Week 10 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with the Toronto Argonauts hosting the Ottawa Redblacks.
The Argos will try to bounce back from their first loss of the year, but it won't be easy against a Redblacks squad that has been competitive since rookie Dustin Crum took over at quarterback.
CFL betting lines for this contest have seen plenty of movement after Argos QB Chad Kelly was injured last weekend. However, with Kelly now expected to start, Toronto is back to being a double-digit favorite.
Here are my best free Redblacks vs. Argonauts CFL picks and predictions for August 13.
Redblacks vs Argonauts best odds
Redblacks vs Argonauts picks and predictions
The Argos were held to just seven points in last week's loss to the Stampeders, but that was the first time this season they've been held below 30 points. A big reason for that poor performance on offense was the horrible play of backup QB Cameron Dukes, who replaced Chad Kelly early in the second quarter after Kelly had already thrown for 96 yards and a score.
After that game, Toronto head coach Ryan Dinwiddie mentioned that he might rest Kelly as a precautionary measure due to that injured ankle. However, with the MOP odds frontrunner moving around well in practice, he's been announced as the starter.
With Kelly under center, expect a bounce-back performance for the Argos attack against a Redblacks defense that surrenders a league-high 314.6 passing yards per game and ranks second-last in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.7), offensive touchdowns allowed (17), and opponent big plays (21).
Despite last week's anemic performance, the Argos have a balanced and explosive attack that leads the CFL in scoring (32.0 points per game) and is second in yards per play (7.0). However, the quick-strike nature of Toronto's offense also means that their defense is on the field for the most plays per game (58.6) in the league.
That should provide plenty of scoring opportunities for an Ottawa offense that has been much more productive with Dustin Crum at the helm. The 2021 MAC Most Valuable Player, Crum isn't the most polished passer but has a good arm and is an explosive runner, rushing for 360 yards and 8.8 yards per carry since taking over as Ottawa's QB in Week 5.
With the Argos attack poised for a rebound performance and the Redblacks offense looking dangerous with Crum, bet the Over 47.
My best bet: Over 47 (-110 at Sports Interaction)
Redblacks vs Argonauts same-game parlay
Over 47.5
Argonauts -10.5
Crum Over 61.5 rushing yards
Not only do I think that we see this game go Over the total, but I expect the Argos to get back to their winning ways and cover the spread against a Redblacks side that is vulnerable on defense.
That said, I'm also expecting the Ottawa offense to do its part and put up points on the board, and that starts with Crum under center. The Redblacks line has given up plenty of sacks this season, and will be missing star guard Drew Desjarlais.
The Argos get tons of pressure up the middle, which should result in Crum being flushed out of the pocket and relying on his legs. Crum was limited to 21 yards on four carries last week, but he had rushed for at least 63 yards in each of his previous four games.
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Redblacks vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread has seen a ton of movement. The line originally opened with the Argos as 10.5-point faves and went all the way down to -4.5 when it was reported that Kelly would sit out. After it became clear that Kelly would indeed get the start, the spread bounced back up to favor the Argos at -10.
The total has also seen tons of action, going as low as 41.5. But it is now sitting at 47 or 47.5, depending on the book.
Prior to last week's loss to the Stamps, Toronto had gone 8-0 straight up and against the spread in its last eight games. They've generally dominated opponents this year, boasting five wins by at least 12 points.
After starting the year 1-3 SU and ATS, the Redblacks beat the Bombers and Stamps in back-to-back contests before losing a pair of close contests in Weeks 8 and 9.
The Under also cashed in Ottawa's first four games this year but has gone 3-1 O/U with Crum as the starting QB.
Redblacks vs Argonauts trend to know
The RedBlacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus East Division opponents, while the Argos are 4-0 ATS in their previous four contests against division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Ottawa Redblacks vs. Toronto Argonauts.
Redblacks vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, August 13, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Argonauts key injuries
Ottawa Redblacks: Frankie Griffin OLB (Out), Drew Desjarlais G (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Tyrie Adams QB (Out), Blessman Ta'ala DL (Out), Tyson Vrede LB (Out), Money Hunter DB (Out), Devonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out).
Toronto Argonauts: Jared Brinkman DL (Out), Damonte Coxie WR (Doubtful), Adarius Pickett OLB (Questionable), Trevon Tate OT (Questionable), Henoc Muamba LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
