A solo game in the WNBA sees the Washington Mystics venture to the Big Apple to battle the New York Liberty on Thursday.
Washington will be without superstar forward Elena Delle Donne, who is resting her tender back, but the Liberty may provide all the star power we need, with third-year guard Sabrina Ionescu on a tear this month. Her play has New York on a 6-2 against the spread run after cashing in only once in the opening six games of the season.
Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mystics vs. Liberty on June 16.
Mystics vs Liberty odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Mystics vs Liberty predictions
Predictions made on 6/16/2022 at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mystics vs Liberty info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Thursday, June 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: YES
Mystics vs Liberty betting preview
Key injuries
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out).
Liberty: Rebecca Allen G (Doubtful), DiDi Richards G (Probable), Jocelyn Willoughby F (Out), Betnijah Laney G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mystics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Liberty.
Mystics vs Liberty picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Behind Ionescu’s red-hot run in June, the Liberty have taken the fight to recent opponents with a 4-2 straight up record in the past six outings, including a 74-70 win at Washington on June 3.
The Mystics had Delle Donne in the lineup for that loss but couldn’t get past a wretched offensive effort, tying a season low of 70 points. But New York is far from a defensive stalwart, even during this mid-season turnaround, owning a defensive rating of 100.4 in June.
The Mystics are getting used to playing without their franchise player on the court and have capable talents to turn to, as evidenced in the past two games with Phoenix.
With Delle Donne as a late scratch, Washington got 12 or more points from four of the five starters, and nine points from two other players in an overtime loss to the Mercury on Sunday. She was back on the floor for Tuesday’s 83-65 victory but scored only seven points, while four other Mystics posted double figures.
That depth makes Washington a tougher task to stop for a Liberty team that has thrived on the excelled play of their star point guard. Ionescu dropped 24 points on 6 of 15 shooting in the last matchup with the Mystics and is averaging 24 points per game this month, fresh off a triple double in the 88-86 loss to the WNBA champion Chicago Sky on Sunday.
Washington could sell out on stopping the former Oregon star with quick pick-ups and face guarding to get the ball out of her hands, putting the weight on the Liberty’s other offensive weapons. New York is getting solid work from forward Natasha Howard — who’s averaging more than 16 points this month — but inconsistent contributions from the rest of the roster.
The Mystics own the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA, backed behind a methodical pace that ranks slowest in the league. Washington allows less than 65 field goal attempts per game due to that stingy strategy, which makes it tough for opposing players to get into an offensive rhythm.
This spread has dropped from Mystics -4.5 to -4 with everyone jumping on the Liberty, but I’m not discounting the depth of Washington.
Prediction: Mystics -4 (-110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
Washington has been able to cushion the loss of Delle Donne in the scoring department thanks to its talent-rich roster, but losing the 6-foot-5 forward in the middle of this defense has had an impact.
Before Delle Donne was limited to a little over seven minutes vs. Minnesota last week — due to back soreness — the Mystics had allowed 71 points per game with her in the lineup compared to 77.25 points against without her. We saw this trend in the two-game set with Phoenix, giving up 85 points in regulation on Sunday without EDD, then tightening up for only 65 points against with her on the floor Tuesday.
The last matchup between these teams was the WNBA equivalent to Nyquil-laced turkey, with just 98 combined points scored through the first three quarters. That 74-70 final finished well below the closing total of 154 points, but an improved offensive effort is expected from oddsmakers tonight.
This Over/Under actually opened as high as 160 points and has sunk to as low as 156 before buy back on the Over put the number back up.
Prediction: Over 156.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best bet
New York’s turnaround has been due in part to the team trimming down its turnovers, coughing up the ball an average of 13 times per game this month vs. 19.3 per outing in the opening eight games of the season.
The Liberty did have 14 turnovers against Chicago, which the Sky translated into only 12 points. Washington, however, is less forgiving. The Mystics force 16.4 turnovers per game (third most), which ends up on the scoreboard as 17.5 points off those mistakes, on average.
Despite cleaning up those errors, the Liberty have had to outgun many of their recent foes, after allowing 83, 84, and 88 points in three of their last four contests.
The Mystics have been the best Under play in the WNBA this season, but the offense is starting to sizzle, averaging 83 points over their last five games while going 3-2 O/U in that span.
Books have a modest team total of 79.5 points set for D.C. without Delle Donne in the mix, but this team can still get points well beyond its banged-up star.
Pick: Mystics team total Over 79.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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