Week 15 in the CFL kicks off on Friday night with a clash between the Toronto Argonauts and BC Lions.
Both of these offenses have seen their passing games open up in recent weeks, and that has me betting the Over with my Argonauts vs. Lions predictions. Find out more in my CFL picks for this September 13 showdown.
Argonauts vs Lions prediction
My best bet
Over 52 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Rourke rejoined the BC Lions last month after a failed stint in the NFL, and while he was rusty in his first two games, he has completed 74.1% of his passes for 629 yards over the last two weeks. Although Rourke threw three picks in last week's 37-20 win against the Alouettes, two of them came off tipped or dropped passes.
Chad Kelly also struggled with turnovers last week, throwing four interceptions in the Toronto Argonauts 41-27 loss to the Redblacks. However, not all of those mistakes were his fault, and the driving rain in Ottawa didn’t help either.
Kelly has thrown for 320+ yards in three straight games since returning from his suspension, so it's clear that Toronto moves the ball significantly better with him under center. With an excellent running back in Ka'Deem Carey, a strong offensive line, and an explosive return game, this Argos offense should trend upwards.
Both defenses have also struggled through the air. The Lions rank last in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency (108.3) and second-last in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.91). Meanwhile, the Boatmen enter Week 15 second-last in opponent pass efficiency (103.9) and surrender the third-most yards per pass (8.67).
Expect big performances from both pivots and take the Over 52.
Argonauts vs Lions same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 52.5
William Stanback Under 79.5 rushing yards
Makai Polk Under 41.5 receiving yards
Although William Stanback has rushed for 85+ yards in five consecutive games, his prop number is a bit inflated for this matchup. Keep in mind that before this recent five-game stretch, Stanback had gone below this number in six of his first eight games of the year.
The Argos have been stingy versus the run, limiting foes to 4.6 yards per carry while allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (76.4) in the CFL. They held Stanback to 35 yards on 11 carries in the season opener, so I'm expecting the Leos to attack their leaky secondary instead.
Davaris Daniels saw 10 targets in Weeks 12 and 13 before sitting out last week with a groin injury. That gave Polk a chance to step up, and he bounced back from a quiet one-catch performance in Week 13.
However, Daniels is back in the lineup this week and Polk will be knocked down the WR pecking order as David Ungerer III and Damonte Coxie have been Kelly's favourite targets. Polk could even lose some reps to Dejon Brissett, who looks healthy after a 12-week stint on the IL.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Lions odds
Argonauts vs Lions live odds
Argonauts vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +4 | BC -4
- Moneyline: Toronto +180 | BC -220
- Over/Under: Over 52 | Under 52
Argonauts vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Argos upset the Lions as 4-point underdogs in Week 1 but have gone 5-6 straight up and 3-8 against the spread since.
- The Lions went 0-5 SU and ATS between Weeks 8 and 12 but have dominated the last two weeks, beating the Als by 14 points and demolishing Ottawa 38-12.
- Toronto was last in the CFL with 210.9 passing yards per game through Week 10 but has averaged 369 passing yards per game since Kelly returned at QB.
- While both secondaries have struggled, their pass rushes have been productive, with BC ranking second in the league with 30 sacks and the Argos tied for third with 27.
Argonauts vs Lions trend
The Over is 8-1 in Toronto's last nine games on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Lions.
Argonauts vs Lions game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Friday, 9-13-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Lions key injuries
Argonauts: Wynton McManis LB (Out), Darius Ciraco C (Out), Gregor McKellar G (Questionable), Woody Baron DT (Out).
Lions: David Mackie (Questionable), David Knevel OT (Questionable), Jarrell Broxton LT (Out), Ben Hladik LB (Out), Pete Robertson DE (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Lions weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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