1-5 home team. Books opened the Cheeseheads as field-goal favorites for this 1 p.m. ET Week 7 kickoff and it won’t be sticking around long.
The Texans just gave up 36 points in regulation to the Titans and have allowed four of their six opponents to crack the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard (Pittsburgh could only muster 28 points… pffffft!). While the offense does seem to be figuring something out since shedding the stink of Bill O’Brien’s play calling, it's walking into a shootout Sunday afternoon.
Since Rodgers took over as the No. 1 gunslinger in Green Bay (2008), the Packers have posted a 39-29-1 ATS mark (57 percent) coming off a loss. Yes, Sunday’s defeat to the Bucs was a bad one but it’s only giving us extra value on this short spread. Also, the Pack are back indoors Sunday, where they’ve averaged 38 points per game this season. I wonder if they've ever considered putting a roof on Lambeau? Nahhhhhhh.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+1.5): Bet Later
The Titans don’t get any respect. Maybe it’s sour grapes from their whole COVID-19 outbreak. Maybe it’s the bad taste leftover from Ryan Tannehill’s days in Miami. Whatever the case, Tennessee is catching the points at home hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 7 battle of undefeated teams.
There’s enough on either side of this spread to make a case for Pittsburgh or Tennessee, but if you are siding with the home team, you may want to wait this one out and see how many extra points you can grab before clicking submit on the Titans.
This line opened as low as Steelers -1 and is out there as high as -2. Tennessee needed a last-second drive to force overtime and secure the win versus Houston at home (albeit playing its second game in six days) but Pittsburgh’s convincing win over Cleveland will puff this one up – especially with the Steelers boasting a surplus of public support each and every week.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51): Bet Now
It’s the 2020 NFL season soooooo… you get a 50-point total! And you get a 50-point total! And YOU get a 50-point total! With scoring still at a record pace, oddsmakers are stuffing as much cushion as they can into these weekly totals until the universe balances itself out.
The Panthers-Saints Week 7 showdown opened with the total at 51 points and while there hasn’t been a hint of movement in the first few hours of action, I believe this is headed downward. The Saints have had a bye week to study up and tighten the bolts on a defense that still ranks sixth in DVOA at Football Outsiders. And while there’s a slim hope that Carolina will return RB Christian McCaffrey (most likely Week 8), the Panthers offense has slowed down after a fiery start to the season with efforts of 23 and 16 points the past two games.
Another thing to consider is how well New Orleans knows not only Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater (played for the Saints for two seasons) but also Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady (Saints offensive assistant for two years), who pretty much ripped pages out of the New Orleans playbook for his tenure at LSU and is running similar systems in Charlotte this year. If you’re on board with the Under, you'll want to get it sooner rather than later.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Under 56.5): Bet Later
This Over/Under opened as low as 55.5 at one select sportsbook and lasted less than a half-hour before action tacked on another point and the rest of the industry posted 56.5 for Lions at Falcons. And why not? Both teams love to score and hate to defend, ranked 28th and 30th in defensive DVOA (heading into Week 6).
But if you're zigging when everyone else is zagging on this total, wait and see how much higher the number climbs before jumping in on the Under. Detroit and Atlanta are each coming off an offensive outpouring in Week 6, with the Lions laying 34 points on the Jaguars and the Falcons flipping the Vikings for 40 points. That recency bias has built this lofty number.
We’ve seen these groups fall flat on their face at times this season. Atlanta scored just 16 points in back-to-back outings before Sunday’s explosion, and Detroit hadn’t cracked 30 points until this weekend’s run-in with lowly Jacksonville. These teams have faced some tall totals in past meetings and have gone just 2-4 O/U in their last six head-to-head encounters.
Where can I get the best odds on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
