Three live long shots to win the 2018 World Series

Nov 5, 2017 |

We’re only 142 days until MLB Opening Day in 2018 and while the offseason hot stove hasn’t even been turned on to simmer; it’s never too early to look for value in the odds to win the 2018 World Series.

There’s plenty of player movement to come and there will be teams who improve drastically from now until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. But for now, we’re examining teams the way they’re projected to look heading into 2018 and searching for the best sleeper picks to win next year’s Fall Classic.

You might think there’s no point heading to the bargain bin at the MLB odds future shop, but consider the following: the Houston Astros became the seventh straight team to win the World Series after failing to win its division the season prior. They also became the fifth team this decade to win the Fall Classic a year removed from missing the playoffs.


Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.com.

We looked at Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system to identify the three most undervalued teams that could potentially make a World Series run in 2018.

All odds courtesy of Bet365.com.

Milwaukee Brewers (+2200)

The Brew Crew finished six games back of the Chicago Cubs after leading the NL Central for most of the first half of the season. Powered by the breakout season of Domino Santana, Milwaukee tied the Mets for the National League best 224 team homers.

The ZiPS model projections a 23.8 percent chance the Brewers win the NL Central and a 46.9 percent chance of postseason baseball in 2018.

Minnesota Twins (+2500)

It’s easy to overlook the Twins. They lack star talent, outside of Brian Dozier, and their 2017 playoff appearance abruptly ended at the hands of the New York Yankees.

The thing Minny has going for it is the division it plays in. The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox are in the midst of rebuilding their farm systems and the Kansas City Royals are about to watch the core of their team leave in free agency.

Yes, the Indians will most likely win the AL Central – but if they do slip out, the Twinkies would be the only real competition to steal the division. The ZiPS projects a 47.9 percent chance of Minnesota making the playoffs in 2018.

St. Louis Cardinals (+1800) 

The Cardinals were one of the most unlucky teams in 2017 according to the Pythagorean Theory. The club won 83 games but played like an 87-win team according to run differential.

They’re rumored to be on the prowl for a big bat this offseason with Giancarlo Stanton at the forefront. St. Louis’ batting lineup would become a lot more potent with Stanton’s power added to the mix.


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