The Phoenix Mercury have gotten off to a solid start this season, going 5-3 through their first eight games, including 4-1 at home. The WNBA’s newest team, the Golden State Valkyries, faces a tough test tonight on the road as they look to snap a three-game losing streak.
The Valkyries have gotten strong play from Veronica Burton, and the line on Burton’s combo prop is set far too low not to target.
Read my WNBA picks to see why I love that prop, how I’m betting the spread, and why I’m targeting a scoring prop for Phoenix’s top offensive contributor.
Valkyries vs Mercury predictions
My Valkyries vs Mercury best bet: Veronica Burton Over 17.5 points+rebounds+assists (-135 at bet365)
Veronica Burton averaged just 13.9 minutes across her first three seasons with the Wings and Sun before landing a golden opportunity with the Golden State Valkyries. Burton has played each of the first six games of the season, yielding productive results.
In the season-opener, Burton posted a 2/2/3 line in just 17 minutes, but her playing time has increased significantly across her last five. In that span, she’s logged 29.4 minutes per game, including 31.3 minutes in three road matchups. Across those five games, Burton has averaged a healthy 14 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists while hitting the Over on this line four times.
Golden State is still feeling things out with its fledgling roster, but Burton has emerged near the front of the pack for this promising young core. She is tied for team lead in scoring, fifth in rebounds, and leads the team in assists while playing the third-most minutes.
The Phoenix Mercury has allowed the third-fewest points this season, but the team is middle-of-the-pack in opponent assists and 11th in total rebounds allowed. This is not a scary matchup, especially for a player so heavily involved in her team’s offense.
Veteran Tiffany Hayes is questionable for this one with a facial injury, and her absence could provide an additional boost to Burton’s counting stats.
Valkyries vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Veronica Burton Over 17.5 pts+reb+ast
Satou Sabally Over 21.5 points
Mercury moneyline
Satou Sabally ranks sixth in the W at 20.5 points per game, and she leads all players in Usage Rate at a healthy 32.1. Sabally has reached 21 points in four of eight games this season, including two of her last three. She should have no problem hitting the Over against a Valkyries squad ranked ninth in defensive rating.
Phoenix boasts a top-three defense this season, and the team has a +1.4 Net Rating. The Valkyries are still finding their way, and the team is -10.7 in Net Rating through six games with a 2-4 record.
Phoenix has won four of five at home this season, and the Mercury are the more talented team. They have the better roster and the crowd on their side and should get the win tonight.
Valkyries vs Mercury odds
Valkyries vs Mercury live odds
Valkyries vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +6 (-110) | Phoenix -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State (+200) | Phoenix (-245)
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 (-110) | Under 157.5 (-110)
Valkyries vs Mercury trend
Phoenix is 5-3 SU this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Valkyries vs. Mercury.
How to watch Valkyries vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, 6-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon |
Valkyries vs Mercury latest injuries
Valkyries: None.
Mercury: Alyssa Thomas (OUT), Kahleah Copper (OUT), Natasha Mack (OUT)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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