Star power is guaranteed as the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever square off this afternoon in a can't-miss first-round clash, with Caitlin Clark & Co. entering as 3.5-point underdogs against A’ja Wilson and the defending champs.
Las Vegas finished the regular season with four straight wins after the World Cup break, but my Fever vs. Aces prediction backs Indiana’s league-leading offense to make enough shots at Michelob ULTRA Arena and give this series an explosive start.
My WNBA picks take a closer look at this Sept. 27 showdown, with tip-off set for 4 p.m. ET on ABC.
Fever vs Aces prediction: Fever +3.5
The prospect of facing the defending champions in the opening round would faze some teams, but not the Indiana Fever. They pushed the Las Vegas Aces to the brink in a five-game battle last year without Caitlin Clark, and they've already won twice at Michelob ULTRA Arena this season.
The favorite hasn't covered the spread in regulation in any of the past five meetings between these squads, so I'll grab the points in a matchup that feels like a coin flip. Indiana expects to have Aliyah Boston available to handle the A'ja Wilson assignment, and the Aces superstar was limited to 40% shooting in two outings against the Fever this year.
These have been the top two offenses in the WNBA in 2026 (Indiana at 96 ppg and Las Vegas at 91.5 ppg), but the playoff intensity should take a bite out of those numbers. In that cauldron, I like the one-two punch of Clark and Kelsey Mitchell to drill enough 3-pointers to keep a road win within reach, and the visitors are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.
I'd bet this up to 53%, or a +3 or +2.5 at a better price.
COVERS INTEL: The 3-point line is an important edge for the Fever, who led the WNBA in 3P% this season, while the Aces ranked in the Bottom 5 in 3PA per game. That's Indiana's trump card for surviving cold spells.
Fever vs Aces combo
As good as these offenses are, the firepower hasn't generally translated to shootouts in head-to-head clashes. The Under is 7-3 in the teams' past 10 meetings, and the totals fell well short of this 181.5 line in two of the three matchups this season.
The Under is also 8-2 in the Aces' past 10 games, with Becky Hammon's squad holding opponents below the 80-point mark throughout their six-game win streak. That game script should also bolster rebound tallies for both frontcourts, and Wilson has extra work to do on the glass without NaLyssa Smith alongside her.
The 2025 MVP and Finals MVP has hauled in 10 boards in back-to-back outings, and I'm expecting an uptick on her regular-season workload (32.0 MPG) in this series. Wilson ended up with a combined 25 rebounds across two contests against the Fever this year.
Fever vs Aces combo
- Fever +3.5
- Under 181.5
- A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Fever vs Aces player prop: Caitlin Clark Over 22.5 points
Clark is on a mission to make up for lost time after injury kept her off the court in the 2025 playoffs, and she's blown past this number in five of her last six outings.
The final stat line may not be pretty, with Clark's 3-point stroke looking a little streaky since the World Cup, but she's almost automatic at the free-throw line, and I'm penciling her in for 18-20 shots in this game.
Clark is shooting a career-best 45% from the field this season, and there should be enough good looks here with Mitchell's shotmaking preventing Las Vegas from loading up on Clark.
- Top picks: 12-12, -1.37 units
- Combos: 6-18, +2.40 units
Fever vs Aces odds
- Spread: Fever +3.5 (49%) | Aces -3.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Fever 39% | Aces 61%
- Over/Under: Over 181.5 (51%) | Under 181.5 (50%)
Fever vs Aces trend
The Under is 13-9 in the Aces' home games this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Fever vs Aces
| Location | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, Nev. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Fever vs Aces latest injuries
Fever: Caitlin Clark G (Probable), Aliyah Boston C (Questionable), Tyasha Harris G (Out).
Aces: NaLyssa Smith F (Out), Dana Evans G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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