The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are looking for their first win of the 2023 season as they host the Montreal Alouettes in Week 3 of CFL action on Friday. The Als are coming off a bye after picking up a win in their season opener, while the Ticats have dropped back-to-back contests and will likely be without starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell.
Nonetheless, CFL betting lines opened with the Ticats as 3.5-point home favorites for this showdown before that number ticked down to -2.5. Here are my best free Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats CFL picks and predictions for June 23.
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats best odds
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions
The first thing I will point out is that I'm not downgrading the Hamilton Tiger-Cats due to the doubtful status of Bo Levi Mitchell. Mitchell might be a former two-time MOP odds winner, but he hasn't looked the same since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2020. His four interceptions through the first two weeks were a big reason the Ticats lost each time.
Matthew Schiltz has been named the starter, and he's a capable veteran who started a few games last year. Schiltz completed 13 of 14 passes for 118 yards when he came in for Mitchell last week.
The injuries on Hamilton's offensive line are far more concerning than the change at quarterback. Prized offseason acquisition Joel Figueroa has been ruled out for Friday along with his opposite tackle Tyrone Riley and guard Coulter Woodmansey. Interior linemen Alex Fontana and Kyle Saxelid were already on the IL, and tackle Chris Van Zeyl is questionable as well.
This isn't the NFL, where teams have 55 players on the roster and more on a practice squad. The CFL has far fewer roster spots, and many of them are dedicated to wide receivers and defensive backs. That lack of depth means an absence of experience and chemistry in a position group that is only as strong as its weakest link.
To be fair, the Montreal Alouettes are banged up as well, specifically at receiver. Projected starters Reggie White Jr., Greg Ellingson, and Tyson Philpot are all sidelined. However, new quarterback Cody Fajardo played well without them in Week 1, completing 14 of 20 passes for 260 yards.
In addition, the Als offense leans heavily on the ground game and standout running back William Stanback. That's bad news for a Ticats stop unit that has surrendered 127.5 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Factor in the extra week of rest and preparation that the Als have enjoyed, and I'll back them with the points.
My best bet: Alouettes +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay
Alouettes +2.5
Tim White Over 68.5 receiving yards
William Stanback Over 62.5 rushing yards
Ticats wideout Tim White had 1,265 receiving yards in 17 games last year and entered this season as the betting favorite to lead the CFL in receiving yards.
He was targeted 10 times in Week 1, and while he hauled in just four of those, he went for 71 yards. White was more quiet last week, grabbing just five catches for 44 yards, but Schiltz was looking his way often. In fact, when Schiltz entered the game in the fourth quarter, he targeted White four times with the receiver corralling three of them for 45 yards.
Stanback was the best running back in the CFL in 2019 and 2021 before missing most of last year with a leg injury. He's back at full strenght this year and slimmed down in the hopes to getting a bit quicker. While he was limited to 42 yards in the season opener, he had 16 carries and should have more success against a Ticats defense that has struggled against the run.
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Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Ticats at -3.5 but early money came in on the Als, moving the spread to as low as -1 before buyback pushed it back to -2.5.
The Alouettes have gone 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their previous three meetings with the Tiger-Cats, including last year's playoff clash. That said, all of those contests took place in Montreal, and the Als had the since-departed Trevor Harris at QB. Harris is now in Saskatchewan and has traded places with Fajardo, who is joined by his former offensive coordinator Jason Maas (now the head coach for Montreal).
Fajardo led the Als to a 19-12 win at home in Week 1 against the Redblacks. The Als offensive line was wrecked in that contest but Fajardo had a gritty showing, and their defense held Ottawa to 220 yards while picking off three passes.
The Ticats entered this season as East Division favorites after signing Mitchell to a massive contract. However, Mitchell failed to live up to lofty expectations, and Hamilton lost its first two games by double digits. Playing their first game at home should help, but it will help even more if Schiltz can limit the turnovers that proved costly in Weeks 1 and 2.
The total opened at 44 and has seen minimal movement. The Under has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams, and with Hamilton's injuries on the line and Montreal's banged-up WR corps, it might be the play again.
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. East Division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats.
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Friday, June 23, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Alouettes: Nafees Lyon DB (Questionable), Sean Jamieson C, David Brown OL (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Raheem Wilson DB (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Bo Levi Mitchell QB (Doubtful), Tunde Adeleke DB (Questionable), Bailey Feltmate LB (Questionable), Joel Figueroa OT (Out), Tyrone Riley OT (Out), Coulter Woodmansey G (Out), Alex Fontana C (Out), Kyle Saxelid G (Out), Dylan Wynn DT (Out), Sean Thomas Erlington RB (Out), Anthony Johnson WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
