The New York Liberty have had an extended break to tighten the bolts after back-to-back losses as big favorites ahead of tonight's clash with the visiting Phoenix Mercury, who lost by nearly 30 points in Connecticut on Tuesday.
Here's a bold Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: Phoenix, on the second half of a back-to-back, will have a rough time in New York.
Liberty forward Jonquel Jones will be an especially unwelcoming host. Her feasting on a depleted Mercury frontcourt highlights my WNBA picks for tonight's battle in Brooklyn.
Mercury vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Jonquel Jones Over 12.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
A depleted Phoenix Mercury lineup is put to the test in New York tonight coming off an embarrassing loss to Connecticut on Tuesday.
The Mercury were already missing star center Brittney Griner, but could also be without forward Rebecca Allen and guard Sug Sutton — both of whom sat out versus the Sun. That left first-year head coach Nate Tibbets to lean on his bench with three reserves logging 19 or more minutes.
The shorthanded Phoenix frontcourt was bullied inside by the Sun’s forwards, allowing 36 of 70 points to come inside the paint. The New York Liberty have just as dangerous a forward corps and center Jonquel Jones is extra hungry after a pair of down games led to back-to-back losses.
After averaging more than 17 points through the first four games, Jones finished with scoring efforts of four and eight points in the Liberty’s losses to Chicago and Minnesota. Foul trouble also limited her minutes in those contests, logging 21 and 28 minutes.
New York has enjoyed some added practice time to right the ship with an emphasis on spacing the offense following a 67-point effort in the loss to the Lynx this past weekend. Jones told reporters that the lack of spacing congested the interior and forced the team to settle for outside shots, rather than get high-percentage looks at the rim.
Along with getting pushed around in the paint, Phoenix is also getting battered on the boards. The Mercury have allowed 9.3 offensive rebounds per game and rank fourth in second-chance points allowed (13.7). Jones leads the Liberty in second-chance points (3.3) and towers over a thin Phoenix frontcourt underneath the hoop.
Her scoring prop for Wednesday’s home date with Phoenix sits as low as 12.5 O/U and player projections range from 13 points to closer to 16 from the former MVP. My projection comes out to 13.5 points from Jones, with a high ceiling considering the shape of the Mercury right now.
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Mercury vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Jonquel Jones 10+ points
Sabrina Ionescu 5+ assists
Liberty team total Over 21.5 1Q points
Not all books have all markets available for SGPs, so I’ll head to bet365 and play Jones’ milestone market to score at least double digits tonight with projections calling for 13 or more points.
The Liberty will want to push the pace against a tired Mercury team, which means Sabrina Ionescu will lead the fastbreak. Models call for as many as six assists.
During the team’s 4-0 start to the season, the Liberty exploded out of the gates in the first quarter. Those opening efforts have cooled but with a few days to practice and Phoenix sucking wind, I like New York to start with a bang Wednesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Liberty odds
Mercury vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +13 (-110) | New York -13 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +650 | New York -1,000
- Over/Under: Over 167 (-110) | Under 167 (-110)
Mercury vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- Before the Mercury faced the Sun on Tuesday, WNBA odds had a look-ahead line of New York -13 for the second of back-to-back games for Phoenix.
- After the one-sided loss to Connecticut, books have bumped this spread to as high as -14.
- My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of Liberty -11 before adjusting for injuries and the situational spot.
- The Over/Under total opened between 166.5 and 167.5 points before Phoenix took the floor in Connecticut. After last night’s result, the total has ticked up as high as 170 points.
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Mercury vs Liberty trend
The Over is 5-1 in the Mercury's last six games playing with no rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Liberty.
Mercury vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 29, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Mercury vs Liberty latest injuries
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Out), Rebecca Allen F (Questionable), Sug Sutton G (Questionable)
Liberty: None
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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