The WNBA calendar has flipped the page to September, meaning basketball bettors have entered the home stretch of the season.
September also signals a major shift for me in terms of my focus. With football underway, I’ll be swapping out WNBA bets for pigskin prognostications. But before that happens, I take one last swing at the WNBA odds — specifically the player prop markets.
Here are my best WNBA picks and predictions for September 3.
WNBA player prop bets for September 3
- Tina Charles Over 15.5 points (-125 at BetRivers)
- Satou Sabally Over 6.5 rebounds (-115 at Caesars)
- Chelsea Gray Under 16.5 points + assists + rebounds (-128 at FanDuel)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Prop bet #1: Tina Charles Over 15.5 points
Atlanta Dream veteran Tina Charles has been a monster since the league resumed play.
The 6-foot-4 forward is averaging 19 points in the seven games since the Olympic break, including a 23-point effort in the win over L.A. this past weekend. Charles is playing a bigger role in the offense for Atlanta, attempting an average of 2.5 more field goals per game in the second half of the schedule.
The Dream are battling for the final postseason spot and face the Phoenix Mercury tonight. Charles’ scoring prop has an Over/Under of 15.5 points, which is a bar she’s surpassed in five of her last seven showings.
The Mercury sit in the bottom third of the league in terms of defensive rating and are susceptible to second-chance points, as Phoenix gets pushed around for a WNBA-worst 9.9 offensive rebounds allowed per contest. Charles is an inside-out threat but thrives on those offensive putbacks and second-chance buckets.
Player projections for Charles all sit north of her scoring total, with my number sitting at 17.5 points versus the Mercury. That’s more than enough to top her points total tonight.
Prop bet #2: Satou Sabally Over 6.5 rebounds
It might be too little too late when it comes to Satou Sabally’s return to the Dallas Wings, but don’t tell that to the reigning Most Improved Player.
After missing the first half of the season, Sabally is averaging 20.6 points and more than six rebounds per contest, giving a dismal Dallas squad a shot in the arm. The versatile 6-foot-4 forward is doing it all for the Wings, including hitting the glass hard.
While Sabally recorded only four rebounds in the loss to Indiana on Sunday, she’s wrangled seven or more boards in four of her first seven games back. Dallas takes on a short-handed Washington Mystics frontcourt that’s missing starting center and leading rebounder Shakira Austin.
Since the league picked back up, the Wings and Mystics are playing the two fastest paces in the WNBA, which means plenty of possessions and extra field goal attempts, panning out to more rebounding opportunities.
WNBA prop projections for Sabally forecast more than seven rebounds with my number calling for 7.2 boards on Tuesday. That’s before making adjustments for Austin’s absence under the rim.
Prop bet #3: Chelsea Gray Under 16.5 points + assists + rebounds
The Las Vegas Aces are counting down the days until the playoffs begin while trying to keep their stars healthy for that run at a third straight WNBA title.
The reigning champs got a scare last time out with standout point guard Chelsea Gray missing the second half of Sunday’s game with Phoenix due to back injury. While Gray isn’t on the injury report for tonight’s tilt with the Chicago Sky, bettors should be cautious of Gray’s involvement if her back continues to be a problem.
The Aces are 12-point home favorites tonight but have two huge road games versus Connecticut and New York later in the week. Should Las Vegas live up to that lofty point spread and pull away tonight, coach Becky Hammon could rest Gray in the second half.
Sportsbooks have her points + assists + rebounds prop at 16.5 O/U and while some projections call for as many as 18 combo stats from Gray, I’m not confident the minutes will be there to reach that mark.
Some models produce a collection of 16 points + assists + rebounds with her floor time at 27 minutes — and even that could be a stretch should the Aces perform like they did this weekend and offer Hammon the opportunity to sit the stars.
Today’s WNBA games
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