The NHL playoffs continue this evening as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Dallas Stars. NHL odds have this game as a pick'em while the total sits at 5.5.
Find out which side of the total I’m on in my free NHL picks and Stars vs. Golden Knights predictions for Saturday, April 27.
Stars vs Golden Knights prediction
My best bet
Under 5.5 (+107 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
There were only four total goals scored in Game 2 of this series, and we should expect a similar result in Game 3. Both goaltenders have seen the puck well recently, and there is little reason to expect a different result on Saturday.
Jake Oettinger has allowed two or fewer goals in 8 of his past 10 starts, posting a 7-3 record with a .933 SV% and 1.70 GAA over that stretch. There were five or fewer total goals scored in eight of those 10 outings.
On the other hand, Logan Thompson has surrendered two or fewer goals in nine of his past 13 outings. Going back to those trends, there were five or fewer total goals scored in seven of those 13 games.
Not only are both goaltenders playing well, but both teams are doing a good job of preventing high-danger scoring chances in the playoffs. Among the 16 playoff teams, Dallas ranks fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while Vegas ranks ninth in the same category.
Meanwhile, both teams rank eighth or lower in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). These two teams rely on depth and two-way play for success, so it is not surprising that there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 16 of the past 22 meetings.
Both teams know that the Stars are in a must-win spot in this outing, so I expect a tight-checking affair with limited mistakes but conservative play in what essentially feels like an elimination game.
Stars vs Golden Knights same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 5.5
Stars moneyline
Dallas is not a team that should be down 0-2 entering the road portion of a best-of-seven series. I don’t want to take anything from Vegas, its depth has neutralized almost all the Stars’ firepower.
However, Dallas still outranks the Knights in this series in xGF/60, xGA/60, and expected goal differential per 60 minutes. The Stars’ backs are against the wall, and I don’t think they leave this contest trailing 3-0.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Golden Knights odds
Stars vs Golden Knights live odds
Stars vs Golden Knights opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas +1.5 | Vegas -1.5
- Moneyline: Dallas -102 | Vegas -111
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Stars vs Golden Knights moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This game opened near a pick ‘em and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I predict that the market will move this line closer to Dallas just because it has been the popular pick between these two clubs while its backs are truly against the wall.
- The total opened at 5.5 or six, depending on the book.
- I think there is more value in taking Under 5.5 at +107 rather than laying –117 on Under 6, but I think both are good plays
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Stars vs Golden Knights trend
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in 16 of the past 22 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Golden Knights.
Stars vs Golden Knights game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, truTV |
Stars vs Golden Knights latest injuries
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