Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: The House Wins By a Lot

Are we, as a basketball-watching society, properly appreciating the Las Vegas Aces? Probably not. Unfortunately, beating up on the Washington Mystics tonight will not change that, not when the Mystics are without multiple starters, including star Elena Delle Donne. But the betting perspective can add some angst, with this spread pushing well past 15 points and flirting with 18. Can even Las Vegas cover a line that large?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Mystics vs the Aces on August 11, with tip set for 10:00 ET.

Mystics vs Aces best odds

Mystics vs Aces picks and predictions

Perhaps the most absurd stat in sports right now is that the Aces have been favored by 12 or more points in 18 of their 28 games, going a perfect 18-0 straight up in them. But Las Vegas is favored by 17.5 tonight, as of midday. So let’s bump that threshold up a bit.

The Aces have been favored by 15 or more points in 11 of their 28 games. Still absurd.

Remove the first two instances of that on the road — games back in late May and the first week of June — and Las Vegas has gone 6-3 ATS when favored by 15 or more points in the last two months. That is a trend, but perhaps not an overwhelmingly lopsided one.

Fine, here is an overwhelming one: the Aces have led at halftime by an average of 15 points in all nine games, with no margin smaller than nine points. When Las Vegas fails to cover a game with a spread this hefty, it is because the Aces ease up, understandably so.

They do not start slowly. Go ahead and remove the single outlier, a 31-point halftime lead against the Sparks in late May, and the average halftime lead is still 13 points with seven of those eight games featuring leads greater than tonight’s halftime spread of 9.5 points.

Maybe this seems too simple, but that has been Las Vegas this season, simple dominance.

Since Elena Delle Donne suffered an ankle injury, the Mystics have scored 99.7 points per 100 possessions, good for No. 8 in the league. Their 3-point shooting percentage sits last at just 31.5% while shooting a perfectly-league-average 27.4 threes per 100 possessions.

Delle Donne made Washington a trendy dark horse in the preseason, but without her, the Mystics do not have the firepower to keep up with this ruthless Aces roster, a roster that has not had an issue establishing big leads when expected to this season.

My best bet: Aces -9.5 first half (-113 at BetRivers)

Mystics vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

The earliest version of this spread opened at 16 points — obviously in the Aces' favor — on Thursday evening, a hesitant number in case Delle Donne could make a return to action after practicing more on Thursday. But with her subsequently being ruled out, the number jumped up to -17.5. It spent some of early Friday morning as hefty as -18.5 before ticking back down to -17.5 at most books.

That Friday morning jump felt reactionary to the initial movement off -16, and that number was always flawed given it was based in part on Delle Donne’s health. So, settling at -17.5 is fair.

The total opened as low as 167.5 before rising all the way to 169.5 on Friday morning. Handicapping the total in these expected blow outs can be a fool’s errand. Who knows how seriously anyone will take the fourth quarter?

But for what it’s worth, the Under has cashed in seven of the 11 games in which Las Vegas was favored by at least 15 points.

Mystics vs Aces betting trend to know

Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Aces.

Mystics vs Aces game info

Mystics vs Aces key injuries

Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out), Kristi Toliver G (Out), Ariel Atkins G (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out), Candace Parker F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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