Top-10 ranked middleweight contenders battle it out on Saturday in Sacramento when Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez takes on Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the Golden 1 Center.
Current UFC odds favor the Sacramento native Hernandez at -170, and I will also be backing the grappling standout to wear down and outlast his Brazilian foe in my official Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues predictions and free betting picks for Aug. 22.
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues predictions for UFC Fight Night
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Who will win Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues: Hernandez -170
After winning eight straight fights in the UFC in large part due to his wrestling and submission grappling attack, Hernandez inexplicably decided to use neither of those two things in a lopsided defeat to Sean Strickland.
Since that loss, the 32-year-old has revamped his training camp, moving to Las Vegas to train with Strickland.
He’s always been a cardio machine who thrives in five-round fights, but the setback was likely a blessing in disguise, as a change in scenery for his training and a reality check were much needed.
Expect a career-best version of him on Saturday, as he weaponizes his pace and ground skills once again to ultimately drown Gregory Rodrigues and get back in the win column.
Play this to -185.
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues best bet: Over 3.5 rounds +170
With 12 of his 15 pro wins coming inside the distance, Hernandez is definitely a proven finisher, but his style lends more towards a slow-burn — oftentimes resulting in fights getting into the later rounds.
This isn’t a bad thing: Cardio is actually one of his biggest strengths, but he generally has to wear down opponents before finding the finish after they give in to exhaustion.
In his last three wins inside the octagon, he’s scored fourth- and fifth-round stoppages over Michel Pereira and Roman Dolidze, respectively, plus a decision win over Brendan Allen.
This matchup looks like it should be much of the same, with both men matching each other skill-wise in the early portion before it devolves into a battle of wills that results in a finish sometime after the Over 3.5 total rounds.
Play to +150.
COVERS INTEL: Despite having 10 wins in the UFC, Gregory Rodrigues is actually 0-1 against Top-20 ranked opponents. Hernandez vs Rodrigues prop pick: Hernandez by TKO +300
Hernandez is definitely more of a submission threat, with 9 of his 15 pro wins coming by tapout; however, opponent Gregory Rodrigues is also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has never been submitted.
Instead, look for “Fluffy” to soften Rodrigues up on the ground before exhausting him and landing a barrage of unanswered blows to force a TKO stoppage late in the fight.
Notably, the 34-year-old “Robocop” has been stopped by strikes four times in his career and has never fought a fifth round. The longest he’s ever competed was when he made it into the fourth round against Jared Cannonier last year, but he completely ran out of gas in that fight and was finished just 21 seconds into that round.
Play to +250.
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Anthony Hernandez | Gregory Rodrigues |
| To win outright | -170 | +150 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +300 | +225 |
| To win by decision | +425 | +575 |
| To win by submission | +315 | +1350 |
| Total rounds | Over 3.5 +170 |
Under 3.5 -230 |
Odds as of 8-20.
Money has been coming in on Hernandez all week, pushing him to -170. I don't see it moving much farther in his direction, but I think he has plenty of value to KO Rodrigues at the current price.
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Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues tale of the tape
| Anthony Hernandez | Gregory Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 15-3 | Record | 19-6 |
| 3 | Wins by KO | 12 |
| 9 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Gregory Rodriues has the height advantage, but both fighters have matching 75-inch reaches. As mentioned, Hernandez often wins more by submission, but there's a real path to Rodrigues going to sleep on Saturday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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