Sebastian Fundora hopes to stake his claim as the premier super welterweight in the world this Saturday as former unified welterweight champion Keith Thurman challenges him.
Fundora is the favorite at -380 in the boxing odds, while Thurman is a +280 underdog.
With Fundora firmly in his prime and the often inactive Thurman well past his, there might not be much the underdog can do to avoid a decision loss on March 28, per my Fundora vs. Thurman predictions and free betting picks.
Fundora vs Thurman prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Fundora moneyline (-380 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Fundora by decision (+260 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
This is the last time for “One Time” to make good on the promise he had years ago when he was the No. 1 welterweight in the world after beating Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia.
Back then, Keith Thurman was positioned as the main man before the rise of Terence Crawford, but injuries and an apparent disinterest in the sport have seen him fight four times over the last decade.
Fundora, on the other hand, is making the third defense of his super welterweight title after a dominant stoppage win over Tim Tszyu.
Thurman, who has proven to be one of the sport’s most insightful analysts during his extended periods of inactivity, wouldn’t have accepted a fight of this magnitude without believing he could win. Still, Thurman is now 37 and, despite stopping Brock Jarvis inside three rounds last year, appeared noticeably slower to pull the trigger.
Fundora is relentless and physically imposing, overwhelming his opponents with sustained aggression. He has an eight-inch height advantage and an eleven-inch reach advantage, along with being a southpaw, and he doesn’t seem to tire.
With Thurman as a reactionary fighter and heavily inactive, the window for an upset will close early. It’s hard to imagine that an older, ring-rusted, and undersized Thurman will land the kind of shots early enough to shut Fundora down.
Best best analysis
Though the fight may be competitive early as Fundora tries to gauge Thurman’s tank, he’ll start wearing him down as Thurman’s movement starts to slow and the quality of his shots begins to dip.
The tempo will be too high for Thruman to handle, and he’ll settle into survivor mode, hoping that he can catch Fundora with one shot.
The accumulation and pressure might be too much. Because Thurman is durable and crafty, and Fundora isn’t known for his one-shot power, this will be a one-sided affair that goes the distance.
COVERS INTEL: Fundora is the tallest and longest fighter Thurman has faced in his entire professional career.
Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman odds
| Method of victory | Sebastian Fundora | Keith Thurman |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -380 | +280 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -125 | +650 |
| Win by points or decision | +260 | +600 |
| Draw | +2000 | +2000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 28.
Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman tale of the tape
| Fundora | Thurman | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Super Welterweight | Weight Class | Super Welterweight |
| 80 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 23-1-1 | Record | 31-1 |
| 15 | Wins by KO | 23 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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