The Latest from: Steve Paul

How much is experience worth when betting the Super Bowl pointspread odds?

Jan 31, 2019 - 9:08 AM ET

Perhaps the biggest argument for the drastic Super Bowl LIII line move and early action on the Patriots is that New England holds a huge edge in experience over the L.A. Rams. Steve Paul digs into the Big Game betting results to see how much experience - team, coach or quarterback - actually matters.

Give your bookie the boot with these solid Super Bowl LIII kicking prop bets

Jan 24, 2019 - 11:53 AM ET

Life as a kicker is tough. You're either a game-winning hero or the loser who cracked under the pressure. Steve Paul gives some love to the two Super Bowl kickers and shows you the best way to lean when it comes to Super Bowl LIII betting props around these big legs.

Three deep-dive NFL betting stats you need to know for Championship Sunday

Jan 17, 2019 - 1:50 PM ET

The NFL conference title games offer so many unique betting angles, Steve Paul can't contain his number crunching to just one. He's got three need-to-know stat trends for this Sunday's matchups, including which home field is setting up for a shootout.

Success Rate gives clarity in sea of stats when betting the NFL Divisional Round odds

Jan 10, 2019 - 10:48 AM ET

There's no shortage of statistics for those handicapping the NFL playoff odds. Steve Paul teaches us how to use "Success Rate" to quiet the noisy data and get a clearer evaluation of teams and players, especially as it pertains to these two Divisional Round pointspreads.

How the NFL betting odds treat home-field advantage during Wild Card Weekend

Jan 3, 2019 - 10:56 AM ET

The NFL Playoffs are upon us and as usual Wild Card Weekend has a couple of home teams that may not deserve their advantage. Steve Paul looks at how oddsmakers skew those home-field edges when the visitor is the strong side and how the host does against those postseason pointspreads.

What are NFL bettors supposed to do with these wacky Week 17 totals?

Dec 28, 2018 - 10:24 AM ET

The season finale is one of the toughest weeks of NFL football for bettors to figure out. Sunday's slate of Over/Under totals are especially tricky, with numbers ticking well below what we've seen in the highest-scoring NFL seasons ever. Steve Paul helps us out with these Over/Unders.

What's worth more to NFL betting in Week 16: Season-long stats or recent results?

Dec 20, 2018 - 11:46 AM ET

Week 16 can be a challenge for NFL bettors sizing up the stats. Should we bank on season-long numbers or lean into recent results? Steve Paul digs into the digits and betting returns, revealing how you should treat teams' and their long and short-term performances.

Cracking the Super Bowl code: NFL title teams have a tell

Dec 13, 2018 - 11:00 PM ET

When it comes to Super Bowl teams, is there a formula they follow year-to-year? Is there some sort of tell that conference champions have that can tip off those looking for hidden value in the NFL futures odds? Steve Paul tries to crack the championship code.

If you're tackling NFL teasers, make sure you're moving through these key betting numbers

Dec 6, 2018 - 12:12 PM ET

Teasers have become one of the most popular plays on NFL Sundays, with books giving you six points to add or subtract from any spread or total – but with the hook that you have to string two or more plays together. Steve Paul breaks down the numbers and tackles the best ways to "tease" spreads and totals.

'Must-win games' are more myth than moneymaker when betting the NFL pointspreads

Nov 29, 2018 - 3:21 PM ET

"Must-win games" might sell tickets but they don't cover the spread - at least not as much as you'd think. Steve Paul blows up the "must-win" myth and discovers the best situations to bet on - or against - teams desperate for a victory in the final weeks of the NFL schedule.

Stats say the hottest NFL bets can often be the worst wagers week to week

Nov 23, 2018 - 10:16 AM ET

Nothing is more tempting for NFL bettors than jumping on a red-hot winning streak. Steve Paul is here with some cautionary stats, saying that often the best bets against the spread can quickly lose their value while bad teams hold much more ATS value.

When running the ball is smart - and sharp - for NFL bettors

Nov 15, 2018 - 10:12 PM ET

The NFL is dominated by the pass, especially in 2018. But there are times when running the football is the best option for an offense - and for football bettors. Steve Paul looks at the smartest ways to run and which teams do it the best.

How picking apart these passing games helps you handicap the NFL Week 10 betting odds

Nov 9, 2018 - 5:49 AM ET

With an ungodly number of yards being totaled and scoring records being shattered in 2018, there’s no doubt that the NFL is a pass-first league. Steve Paul is dissecting play calling in the pass game, and how that can help you handicap the NFL Week 10 betting odds.

Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide for these odds-impacting NFL rushing attacks

Nov 1, 2018 - 12:49 PM ET

Running the football has received a bit of a bad rep in today's pass-happy NFL. But when done right, a potent rushing attack can be devastating - and profitable for those betting the football pointspreads. Steve Paul dissects how play calling in the run game is making and breaking these NFL bets.

How turnovers are making and breaking your NFL pointspread bets

Oct 25, 2018 - 12:46 PM ET

You can do all the stats analysis and handicapping the odds you want before placing a NFL bet: turnovers will turn those predictions on their ear.  Stat head Steve Paul takes a deeper look into turnovers, how much they’re worth and how their unpredictably can skew a team’s results.

Which football facets are helped most by home-field advantage when betting the NFL Week 7 odds?

Oct 18, 2018 - 7:09 AM ET

Home-field advantage is a real thing, especially when it comes to betting on the NFL pointspreads. But which facets of a football team are helped most by familiar surroundings? Steve Paul looks into home-field factors and isolates the hidden value in these Week 7 matchups.

Do early-season NFL ATS and Over/Under results predict future performance?

Oct 11, 2018 - 5:58 AM ET

When a NFL team starts a perfect 5-0 ATS, are they a good bet the rest of the season? What about those teams that constantly top the totals: will they keep playing Over? Steve Paul looks at how the market reacts to the best ATS and Over/Under plays and why Week 6 is such pivotal part of the schedule.

Night of the Living Dead... Numbers! Should NFL bettors beware these pointspreads?

Oct 3, 2018 - 8:25 PM ET

Halloween is coming up and what better to scare the crap out of football bettors than to talk about "dead numbers". Steve Paul explains what a dead number is and why those shopping around for the best NFL pointspreads should always keep them in mind. Boo!

Understanding NFL Expected Points Added (EPA) and why running the football doesn't matter

Sep 27, 2018 - 9:00 AM ET

We knew the NFL was a pass-happy league, but sizing up the EPA numbers (Expected Points Added) Steve Paul shows that being able to run the ball or stop the run is no longer the key to winning football games - and is far from effective when it comes to covering the NFL pointspreads.

Forget what you think you know about home-field advantage when it comes to NFL betting

Sep 20, 2018 - 8:46 AM ET

Home-field advantage is worth three points to the NFL spreads, right? Right? Right?! Wrong. Stat head Steve Paul digs into the best and worst - and most overrated - home-field advantages, and looks at how those numbers could open up betting value for Week 3 of the NFL season.

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