The WNBA playoffs are here — and the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx tip off their first-round series tonight, with the hosts eyeing a somewhat under-the-radar championship push.
If anyone is going to shake up the WNBA odds and prevent a Las Vegas Aces-New York Liberty WNBA Finals showdown, the Sun are the likeliest pick as the No. 3 seed — and they had the luxury of playing their starters limited minutes against the Chicago Sky in Sunday’s regular-season finale.
Before Connecticut starts looking too far ahead, it has to get past the Lynx, who stumbled into this postseason matchup, losing 87-72 to the Indiana Fever on the weekend and dropping to the No. 6 seed.
Check out my free WNBA picks for Lynx vs. Sun for a deep dive on tonight’s Game 1.
Lynx vs Sun Game 1 best odds
Lynx vs Sun Game 1 picks and predictions
Alyssa Thomas may not edge out A’Ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart on the WNBA MVP odds table this season, but she absolutely deserves to be in the conversation after guiding the Connecticut Sun to a 27-13 record.
Thomas racked up a league-high 27 double doubles this year along with a league-record six triple doubles, becoming the first-ever WNBA player to finish with more than 600 points, 400 rebounds, and 300 assists in a season.
I expect Thomas to be the focal point for the Sun as they start their playoff run tonight and that means stuffing the stat sheet while sharing the scoring burden with veteran DeWanna Bonner.
With Connecticut locked into the No. 3 seed, Thomas was able to cruise through the September schedule, and she should be fresh after logging just 16 minutes on Sunday. That’s good news for head coach Stephanie White, who may need 35+ minutes from her do-it-all forward here.
Tonight I see a return to Thomas’ August dominance, where she recorded nine DDs and put up a 21-20-12 line against the Lynx. She scored 16 or more points in three of the four games against Minnesota this year and had at least nine rebounds in each of those contests.
Thomas will have the ball early and often in Game 1, with the Sun sweating on a few injury doubts, and I like these odds for Connecticut’s leader to take over tonight.
My best bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 points + Over 6.5 rebounds (+110 at bet365)
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Lynx vs Sun Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis
There’s a clear sense that the Sun will waste no time taking control of this series, with Connecticut entering as a nine-point favorite. The hosts won three of the four matchups against Minnesota this year — two of those wins were by a double-digit margin — and they’re 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days’ rest.
That feels ominous for the visitors, who’ve been a steady road team (finishing 10-10 on their travels) but wrapped up the regular season with a pair of losses, including a dismal defeat to the Fever that dumped Minnesota into this tough first-round series. The Lynx are going to need monster games from McBride and Napheesa Collier to keep the score close.
An Over/Under line of 159.5 reflects the intensity of postseason action. Two of the four regular season battles between these teams comfortably hit the Over, but it’s fair to expect a slower pace and more defensive physicality here in Game 1.
Even so, the trends point to the Over, which is 5-1 in Connecticut’s last six games against Western Conference opponents and 7-2 in Minnesota’s past nine outings. It’s also 6-2 in the teams’ last eight meetings.
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Lynx vs Sun betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Sun's past six contests against teams with a losing record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sun.
Lynx vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Wednesday, September 13, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN 2 |
Lynx vs Sun key injuries
Lynx: Lindsay Allen G (Out), Jessica Shepard F (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Sun: Tiffany Hayes G (Probable), DiJonai Carrington G (Questionable), Bernadett Hatar C (Questionable), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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