The New York Yankees have cooled off a bit after their torrid start to the season, but even at 17-9 they’re still leading the AL East and poised to build back a lead after a pair of wins earlier in the week against the Oakland Athletics.
Things won’t be quite so easy on Friday with a road series against the Milwaukee Brewers getting going, but might Friday’s pitching matchup present some value on the Yankees?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth Yankees vs Brewers predictions and free MLB picks for Friday, April 26.
Yankees vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A Three True Outcome machine himself, Luis Gil has had a wild season which has seen him strike out 34.5% of the batters he’s faced while walking a ridiculous 20.2%. It’s been quite easy to live with given his incredibly low .105 expected batting average, and given he’s yet to allow a barrel this season things are looking up.
With that said, the walks could become a concern against a Milwaukee Brewers team which is walking nearly 10% of the time, and his 44.4% ground ball rate would certainly put barrels into play here against Milwaukee. Yes, the barrel rate looks epical right now, but he’s allowed just 36 batted balls this season and is due for a bit of regression.
On the flip side, Colin Rea has pitched to even fewer ground balls than Gil and is in a menacing spot against a Yankees team that was one of the best in home run-to-fly ball ratio a year ago and, while having a slightly down year, is still 12th in that department this season. With his .328 xBA and low strikeout rate, I think we’re bound to see a ton of balls coming back into play in dangerous positions.
With that, I like the Over here – as I do in every Gil start. He shouldn’t be bailed out quite as much against a team that has done a good enough job avoiding strikeouts, and I think his batted-ball stats will regress a bit in what should be a slugfest.
Yankees vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Luis Gil 3+ walks
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Given the strange nature of this game with Gil’s walks coming into question the most, I’m going to head to DraftKings to craft my parlay with some more exotic markets available to us, even though we don’t get the best deal on the Over.
I’ll first start by taking what’s probably a free space with the highest number available on his walks which is at three. As noted earlier, he’s issued a free pass to over 20% of the batters he’s faced, the Brewers are walking at nearly a 10% clip and he’s walked at least three in every start this season – with 17 in 19 2/3 innings altogether.
Then, I’ll pick out a hitter on the New York Yankees, since Rea’s low strikeout and walk rates should equate to plenty of contact. I want a hitter who’s done well against the sinker – Rea’s primary offering – but also one who’s hit the fastball as well given his sinker stays up in the zone and leads to far too many fly balls.
That brings me to Juan Soto, who leads this team early on in sinker run value as well as run value against the fastball. It’s not exactly the boldest claim here to say Gil will walk plenty and Soto will total two total bases, but I think it’s what makes the most sense. Soto has gone for two or more total bases in back-to-back games and should be in a very friendly matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Brewers odds
Yankees vs Brewers live odds
Yankees vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+35)| Milwaukee +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: New York -112 | Milwaukee +104
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line hasn’t really moved a ton. The Brewers opened as +106 underdogs, and remain there as of this writing after recovering a bit from a slight move towards the Yankees on Friday afternoon.
- The total also hasn’t taken any drastic turns, remaining at the opening number of 8.5 with some slight movement towards the Under as the day has worn on.
- With that, the Yankees are taking on 59% of the bet and 73% of the handle wagered on the moneyline at DraftKings, while the Under has accounted for 68% of the tickets and 65% of the money.
Yankees vs Brewers trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers
Yankees vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (1-1, 2.75 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (2-0, 2.08 ERA) |
Yankees vs Brewers latest injuries
Yankees vs Brewers weather
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