Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn predictions headline Saturday’s boxing action from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, where Garcia defends his WBC welterweight title for the first time.
Garcia enters as a sizable -330 favorite against Benn, who returns to the 147-pound limit for the first time since 2022 for his first world-title opportunity.
Check out our free betting picks for this welterweight showdown on Saturday, Sept. 12.
Who will win Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn: Ryan Garcia (-330)
Ryan Garcia is my pick because Conor Benn is walking into the worst possible matchup for a fighter making a brutal cut back to welterweight.
Benn's reputation has consistently exceeded what I've seen from him in the ring. His recent opposition hasn't been particularly impressive, yet he's struggled to separate himself from fighters an elite welterweight should handle convincingly.
Garcia has his own consistency issues, but his dismantling of Mario Barrios demonstrated a level of speed, power, and technical ability that Benn hasn't shown. Unless Garcia gives Benn opportunities by recklessly trading early, this is his fight to lose.
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Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn best bet: Garcia by KO/TKO (-105)
Garcia by KO/TKO is my best bet.
Benn hasn't been stopped professionally, but I'm less concerned with his historical durability than the condition he'll be in after making 147 pounds for the first time in four years.
Garcia just dropped the notoriously durable Barrios and battered him over 12 rounds, while Benn couldn't stop an aging Regis Prograis despite unloading on him.
Benn's pressure should give Garcia early countering opportunities, and as his legs and reactions fade, Garcia's speed and left hook should become increasingly dangerous.
COVERS INTEL: Benn hasn't made the 147-pound welterweight limit since April 2022, with his five fights since coming between super welterweight and middleweight.Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn prop
Garcia to win in Rounds 7-12 is my favorite prop.
Benn is a naturally physical fighter who has looked comfortable competing above welterweight, and I expect him to come out with plenty of bravado while his gas tank is full.
Garcia shouldn't oblige him by trading early. Instead, he can use his speed and movement to make Benn work before gradually increasing his offense. As the effects of Benn's return to 147 pounds begin to show, Garcia should overwhelm him and turn an initially competitive fight into an increasingly ugly one.
Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Ryan Garcia | Conor Benn |
| To win outright | -330 | +250 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -105 | +500 |
| To win by points or decision | +240 | +650 |
| Total rounds | Over 9.5 -115 |
Under 9.5 -115 |
Odds as of Sept. 12.
Garcia is a sizable -330 favorite, but his -105 KO/TKO price is the more appealing way to back him. Interestingly, Over and Under 9.5 rounds are both -115, suggesting the market is divided on when a stoppage might come. I’m siding with Garcia’s speed and power eventually breaking Benn down rather than laying the expensive moneyline
Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn tale of the tape
| Ryan Garcia | Conor Benn | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 25-2 | Record | 25-1 |
| 20 | Wins by KO | 14 |
Garcia owns slight advantages in height and reach, while Benn is the naturally thicker fighter after spending recent years competing above welterweight. Garcia also carries the more impressive finishing numbers with 20 knockouts in 25 victories. Benn has not scored a knockout since 2022, with all five of his wins since coming by decision
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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