The WNBA playoffs tip off today as all eight teams take the court for four exciting first-round series. I’m breaking down each one in my WNBA moneyline picks.
Underdogs can make today’s games interesting, but I’m taking the favorites to win in each contest and building out a moneyline combo on Kalshi.
Here are my WNBA picks for Sunday, Sept. 27.
WNBA moneyline picks: Sept. 27
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Liberty vs  Lynx |
72% |
 Fever vs  Aces |
62% |
 Mystics vs  Dream |
71% |
 Wings vs  Valkyries |
72% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert WNBA moneyline picks: Sept. 27
Liberty vs Lynx pick: Lynx
The New York Liberty won the regular-season series 2-1, but the teams split the series in two matchups that featured both Napheesa Collier and Olivia Miles.
Minnesota ranks in the Top 5 in offensive and defensive rating. New York ranks in the Top 7 in both categories, but the Liberty’s defense ranks 10th on the road. Two-way star Jonquel Jones’ questionable status certainly doesn’t help New York.
The Liberty have the size and shooting to counter Minnesota, and NY can make this one interesting as 6.5-point underdogs. The Liberty’s lackluster road defense, however, puts it at a disadvantage against a Lynx team that owned a 114 offensive rating at home.
Check out Zak Hanshew's complete Liberty vs. Lynx predictions.
Fever vs Aces pick: Aces
The Indiana Fever led the league with an historic offensive rating, and the Las vegas Aces were right behind them. In a battle between the league's top-two offenses, the road team has a puncher’s chance.
Las Vegas has won three of the last four WNBA championships, and the team hasn’t lost a first-round playoff series since 2019. Indiana won two of three regular-season matchups, but MVP favorite A’ja Wilson sat out one of those losses.
Wilson averaged 26.2 points on 52.7% shooting in the regular season, but in two tilts against the Fever, those numbers dropped to 23 points on 39.6% shooting thanks to strong defense from Aliyah Boston.
Boston is questionable with a leg injury, and if she sits, LV would rightfully be the heavy favorite.
Check out Tom Oldfield's complete Fever vs. Aces predictions.
Mystics vs Dream pick: Dream
The Atlanta Dream are the older and more experienced team, but Washington’s core of Sonia Citron, Shakira Austin, and Kiki Iriafen has played strong basketball this season.
Washington finished with the second-best defensive rating, and the Mystics’ 12th-ranked offense has improved to seventh over the last 15 games.
Heading into the playoffs, the Mystics are a legitimate two-way threat, and they beat the Dream twice in the regular season at home. The Mystics were blown out by the Dream in Atlanta.
As well as Washington played to close out the season, Atlanta was even better. Over the final 15 games of the season, the Dream owned the best OR (115.7), second-best DR (98.5), and best net rating (17.2) while going 12-3.
Washington can keep this close, but the Dream have been consistent on both ends of the floor, while Washington is still figuring things out on offense.
Wings vs Valkyries pick: Valkyries
The Golden State Valkyries led the WNBA in DR (99.1), fewest points surrendered (75.1), and opponent FG% (41.4). The V’s swept the regular-season series against the Dallas Wings, and they’ve won six straight by an average of 10.3 points.
Dallas has a chance to keep this one interesting if Paige Bueckers rises to the occasion in her first playoff series. Bueckers is always a threat to take over a contest, and Jessica Shepard can control the paint and find teammates for second-chance opportunities.
Golden State’s offense could sputter if the triples aren’t falling, and if Bueckers gets hot, this game could be close. Those are some big “ifs,” and Golden State’s consistent defense more than makes up for a potentially volatile scoring performance.
Today's WNBA moneyline combo
Lynx
Aces
Dream
Valkyries
Home-court advantage, stellar defense, and recent form are why I’m siding with favorites in today’s Game 1s.
If Aliyah Boston plays, I’m willing to trade the Fever at 39% straight up and as part of the four-leg combo, which would bring the multiplier up to 6.14x.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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