Brazil and Morocco collide at MetLife Stadium on Saturday in what is arguably the most intriguing matchup of the World Cup so far.
Morocco arrive with growing expectations after their rise over the last four years, but their disciplined defensive structure and willingness to slow games down could make life difficult for Brazil's attack.
That's a big reason why my Brazil vs. Morocco predictions are backing Under 2.5 goals in a match that may be tighter than the odds suggest.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Saturday, June 13, with kickoff scheduled for 6:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Who will win Brazil vs Morocco: Brazil (-145)
Morocco have had great success in recent years, built on a backbone of defensive, pragmatic play. They’re well organised and could cause problems with the attacking forays of their fullbacks. However, that will open them up to Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, who will be able to exploit the spaces in behind. If Brazil’s wide players can get behind the fullbacks and into one-on-one matchups with Morocco’s central defenders, then it will create high-value goalscoring chances.
It's expected that Igor Thiago starts up front and is a serious goal threat with 22 Premier League goals to his name this year, but what really gives them the edge here is the ability to bring on young talents Endrick and Rayan, who will be able to change the game if Brazil need it.
Brazil only finished fifth in qualifying, but their issue was a defensive one, not a lack of goals, and Morocco are fairly toothless in attack, with 32-year-old Ayoub El Kaabi leading the line. The quality that Brazil have, particularly off the bench, combined with the speed and athleticism of their attackers, should be the decisive element of this game.
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TOp pick
Brazil vs Morocco Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 (-120)
Brazil have a lot of great attackers but they don’t feel like a cohesive team just yet, with likely striker Thiago only getting his first Brazil call-up in March. That lack of playing time in forward positions is likely to be on show here, especially with the central midfield duo of Casemiro and Bruno Guimaraes lacking real creativity.
This Brazil team saw Under 2.5 goals land in 11 of their 18 World Cup qualifiers, which speaks to both their lack of a world-class striker and an un-Brazilian style of play, which is evidenced by the importance of Casemiro sitting in front of the back four.
The Moroccan side has huge experience with Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui, adding real know-how. They won the African Cup of Nations back in January on the back of a defense-first strategy, which saw them try to choke out their opposition, keeping the score low with a high press. Just one of their seven games in that competition had Over 2.5 goals.
Brazil vs Morocco goal scorer pick
Raphinha (+210)
Raphinha is an underrated shout to win the Golden Boot at this World Cup, and that starts with a goal here. The Barcelona man will be playing on the right of the Brazil attack, putting him up against Mazraoui, who is coming into this with fitness concerns. Playing an injured Mazraoui, who’ll push up to aid the Moroccan attack, should open up a lot of space for Raphinha to gallop into.
Over the past two seasons, he’s scored 53 goals for Barcelona, a lot of which have come from forays down the wing and his ability to beat a man and rely on his natural speed, which is key with Mazraoui suffering from injury. We might also see Raphinha move more centrally at times, which gives him extra value as an out-of-position player.
Brazil vs Morocco confirmed starting lineup
Brazil (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhaes, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Bruno Guimaraes; Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, Vinicius Jr.; Thiago.
Morocco (4-2-3-1): Belammari; Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazraoui; Mourabet, Aynaoui; Diaz, Ounahi, Ezzalzouli; Kaabi.
Brazil vs Morocco injuries
Brazil: Neymar (Questionable).
Morocco: Noussair Mazraoui (Questionable), Abde Ezzalzouli (Questionable), Soufiane Rahimi (Questionable).
Brazil vs Morocco weather
The weather at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough will be mostly clear and hot, with temperatures hovering around 29°C to 31°C (84°F to 88°F) with no expected rain.
Brazil vs Morocco odds
Get the latest World Cup odds ahead of kick-off on Saturday, June 13.
 Brazil |
 Morocco |
|
|---|---|---|
| -144 | Moneyline | +456 |
| +300 | Draw | +300 |
| Over 2.5 (-113) | Total | Under 2.5 (-113) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Brazil vs Morocco
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date | Saturday, June 13, 2026 |
| Time | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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