Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Aces Avenge Previous Loss to Sun

Can anyone stop the Las Vegas Aces?

Dubbed “The Battle of the Super Teams,” Thursday’s game saw the Aces walk away with a 98-81 rout over the New York Liberty — now the Eastern Conference's other contender, the 12-4 Connecticut Sun, get a crack at the champs today.

The kicker? It just so happens that the 14-1 Aces only loss this season came against Connecticut back on June 8, so you know the Aces, who are currently a double-digit favorite today by WNBA odds, will be out to avenge the only blemish on their storybook season thus far.

Our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Aces think that revenge will be on the menu today, as Las Vegas is going to be too much for a Sun team missing Brionna Jones.

Sun vs Aces best odds

Sun vs Aces picks and predictions

The Las Vegas Aces have been a marvel of consistency this season. It’s pretty normal for a team coming off its first championship to stumble out of the gates, either due to the weight of heightened expectations or the flaring of new dynamics as star contributors jockey to receive more spotlight. But the Aces aren’t just as good as they were last year...

...they’re way, way better.

Indeed, they’ve been historically good, as their utter domination of the equally talented (but not yet as coherent) Liberty just demonstrated. While the Aces have been known for their plethora of dominant scorers, both on the perimeter and inside, that win highlighted how it’s their defense that has the potential to carry them to previously unknown heights in WNBA lore.

With apologies to the Washington Mystics, it’s a real possibility that the Aces finish as the league's best defensive team by season's end.

What does that mean for Saturday’s matinee matchup against the Connecticut Sun? These two teams have played twice this year already, with the Aces winning narrowly once and the Sun handing the Aces their only loss of the season (a 94-77 blowout no less) in the other, but in the intervening time, the Aces have only gotten better, while the Sun have gotten worse — albeit through no fault of their own.

Connecticut is a team that stylistically presents a few problems for the Aces... at full strength. The Sun play tough and are bigger and stronger at a few key positions. They don’t shoot a lot of threes, but they get to the line and impose their style of play on opposing teams.

However, that gets much harder to do with the tragic loss of Brionna Jones for the season after she tore her Achilles last week.

Jones’ workmanlike game and dominating physical presence were key factors in both previous matchups vs. Las Vegas, and she was responsible for 55 combined points, rebounds, and assists across those two games. It also takes the Sun from a “Big Three” down to a “Big Two” of DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.

There’s no magic solution that can replace her production on both sides of the ball, and it gives one of A’ja Wilson or Candace Parker a potentially decisive matchup advantage in the starting lineup. While Thomas has been a Top-5 player in the league this year and Bonner already burned the Aces for 41 points earlier this season — which against most teams, is more than enough to compete (and frequently dominate) — but the Aces are the exception.

I believe the levels they’re hitting on defense at the moment will ultimately see them pull away for a comfortable win today.

My best bet: Aces -11.5 (-110)

Sun vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Saturday’s game has been set at Aces -11.5, and because of the early tip time, I don’t expect too much movement. There aren’t many relevant trends to consider for Saturday’s game, so instead I’ll go over another key reason why I'm backing the Aces — defense is the main reason that the Aces should cover this line, it’s far from the only one.

How do the Sun hope to guard the Aces' backcourt?

Jackie Young has been incredible all season long, but it hasn’t been until relatively recently that we’ve seen Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray hit the high levels they set during last year's championship run. The Sun have the personnel to handle two of that trio if they’re hot, but no team outside of the Mystics has three All-Defense caliber perimeter defenders.

Add in Parker finding her way on offense again and they become nearly untouchable. And of course, I’m certain that just as they clearly had the game against New York circled on the calendar, A’ja & Co. have been itching to get revenge for that June blowout loss.

The Total for today's game has been set at 168.5, which is among the highest lines I’ve seen all season. The trends support it as well, with the Over cashing in seven of Connecticut’s last nine games, but these are two of the three best defensive teams in basketball and a trend that has carried through from last season is that the Sun play stingy on the road: The Under has gone 10-4 in their last 14 road games.

When the Aces have gone over, it’s typically because they’ve blown their opponent out and things have gotten silly down the stretch. Even though I expect the Aces to win by double digits, I expect this game to be largely competitive. I’d lean Under at this high a number.

Sun vs Aces betting trend to know

The Under has gone 10-4 in Connecticut's last 14 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces.

Sun vs Aces game info

Sun vs Aces key injuries

Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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