Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Mystics Reign Supreme Over Dream

The Atlanta Dream will look to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Washington Mystics in WNBA action on Friday night. The Dream are pegged as tepid home underdogs in the WNBA odds.

Washington (9-5) scored a win over Atlanta (5-8) on Wednesday night, blowing open the game in the second quarter on its way to a 109-86 victory. Elena Delle Donne led all scorers with 25 points.

That game took place in Washington, but it also showed an obvious gap between these two teams. We’ll talk about whether Atlanta can turn the tables at home in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mystics vs. Dream on June 30.

Mystics vs Dream best odds

Mystics vs Dream picks and predictions

A week ago, the Atlanta Dream were on top of the world. Atlanta was coming off of three straight wins, moving the team into playoff position and giving it a .500 record. But that’s now a distant memory, as the Dream have lost three straight, including an embarrassing 30-point home drubbing at the hands of the New York Liberty.

In fact, all three of these losses have come by double digits. Most recently, the Washington Mystics beat them by 23 points in Washington in a game that was effectively over at halftime. While Washington had to play without center Shakira Austin (who will miss tonight’s game as well due to a hip strain), the Dream weren’t able to take significant advantage, as they only outscored the Mystics 38-36 in the paint.

Meanwhile, Washington dominated the game everywhere else on the court. The Mystics shot 11-for-22 from three-point range, and went 20-for-21 from the free throw line. Elena Delle Donne kept things close in the paint, while Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines Allen each went 3-for-4 from deep in the win.

A deeper look at the box score reveals some troubling trends for the Dream. They lost decisively despite going to the free throw line 35 times, and shot a paltry 37.8% from the field. Cheyenne Parker more than held her own against Delle Donne, scoring 23 points in just 23 minutes, but it wasn’t nearly enough to balance out the overall talent gap on the court.

There’s every reason to expect a similar outcome tonight in Atlanta. The Dream have been the worst defensive team in the WNBA, giving up 89.9 points per game. While Atlanta has relied on its offense to keep it in games, that one-sided approach is ill-suited for playing against Washington. The Mystics lead the WNBA in points allowed per game (74.6), field goal percentage against (39.5%), and three-point percentage against (29.3%). 

The Mystics have been able to hang with the best teams in the WNBA, already having beat the Liberty once this year and nearly doing it again last weekend in New York before a wild finish led to an overtime loss. They have more than enough to take care of a reeling Atlanta team that is struggling to even stay in games right now. 

Yet the line on this game is just 2.5 points at most books. I’m more than comfortable giving a couple of points with the Mystics tonight. My pick is Washington on the spread.

My best bet: Mystics -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Mystics vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mystics opened as a three-point favorite at most sportsbooks. As of early Friday, that number has dropped to -2.5 at most sites, though you can still find a few books offering the flat three-point line if you want to bet on Atlanta. 

Both teams have been average on the spread this year. Washington is an even 7-7 against the spread, while Atlanta has put up a 6-7 ATS record in 2023.

When we look at what these teams have done this year, it’s hard to justify such a small spread on the game. We can’t even use the Austin hip injury as a reason for the narrow line, as she also missed Wednesday’s blowout win for the Mystics. As I said above, my best bet is taking Washington minus the points tonight.

Most books started the total on tonight’s contest at 164.5 points, and that’s still the most common number on the market at the time of this writing. While the standard -110 is the best you can do on the Under, a few books have tilted the line in that direction, meaning you can get -105 on the Over. 

Obviously, Wednesday’s game between these teams went well over that number, finishing at a robust 195 points. While Atlanta does have a porous defense, we can’t expect Washington to put up 109 points again.

Still, we know that the Dream play to an average total of 174.1. And while the Mystics have been a great defensive team, they may not be able to slow the pace all that much. Washington may also remain a bit vulnerable outside — and thus a little less effective defensively — with Austin out of the lineup. I’m leaning towards taking the Over here, especially if you can get reduced juice at your sportsbook of choice.

Mystics vs Dream betting trend to know

The Mystics are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Dream.

Mystics vs Dream game info

Mystics vs Dream key injuries

Mystics: Shakira Austin (C – Out), Kristi Toliver (G – Out), Li Meng (G – Out).
Dream: Aari McDonald (G – Out), Iliana Rupert (C – Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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