Sun vs Aces Predictions, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

There have been no clouds in the Sun's sky this season, but sportsbooks are tabbing them as sizeable underdogs to the Aces tonight. See why our WNBA picks think there's value in that line.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jun 21, 2024 • 09:23 ET • 4 min read
Alyssa Thomas WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The current No. 1 seed gets their first look at reigning two-time champs, when the Connecticut Sun visit the Las Vegas Aces. 
 
Sportsbooks are giving the Aces mad respect in this matchup, pegging them as 6-point home favorites in the WNBA odds, which is where my Sun vs. Aces prediction sees the best value tonight.
 
Check my free WNBA picks for Friday, June 21 below, and why you should be jumping on all those extra points for the team with the best record in the league.

Sun vs Aces predictions

My best bet
Sun +6 (-108 at DraftKings)

My analysis

If this battle is based on styles, we’re going to find out if it’s offense or defense that reigns supreme.
 
Vegas currently leads the WNBA in scoring at a hefty 87.4 points per game, ranking Top 4 in both field goal and 3-point percentage. The Aces have scored 88 points or more in a game eight times.
 
On the other side is Connecticut, the W’s stingiest scoring defense, surrendering just 70.7 points per game, limiting teams to a paltry 29% mark from distance (second), and holding teams to just 30.5 rebounds per game, the best mark in the league.
 
The Aces are Bottom 4 in scoring defense, allowing teams to post 85.5 points per game, with opponents doing major damage from beyond the arc, hitting at a 38.6% rate, by far the worst defensive mark in the W.
 
The Sun aren’t a scoring juggernaut, but they’re middle of the pack scoring 80.9 points per game, while ranking Top 3 in field goal shooting at 44.6%.
 
Connecticut is at its best squeezing teams on the margins, winning those battles, and picking up plus-point advantages.
 
The Sun allow the fewest points off turnovers and fast break points, while ranking second in second-chance points allowed. Conversely, they also rank second in both points off turnovers and second-chance points.
 
You can never count out a champion, yes, but the Aces have not looked championship-caliber when going up against the other WNBA heavies — games that have been played within the last 10 days.

Vegas dropped a 90-82 decision to the New York Liberty on June 15, four days after getting beat up by the Minnesota Lynx 100-86. Minnesota, New York, and Connecticut are the only teams with more than 10 wins this season.
 
Connecticut has yet to lose on the road, while Vegas is sitting at 4-4 at home.
 
You have better odds picking an outright win, but the generous Sun spread covers you in the event this one goes down to the wire.

Sun vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)

Sun +6

A’ja Wilson Under 26.5 points

Tyasha Harris Over 1.5 3-pointers made

At first glance, it might seem a little odd to take the Under for WNBA leading scorer A’ja Wilson
 
Wilson has topped her 26.5 scoring line in nine of her last 10 outings, the only blip a 21-point outing in a loss to the Liberty.
 
The 27-year-old is the heavy WNBA MVP odds favorite, but we’ll see how she fares in her first meeting with the Sun. Over the last two seasons, including the playoffs, Connecticut has held Wilson Under this total in 10 straight games, with her highest scoring output hitting 24 points.
 
While she’s still putting up numbers, Wilson hasn’t led the Aces in scoring for three straight, after topping the charts nine of the first 10. I like the Sun forcing others to beat them Friday night.
 
We know Vegas has the worst 3-point shooting defense, so we’re targeting Connecticut sharpshooter Tyasha Harris, who sits eighth from distance with a 41.4% clip.
 
Harris has a makeable 1.5 line against the Aces, a figure she’s topped in three straight games, while connecting from 3-point range at least twice in five of her last seven outings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sun vs Aces odds

Sun vs Aces live odds

Get the latest Sun vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.

Sun vs Aces opening odds

  • Spread: Connecticut +5.5 (-110) | Las Vegas -5.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Connecticut +180 | Las Vegas -225
  • Over/Under: Over 162.5 (-110)| Under 162.5 (-110)

Sun vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Las Vegas is 4-9-0 against the spread this season.

  • Connecticut is the only team without a road loss this year.

  • The Aces have hit the Over in 10 of 13 games this season.

  • The Sun have a 7-7-0 total record.

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Sun vs Aces trend

Las Vegas is 3-8-0 ATS as 5.5-point favorites or better this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces.

Sun vs Aces game info

Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Friday, 6-21-2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: ION

Sun vs Aces latest injuries

Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Out).
Aces: Kierstan Bell G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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