Week 14 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash between the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Elks at Commonwealth Stadium.
These rivals faced off last week in Calgary, with the Elks winning 35-20, and my Stampeders vs. Elks predictions are betting on another explosive game from this Edmonton offense.
Here are my best free CFL picks for the Battle of Alberta on September 7.
Stampeders vs Elks prediction
My best bet
Elks team total Over 27.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Edmonton Elks lead the league in scoring at 29.0 points per game, with that number surging to 34.8 ppg over their last five contests.
That should lead to plenty of tallies against a Calgary Stampeders squad that ranks second-last in the CFL in scoring defense (29.5 ppg), with that number ticking up to 33.8 ppg on the road. Calgary's defense is last in the league in sacks (17) and second-last in takeaways (15) which has led to the Stamps allowing a league-worst 7.1 yards per play.
Regardless of who's been playing running back between Javon Leake, Kevin Brown, and Justin Rankin, the Elks have been running roughshod over foes. Edmonton leads the CFL with 5.4 yards per carry, while the Stampeders are dead-last in rushing yards allowed per game (108.2) and yards allowed per carry (6.3).
The Elks do have a bit of a quarterback controversy on their hands, but that's not necessarily a negative, with both McLeod Bethel-Thompson and Tre Ford capable of leading this attack. Bethel-Thompson started the season off under center, but after the Elks lost seven in a row, he was benched for Ford before Week 8.
The blazing-fast Ford looked terrific for a couple of starts but was injured in Week 10, so the Elks went back to MBT, who threw for 468 yards and three scores last week. If MBT struggles in any capacity, the Elks won't hesitate to put Ford in, which only makes it even more likely that Edmonton's offense keeps cooking.
Stampeders vs Elks same-game parlay (SGP)
Elks team total Over 27.5
Stampeders first half team total Under 10.5
Ishmael Hyman Under 38.5 receiving yards
The Stamps are benching Jake Maier for Logan Bonner, but I'm not convinced that will lead to offensive success against a vulnerable Edmonton defense.
Maier threw four picks last week and has been inconsistent all year, but has shown he can move the ball, while the 26-year-old Bonner is a mystery. Bonner struggled with accuracy in college, and he doesn't have the mobility to escape pressure behind a banged-up and struggling offensive line. That should lead to some hiccups from Calgary's offense in the first half.
Bonner replaced Maier on the final drive last week and completed 4 of 6 passes for 33 yards. He didn't attempt a single pass more than 10 yards downfield, and he didn't target Ishmael Hyman once. Hyman was a backup until Week 11, and at best, he'll be Calgary's fourth option at WR on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stampeders vs Elks odds
Stampeders vs Elks live odds
Stampeders vs Elks opening odds
- Spread: Calgary +2.5 | Edmonton -2.5
- Moneyline: Calgary +120 | Edmonton -140
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Stampeders vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on Edmonton, moving the line past that key number of 3 to -3.5.
- The Elks began the year 0-7 but have gone 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.
- The Stampeders have a 4-7 record and have gone just 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five.
- The Stamps have gone 0-5 on the road with an average scoring margin of -11.6 ppg.
Stampeders vs Elks trend
The Over is 5-1 in Edmonton's last six contests against teams with a losing record, and the Over has also cashed in four straight games for Calgary. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Elks.
Stampeders vs Elks game info
| Location: | Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Elks key injuries
Stampeders: D’Antne Demery LT (Questionable), Bryce Bell G (Questionable), Tre Roberson CB (Questionable), Zack Williams G (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out), B.J. Emmons RB (Out).
Elks: Tomas Jack-Kurdyla G (Out), Marcus Lewis DB (Out), Romeo McKnight DE (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Stampeders vs Elks weather
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