Less than 10 days into the WNBA season, just three teams remain with an undefeated record. But one of them will fall on Friday, as two of those squads, the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun, face off tonight on Thursday, May 23.
The Sun come in as significant WNBA odds favorites, but my Lynx vs. Sun prediction suspects the Lynx may be undervalued.
My WNBA picks take stock of both teams’ strengths as well as Minnesota’s unusual rest advantage.
Lynx vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Lynx +6 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The WNBA is a rapidly changing league, so it’s almost more of a surprise to see a team come back with its core players all still together than it is to see them disperse to the four corners of the earth every 12 months.
The Connecticut Sun have kept their core together for years now, with Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and Brionna Jones forming one of the more formidable trios in the entire league.
But while younger, the continuity of the Minnesota Lynx should not be underestimated either. Not only do they have the league’s longest-tenured coach and a system and consistency that comes with it, but they’ve also been steadily adding to the core around Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride, who have been with the team four straight seasons now.
The Sun have been impressive to open the season, no doubt why they’re being made as high as -6.5 point favorites on Thursday. But they also haven’t really been tested.
Connecticut is 3-0, but two games came against the talented but highly inexperienced Indiana Fever, and their third came against the Washington Mystics, who lost both Natasha Cloud and Elena Delle Donne this season.
The Lynx, meanwhile, won both their games against the newly minted superteam trio of Jewell Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Nneka Ogwumike of the Seattle Storm. Beating any team twice in a row is difficult, but Lynx showed tenacity at the point of attack, and an offense built around Collier is enough to beat the most talented teams in the W.
Also, due to a quirk in the early W schedule, the Lynx haven’t played since May 17, giving them nearly a full week to prepare for this game. As such, not only should they be well rested, but their rotations and coverages should have been thoroughly drilled.
The Sun are deserving favorites, so I won’t go as far to pick the Lynx to win outright on Thursday. But it wouldn’t shock me if they won either, as Minnesota found a real two-way identity down the stretch of last season that has only been bolstered by the addition of Courtney Williams at the point.
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Lynx vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx +6.5
Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 assists
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 rebounds
Thomas has come out like a house on fire to open this W season, with averages of 16.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists. A triple-double threat on every night she plays, Thomas is playing like someone who feels particularly sore not to have won last year’s MVP.
She plays like a point guard at the forward spot, bruising her way inside and making passes in tight windows to open Sun shooters. Thomas is likely to hurt the Lynx on the glass in this one as Minnesota continues to feel the absence of Jessica Shepard, who remains with her Italian club.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Sun odds
Lynx vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +6.5 (-112) | Connecticut -6.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +240 | Connecticut -310
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Lynx vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Connecticut opened as low as 5.5-point favorites over Minnesota, but that’s risen to between -6 and -6.5 across the board as of Thursday morning.
- Minnesota is coming in unusually rested for this game, and the Lynx are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played on at least three days of rest.
- Thursday’s total opened at 165.5, unsurprisingly given both team's respective defensive reputations that’s dropped to between 162.5 and 163.5.
- The Over is 5-1 in Sun's last six games.
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Lynx vs Sun trend
Lynx are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sun.
Lynx vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Boston, Bally Sports North |
Lynx vs Sun latest injuries
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Sun: Text.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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