The Phoenix Mercury will look to extend their league-best six-game winning streak as they host the Las Vegas Aces at PHX Arena tonight.
I’m taking Phoenix to cover the spread again tonight in my Aces vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks for Sunday, June 29.
Aces vs Mercury predictions
My Aces vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -6.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
The Phoenix Mercury are on a roll, as their recent run has propelled them to the second-best record in the WNBA at 12-4.
By deploying a smaller lineup for most of its games, Phoenix has created mismatches to solve most opposing defenses, with seven different players scoring at least eight points per game.
But Phoenix's real success has come from the defensive side. The Mercury rank third in defensive rating (98.1) and are holding opponents to a stingy 42.8% shooting from the field and 31.8% from 3-point range.
Phoenix is allowing 79.0 points per game, fourth-lowest in the WNBA, despite playing at the second-fastest pace in the league behind only the New York Liberty.
That defense will have to show up tonight to contain three-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson, who is averaging 21.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Outside of Wilson, however, the Las Vegas Aces haven’t been the same dominant team we’ve been used to seeing in recent years.
Some of that is clearly linked to the trade sending Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks in the offseason. But that hasn’t fully explained their difficulties scoring in the paint or what seems like a lack of chemistry.
Overall, the Aces are shooting only 40.7% from the field and have been surprisingly poor on the boards, as their rebounding percentage of 47.7% is second-worst in the league, only beating out the Connecticut Sun (a shockingly low 44.7%).
In stark contrast to Phoenix, Las Vegas has seen its defensive metrics suffer this year, as the Aces are allowing 82.1 PPG. While they’ve never kept opponents from scoring, given their high-tempo style under Becky Hammon, their defensive rating has fallen to ninth this year.
The Mercury are playing an outstanding brand of basketball and have covered in five of their last six games, including their prior meeting with the Aces. I don’t see Phoenix having any trouble winning again tonight, so I’m taking the Mercury to cover.
Aces vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury -6
Under 168
Satou Sabally 15+ points
The total is likely influenced by the run of high-scoring games we’ve seen out of Phoenix as of late, as the Mercury have hit the Over in seven of their last eight games. But the one exception was the last meeting with the Aces, which ended in a total of just 146 points.
I expect a similar game tonight, which makes me feel comfortable taking the Under at a relatively high number.
Satou Sabally has been a bit up and down with her scoring, but has hit the 15-point mark in 11 of her last 12 games. That’s enough of a run that this feels like a great value add for our parlay.
Aces vs Mercury odds
Aces vs Mercury live odds
Aces vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +6 (-110) | Phoenix -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +205 | Phoenix -250
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)
Aces vs Mercury trend
The Aces are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mercury.
How to watch Aces vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, 6-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona's Family 3TV, Vegas 34 |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Las Vegas: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (Out), Megan Gustafson C (Out).
Phoenix: Lexi Held G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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