We have an incredible game on tap with England and Argentina facing off in the World Cup 2026 semifinal this afternoon.
Kalshi is one of our top prediction market apps, and I've highlighted three top-shelf England vs. Argentina props and World Cup picks for this semifinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday, July 15.
England vs Argentina props
| Player |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Argentina 4+ Corners |
64% | -178 |
| Lionel Messi 1+ Assist |
25% | +300 |
 Declan Rice 1+ Assist |
12% | +733 |
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My England vs Argentina prop picks
Argentina 4+ corners
At first glance, it may seem like madness backing Argentina to win corners, given they are a "wingerless" team.
It is often assumed that only teams fielding wide attacking players rack up corner kicks, and that Argentina's narrower attacking shape makes them a team to avoid in this market.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Yes, Argentina looks to funnel attacks through Lionel Messi in central areas, but they have still won at least five corners in regulation time in each of their knockout matches: five against Switzerland, six versus Egypt, and five against Cape Verde.
I expect Argentina to force England deep often enough to earn at least four corners once again, making this my favorite team prop of the semifinal.
Lionel Messi 1+ assist
Why would Lionel Messi have only a 25% chance of providing an assist in regulation?
The obvious argument against backing the 39-year-old is that he has been Argentina's primary finisher throughout the tournament, scoring eight goals in just 530 minutes.
However, he has also registered assists in each of Argentina's last two knockout victories over Switzerland and Egypt. Julian Alvarez has assumed more of the scoring burden recently, allowing Messi to drift deeper and create opportunities.
At just a 25% implied probability, the market is offering enough value to back Messi to set up a goal.
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Declan Rice 1+ assist
Declan Rice has already recorded an assist at this World Cup, and I like his chances of adding another in the semifinal.
His lone assist came against Croatia in England's opening match before illness limited his effectiveness in the quarterfinal victory over Norway. Reports suggest the Arsenal midfielder has recovered well ahead of Wednesday.
Rice remains England's primary set-piece taker, naturally increasing his assist potential. He also supplied six assists during Arsenal's Premier League title-winning campaign, producing one every six league matches.
With just a 12% implied probability, this long-shot play offers appealing upside.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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