Highly-regarded middleweight veterans Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze move up to the light-heavyweight division in search of greener pastures as both men look to establish themselves in their new weight class in the featured bout of UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on Saturday in Sacramento.
Despite being on a two-fight losing skid, current UFC odds still favor de Ridder by a wide margin, placing the Dutch submission ace as a -400 betting favorite over Georgia’s Roman Dolidze.
Although I do agree that de Ridder should be able to get his hand raised on Saturday, -400 doesn’t leave a ton of value, so we’ll be looking elsewhere than the moneyline in this week's official Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder predictions and free betting picks for August 22.
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Who will win: de Ridder to win by Decision | +125 |
| Best bet: Over 2.5 Total Rounds | -135 |
| Prop: Fight Goes The Distance | -110 |
Who will win Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder: de Ridder to win by Decision +125
After starting his UFC career 3-0 with all three victories coming inside the distance, Reinier de Ridder has proven not to be the potent finisher that everyone believed him to be. His last three fights have been against a step-up in competition, and it’s resulted in three straight fights that have gone three rounds or more.
His opponent, Roman Dolidze, has been inconsistent at times, but historically, he’s been very difficult to put away. In 5 career defeats, the Georgian bruiser has only ever been finished once, and that was a 4th-round submission loss against Anthony Hernandez, who now finds himself headlining this card.
This fight is only a three-round bout, so from that perspective, Dolidze has been finished in three rounds or less, and I doubt it will happen for the first time on Saturday. Instead, de Ridder will secure takedowns and soften him up, but inevitably will run out of time and settle for a decision win.
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder best bet: Over 2.5 Total Rounds -135
As outlined above, de Ridder’s most likely path of victory is a decision; however, the Over 2.5 rounds in general is a much safer play.
First off, we only need this fight to go 12:30 minutes instead of the full 15, and considering both guys have shown vulnerabilities late in fights, this could help quite a bit.
Secondly, if Dolidze springs the upset, he, too, isn’t likely to finish de Ridder in fewer than 2.5 rounds. Five of Dolidze’s last seven fights have gone to decision, with the two outliers being a 4th-round finish and a TKO due to injury.
He’s got some decent power in his punches, but he’s now moving up to 205 pounds, where his power will be diminished. De Ridder is also moving up a class, and without having to cut weight, should be more than fine to take a few shots.
This thing is going over 2.5 regardless of who wins.
COVERS INTEL: 6 of the last 7 Roman Dolidze fights have gone Over 2.5 total rounds, while de Ridder has hit Over 2.5 total rounds in his last 3.Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder prop pick: Fight Goes the Distance -110
This is much the same as the “best bet”, other than greed. Personally, I feel a lot better taking Over 2.5 total rounds at -135 than sweating out the last two and a half minutes to save 25 points on the line.
That being said, this fight should be headed to a decision, and in a game of margins, some might prefer the -110 line.
Neither man is necessarily the most potent finisher when facing legit competition, and considering they are both moving up a weight class, a bad weight cut or a hidden injury seems less likely.
Both of their respective win conditions hinge on taking the fight into deeper waters, and seeing how it’s only scheduled as a three-round affair, I don’t foresee either guy scoring a finish inside 15 minutes.
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Roman Dolidze | Reinier de Ridder |
| To win outright | +295 | -425 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +725 | +475 |
| To win by decision | +1000 | +120 |
| To win by submission | +1550 | +240 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -140 |
Under 2.5 +110 |
Odds as of 8-22.
Considering the moneyline on de Ridder is -400, I would be willing to play the de Ridder by-decision prop down to -110 if need be. As for the over 2.5 total rounds at -135, I would still play it all the way to -155.
If it got any worse than that, but the “Fight Goes the Distance” number stayed at -110, I would then be much more interested in just pivoting off to that.
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Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder tale of the tape
| Roman Dolidze | Reinier de Ridder | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 76 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 15-5 | Record | 21-4 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 13 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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