Storm vs Mercury Predictions, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

With the Phoenix Mercury still rounding into shape, the oddsmakers aren't giving the Seattle Storm enough credit heading into Sunday afternoon's desert duel. Read more in Rory Breasail's expert handicap below.

Rory Breasail - Betting Analyst at
Rory Breasail • Betting Analyst
Jun 15, 2024 • 20:09 ET • 4 min read
Jewell Loyd Seattle Storm WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One of the more storied rivalries in WNBA lore resumes in earnest on Sunday, as the Seattle Storm head to Arizona to take on the Phoenix Mercury.

This old rivalry has new juice following Skylar Diggins-Smith's acrimonious ending in Phoenix, but my Storm vs. Mercury predictions believe Sunday’s spread is based too much on the on-paper talents of these two squads, rather than the way the pieces are fitting together in practice so far.

Let's get into it with our WNBA picks for Sunday, June 17.

Storm vs Mercury predictions

My best bet
Storm -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

Few WNBA rivalries are as storied as the longtime competition between best friends and WNBA legends Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi.

But with Bird retiring and former Phoenix Mercury point guard Skylar Diggins-Smith moving on to join Seattle Storm, a less friendly, but no less intense rivalry figures to spring up in its place. The details of Diggins-Smith's exit are best left to other venues, but suffice it to say there is no love lost between her and DT.

These two teams played on June 4, and the Storm routed the Mercury 80-62. However, there were a couple of notable names out of the lineup that will drastically change the tenor of the rematch, as Brittney Griner and Nneka Ogwumike are both set to play.

While Griner is a huge addition for the Mercury, Phoenix is also having to learn how to play as a team all over again considering she missed the first 10 games of the season. They have a lot of talent that seems like it should fit together seamlessly, but there are a lot of miscues on both ends that will limit their ceiling for now.

It’s not dissimilar to how Seattle began the year, losing three of four before winning six in a row. Teams incorporating multiple star talents need time to gel. This spread seems to be accounting for a fully actualized Mercury squad, which in reality, just isn't the case.

The Storm can still get better too, but the difference is they’re already elite. They’re 9-4 straight up and against the spread, while Phoenix is below .500 at 6-7.

The Mercury and Storm have been similar quality offenses this season, but what sets them apart is that the Storm have been an elite defense.

While the Mercury have multiple strong defenders like Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper, the Storm thrive by playing no weak links. A Mercury opponent that works hard enough can eventually target Diana Taurasi on a switch or a back cut, but no such easy out exists in the Storm’s healthy rotation.

Seattle’s 93.2 defensive rating is third best in the W, and it’s why the Storm's net rating of +6.8 is more than 12 points better than Phoenix's. The stark difference in net rating is why this spread seems poorly set to me. Even accounting for homecourt advantage, this line could easily be closer to -5.5 in favor of Seattle.

As such, getting the Storm at -2.5 is my favorite bet on Sunday’s board.

Storm vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)

Storm -2.5

Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 threes

Under 164.5

The Mercury allow more opponent 3-point attempts than any other team in the W, which opens the path for Jewell Loyd to get back on track from distance.

Loyd has struggled mightily this season shooting the ball, but she’s an elite talent who averaged three made triples per game last season. It’s only a matter of time before she regresses to her career rates. The volume and quality of open looks she’s likely to receive playing Phoenix is as good as time as any.

The Storm have been winning with defense, which has contributed to the Under going 5-2 in their last seven road games. As I expect a Seattle victory, I also like the Under at 164.5.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Storm vs Mercury odds

Storm vs Mercury live odds

Get the latest Storm vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.

Storm vs Mercury opening odds

  • Spread: Seattle -2.5 (-110) | Phoenix +2.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Seattle -145 | Phoenix +120
  • Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)

Storm vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Seattle opened as -2.5 point road favorites over Phoenix, with no line movement to speak of as of Saturday evening.
  • The Storm are 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the road.
  • The total has been similarly static, opening and standing at a modest 164.5.
  • The Under is 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven road games.

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Storm vs Mercury trend

The Storm are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mercury.

Storm vs Mercury game info

Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Sunday, 6-16-2024
Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET

Storm vs Mercury latest injuries

Storm: No injuries to report.
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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